聯合國研究表明減排不會影響增長

The risk of runaway climate change can be avoided without seriously denting global economic growth, scientists forecast in the most comprehensive report on global warming yet published.

科學家們在迄今最全面的全球變暖報告中預測，人類可以在不嚴重影響全球經濟增長的前提下避免氣候變化失控的風險。

Huge cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, bringing them nearly to zero by the end of this century, need not derail growth says the study by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s leading authority on global warming.

全球變暖的權威機構——聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會(IPCC)的研究顯示，大幅削減溫室氣體排放，在本世紀末將其降低到接近於零的水平，未必影響經濟增長。

Without such deep reductions, there is a danger of more frequent and intense extreme weather, along with rising sea levels and other impacts of a changing climate, the report says. This will add costs that “cannot even be quantified”, said panel chairman, Dr Rajendra Pachauri, at the launch of the study in Copenhagen yesterday.

報告稱，如果不進行這樣的大幅削減，就有出現更頻繁、更劇烈的極端天氣的危險，加上海平面不斷上升和其他氣候變化影響。IPCC主席拉津德•帕喬裏(Rajendra Pachauri)博士昨日在哥本哈根舉行的報告發佈會上表示，這將進一步增加“根本無法量化”的代價。

Global temperatures have already risen by nearly 1C since the industrial revolution and governments agreed in 2010 that warming should not exceed 2C, a threshold scientists say it is risky to breach.

自工業革命以來全球氣溫已上升了近1℃，各國政府在2010年同意全球變暖不應超過2℃，科學家們表示，突破這個門檻將有失控風險。

Sticking to this limit need only cause an average annual 0.06 percentage point cut in the rate of global consumption, a proxy of economic growth, the IPCC says.

IPCC表示，要把升溫幅度限制在這個限度內，只會導致全球年均消費增長率（代表經濟增長）減少0.06個百分點。

That still implies big demands on some nations, said a co-author of the report, Dr Ottmar Edenhofer from Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “That is an average figure. For some countries this could be quite a huge challenge,” he said, pointing to big oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia and African countries planning to exploit their fossil fuel reserves.

報告作者之一、德國波茨坦氣候影響研究所(Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)的奧特馬爾•埃登霍費爾(Ottmar Edenhofer)博士表示，這對部分國家來說仍意味着很高的要求。他說：“這是個平均數字。對部分國家來說這個數字可能是相當大的挑戰。”埃登霍費爾提到了大型石油出口國，如沙特阿拉伯和幾個計劃開採化石燃料儲量的非洲國家。

Another IPCC co-author, Professor Richard Tol of the University of Sussex in the UK, who claimed earlier panel reports were too “alarmist”, said it was possible to question the 0.06 percentage point number in the latest report and how it was derived.

IPCC報告的另一名合著者、曾表示IPCC早先的報告太過“危言聳聽”的英國蘇塞克斯大學(University of Sussex)教授理查德•托爾(Richard Tol)表示，最新報告提出的0.06個百分點這一數字以及該數字的得出過程仍有質疑空間。

But he added: “Such quibbles would be beside the point. It has been long known that smart policy can reduce greenhouse gas emissions at a small cost, even for deep cuts.”

但他也表示：“這樣的爭辯不是關鍵。人們早就知道，明智的政策能以較低成本削減、甚至大幅削減溫室氣體排放。”

The trouble was that smart policy would be a carbon tax that was equal for all emissions from all emitters, he said, and “all evidence to date is that governments compete on who can think of the daftest climate policies”, such as subsidies and tax breaks.

他表示，麻煩在於，明智的政策是對所有排放者的所有排放徵收相同的碳排放稅，但“迄今的所有證據顯示，各國政府競相拿出最離譜的氣候政策，”比如補貼和稅收減免。

The tone of the IPCC’s latest study is more urgent than previous reports.

IPCC最新的這份研究報告在語氣上比之前的報告更加迫切。

It repeats earlier findings that humans have been the dominant cause of the warmer temperatures measured since the 1950s, which are already raising sea levels and melting ice caps.

該報告重複了之前的發現，即人類活動是上世紀50年代起測得的氣溫升高的主要原因，氣溫變暖已引起海平面上升和冰蓋融化。

Governments have little time to waste, the IPCC says.

IPCC表示，各國政府已沒有時間可以浪費。

“Delaying additional mitigation to 2030 will substantially increase the technological, economic, social and institutional challenges associated with limiting the warming over the 21st century to below 2C relative to pre-industrial levels,” it said yesterday.

IPCC昨日表示：“把進一步減排措施推遲到2030年實施，將顯著增加在21世紀將升溫幅度限制在相對於工業化之前水平不到2℃的技術、經濟、社會和體制挑戰。”