塔利班在卡塔爾設聯絡處目的何在？

News that the Afghan Taliban will be opening an office in the Gulf state of Qatar triggered speculation about possible talks for a political settlement in Afghanistan, but analysts caution against excessive optimism about any deal.

有關阿富汗塔利班將在海灣國家卡塔爾開設聯絡處的消息引發了外界有關阿富汗各方可能會就政治解決方案展開談判的猜測。不過，分析人士警告說，不必對任何協議抱過份樂觀的態度。

Announcement of the Qatar office came in a statement earlier this month from the Taliban group believed to be based in Quetta, Pakistan. Many of the insurgents who attack U.S. and allied forces in Afghanistan have safe havens in Pakistan.

有關卡塔爾聯絡處的消息據信是總部設在巴基斯坦奎達的一個塔利班組織在本月早些時候的聲明中發出的。很多在阿富汗境內襲擊美軍和盟軍的武裝反叛分子在巴基斯坦擁有避難所。

Marvin Weinbaum of the Middle East Institute says the U.S. has been talking not only with the Taliban about opening a political office, but also has been prodding President Hamid Karzai to accept such a setup.

中東研究所的馬文•維恩鮑姆說，美國不僅在和塔利班探討開設政治聯絡處的事宜，同時也在敦促卡爾扎伊總統接受這項安排。

"I'm surprised it took so long," Weinbaum said. "This has been an American initiative."

他說：“我很奇怪事情拖了這麼久。這一直是美國的倡議。”

The U.S. currently plans to pull its combat troops out of Afghanistan by 2014, assuming that Afghan military and police forces are able to assume security responsibilities. Analysts say the Qatar office will give the U.S. a channel to talk to Taliban leaders in a neutral area.

美國目前計劃在2014年年底前從阿富汗撤出戰鬥部隊。該計劃假定阿富汗軍方和警方屆時可以承擔保安責任。分析人士說，卡塔爾辦公室可以爲美國在中立地區提供一個接觸塔利班的渠道。

Karzai said he agreed to the Qatar arrangement, but would have preferred a Taliban office in Turkey or Saudi Arabia. There is considerable suspicion that the Taliban is not really interested in a political settlement that would lead to some kind of power-sharing arrangement, such as division of government ministries.

卡爾扎伊總統說，他同意在卡塔爾的安排，但更加傾向於將塔利班辦公室設在土耳其或沙特阿拉伯。關於塔利班對於某種權力分享，比如政府各部分權的政治解決方案是否有興趣，目前尚存很多疑問。

"Why on earth would they compromise when their end goal is a sharia [Islamic law] state?" Weinbaum said. "They're Pashtuns, sure, but they're Islamists first."

中東研究所的馬文•維恩鮑姆說：“他們的目標是建立伊斯蘭政教合一的國家，那麼他們究竟爲什麼要接受妥協呢？他們的確是普什圖人，但他們首先是伊斯蘭教徒。”

U.S. officials have repeatedly said any political settlement should be "Afghan-led." But the Taliban pointedly made no mention of the Kabul government when it announced the Qatar oiffice. It said the two "main parties" in the conflict are the Taliban and the U.S. and its allies. It also called for the release of several key Taliban leaders from the U.S. detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

美國官員多次表示，任何政治解決方案都將由“阿富汗來主導”。但是，塔利班在宣佈設立卡塔爾聯絡處的時候，明顯地沒有提及喀布爾政府。這份聲明說，衝突的兩個“主要方面”是塔利班和美國及其盟友。聲明還呼籲美國釋放關押在古巴關塔納摩灣的幾名塔利班首腦。

The Taliban also made no mention of Pakistan, which sees itself as having a major interest in any political settlement in Afghanistan. Pakistan is an erstwhile ally of the U.S. in fighting extremism, but the U.S. has also accused Pakistan of supporting Taliban elements as a hedge against India's bid for political and economic influence in Afghanistan. The Washington-Islamabad relationship has deteriorated considerably in recent months.

塔利班在聲明中也沒有提及巴基斯坦。巴基斯坦認爲，阿富汗國內的任何政治解決方案都和巴基斯坦利益息息相關。巴基斯坦曾經是美國在打擊極端勢力中的盟友，但美國也曾指責巴基斯坦支持塔利班勢力，以此抗衡印度在阿富汗謀求政治和經濟影響力。最近幾個月，美國和巴基斯坦的關係顯著降溫。

Larry Goodson, a professor at the U.S. Army War College, said the Taliban considers the Karzai government illegitimate. He believes opening the liaison office is simply a bid by the Taliban to buy time until the U.S. and its allies leave Afghanistan.

美國陸軍軍事學院教授拉里•古德森說，塔利班並不認爲卡爾扎伊領導的是合法政府。古德森相信，開設聯絡處只不過是塔利班在美國及其盟國撤軍前採取的拖延戰術。"I think it's a gambit, if you will, by the Taliban, but also by their Pakistan supporters to prepare for the situation as the U.S. prepares to withdraw," he said. "I absolutely think they are trying to present themselves as independent from Pakistan. But having said that, I don't think they really are."

他說：“這是塔利班及其巴基斯坦支持者採取的一種伎倆，他們希望在美國準備撤軍的時候爲將來作出佈署。我絕對相信，塔利班試圖展示他們獨立於巴基斯坦。雖然這麼說，但我並不認爲他們果真如此。”

Goodson, who has long experience in Afghan-Pakistani affairs, also notes that Pakistan has supported one of the more lethal Taliban factions, the Haqqani network. He says it is possible Pakistan's intelligence service, the ISI, may play a double game, supporting one faction in negotiations while supporting the Haqqanis' military operations.

長期研究阿富汗和巴基斯坦事務的古德森還表示，巴基斯坦曾經支持過更加極端的塔利班派別哈卡尼網絡。他說，巴基斯坦的情報部門三軍情報局(ISI)可能正在玩一場兩頭下注的遊戲--在支持參與談判派別的同時也支持哈卡尼派別的武裝行動。

"[The Taliban] have us over a barrel because, regardless of any liaison office the Taliban seek, they still get rest and recuperation and resupply in Pakistan," Goodson said.

他說：“塔利班讓我們進退兩難。因爲不論塔利班尋求設立哪種聯絡處，他們都將爭取到時候在巴基斯坦養精蓄銳並重整旗鼓。”