陸克文:中國新一代領導人將極具改革思想

China's incoming leadership will be strongly reform minded on the economy and usher in a new era of diplomacy in the region, Australia's former prime minister and longtime China watcher Kevin Rudd said Thursday.

澳大利亞前總理、長期關注中國的陸克文(Kevin Rudd)週四說，中國新一代領導人將極具經濟改革思想，並將在亞太地區開啓新的外交時代。

As territorial disputes between China and Japan escalate, Chinese leaders also face numerous challenges, including the flight of capital among the nation's wealthy and a slowing economy, Mr. Rudd told The Wall Street Journal. However, he expressed confidence in the ability of Xi Jinping, the presumed next leader, and his team to manage domestic challenges and foreign relations, calling him 'the sort of leader that the Americans can do business with.'

相關報道陸克文對《華爾街日報》說，隨着中日領土爭端升級，中國領導人也面臨着諸多挑戰，包括中國富人中出現的資本外逃和不斷放緩的經濟。不過，他表示對習近平及其團隊管理國內挑戰和外交關係的能力有信心，稱習近平是美國人可以與之打交道的那種領導人。外界預計習近平將成爲中國下一任最高領導人。

The U.S. has sought to expand its influence in Asia to counterbalance China's growing regional clout, announcing plans to increase its naval presence in the Pacific and sending top officials to canvass the region. Such moves have complicated relations between the two powerhouses, but Mr. Rudd-who said that when he was Australia's prime minister, he spent much time with Mr. Xi-said he anticipates Mr. Xi's rise will help alleviate such tensions.

美國一直尋求擴大在亞洲的影響，以便制衡中國不斷增強的地區影響力，美國宣佈了擴大在太平洋地區海軍部署的計劃，並派出高層官員在該地區進行遊說。這類舉措令中美兩個大國之間的關係變得更加複雜，但陸克文說，他預測習近平升任最高領導人將有助於緩解這類緊張關係。陸克文說，在他擔任澳大利亞總理期間，他與習近平的接觸很多。

'I believe that Xi Jinping will want to work…with the Americans on a common road map for the region's future,' Mr. Rudd said in the interview, which came at the end of a two-week trip to China and Hong Kong. Mr. Xi's ascension will allow the U.S. and China to 'carve out a different period of strategic cooperation.'

週四，澳大利亞前總理陸克文在香港講話。陸克文在接受採訪時說，我認爲習近平將希望與美國人攜手爲亞太地區的未來制定一張共同的路線圖。陸克文是在爲期兩週的中國內地和香港訪問之行即將結束時接受的採訪。他說，習近平升任最高領導人將使美國和中國能夠開啓一個不同的戰略合作時期。

Mr. Rudd said he expects further privatization of Chinese state-owned firms after the new leadership takes over, in part to address private-sector companies' concerns about their business prospects, which has led to some capital outflows. He also expects further currency liberalization and said that change is necessary, because the current growth model can't sustain full employment in China.

陸克文說，他預計在新一代領導人接班後，中國國有企業將進一步私有化，這在一定程度上是爲了消除私營部門企業對其業務前景的擔憂（這種擔憂導致部分資本外流）。他還預計人民幣匯率會進一步市場化，並說改變是必要的，因爲目前的經濟增長模式無法在中國維持充分就業。

His comments on the leadership transition in Australia's biggest trading partner come as speculation intensifies at home about Mr. Rudd's own political ambitions. The 55-year-old former diplomat is fluent in Mandarin and has strong ties to the region, including a stint as a diplomat in Beijing. He served as Australia's prime minister from 2007 until he was ousted by members of his ruling Labor Party in June 2010. He also served as foreign minister until earlier this year and remains a member of Parliament.

在陸克文就澳大利亞最大的貿易伙伴中國的領導人換屆發表評論之際，澳大利亞國內圍繞陸克文本人的政治抱負的猜測正在加劇。這位55歲的前外交官能說流利的普通話，與中國有着強有力的聯繫，包括曾在北京擔任外交官。2007年，他就任澳大利亞總理，2010年6月，他被其所在的執政黨工黨(Labor Party)的成員趕下臺。直到今年早些時候之前，他還曾擔任外交部長，目前仍是議會議員。

Mr. Rudd on Thursday also acknowledged the deep-seated historical debate over islands disputed between Japan and China, which have recently sent jitters through the region's markets.

陸克文週四還提到了在中日爭議島嶼問題上存在的根深蒂固的歷史論戰。中日領土爭端最近攪動了該地區的市場。

'Japan effectively took these islands from China in 1895 after the Sino-Japanese war. Then after the American occupation of Japan, Americans returned these islands to the Japanese,' he said. 'So there's a large degree of international legal complexity underpinning all this.' Still, while tempers have flared, he said he expects both governments to try to buy time to reduce tensions.

他說，1895年中日戰爭後，日本實際佔據了這些島嶼，後來美國佔領日本後，美國人將這些島嶼歸還給了日本人，所以在這一切的背後有着非常複雜的國際法律問題。不過，在緊張局勢升溫之際，陸克文說他預計中日兩國政府將努力爭取時間來緩解緊張關係。

Within resource-rich Australia, concerns have been rising about the extent of the influence of China, the world's second-largest economy. Mr. Rudd stressed the strength of the two nations' relationship, but also highlighted main differences such as China's one-party rule.

在資源豐富的澳大利亞，人們對世界第二大經濟體中國影響力的擔憂日益加劇。陸克文強調指出，中澳兩國關係相當牢固，但也點明瞭兩國之間的主要分歧，比如中國的一黨制。

China's insatiable demand for resources has helped drive Australia's economic boom in the past few years, but demand has faltered as China's economy slows. Iron-ore prices have recently fallen to multiyear lows, raising the threat of a hard landing for Australia's mining industry.

過去幾年，中國難以滿足的資源需求一直在助推澳大利亞的經濟飛速發展，但隨着中國經濟增長放緩，其資源需求有所減弱。最近鐵礦石價格連創多年來的新低，澳大利亞礦業出現了硬着陸的危險。

Australia is currently the largest destination for foreign-direct investment from China.

澳大利亞目前是中國最大的對外直接投資目的地。

'We've had a significant correction in commodity prices, but what we're seeking to do in the meantime in Australia…is to broaden the base of the Australian economy,' Mr. Rudd said, including expanding its agriculture and financial and health services to meet Asian demand.

陸克文說，大宗商品價格一直在進行大幅修正，但與此同時我們力求在澳大利亞做的事就是擴大澳大利亞的經濟基礎，以便滿足亞洲的需求，包括擴大農業以及金融和醫療服務業。

In Australia, he remains popular in opinion polls even as he was again defeated in a challenge against incumbent leader Julia Gillard earlier this year. Mr. Rudd declined on Thursday to speculate about his future in Australian politics.

今年早些時候，陸克文在挑戰現任總理吉拉德(Julia Gillard)時再次失利，他如今在澳大利亞的民調中人氣依然很高。陸克文週四拒絕猜測他在澳大利亞政壇的未來。

'Polls go up, and polls go down. I've been around in politics long enough to know there's a certain law of gravity about all these things….I made a very clear statement on this at the conclusion of the leadership ballot in February,' Mr. Rudd said. 'My position hasn't changed.'

陸克文說，民調結果有起有落，我已經從政很久，我知道所有這一切的背後都有某種“萬有引力定律”在起作用；我在2月份的工黨領導人選舉投票結束時就此發表過非常明確的聲明，我的立場一直未變。

At the time, he said he would withdraw from front-line politics and not challenge Ms. Gillard again.

當時，陸克文說，他將從政壇一線退下來，不會再次挑戰吉拉德。

Still, Mr. Rudd's supporters say he could reignite his feud with the prime minister if Ms. Gillard doesn't significantly improve the Labor Party's popularity ahead of the next federal elections, which will take place by the end of 2013.

儘管如此，陸克文的支持者說，如果吉拉德在下屆聯邦選舉前沒有使工黨支持率得到明顯的提高，他可能會重新拉開與吉拉德的大戰。澳大利亞下屆聯邦選舉將在2013年年底前舉行。