別讓全球復甦夭折

Sometimes a few fractions of one percentage point make all the difference.

有的時候，差幾個基點，一切都不同了。

A year ago the International Monetary Fund predicted the global economy would grow at an average annual rate of 3.65 per cent between 2017 and 2021. This October it raised that forecast fractionally to 3.7 per cent. Almost no change in the most authoritative global economic forecast has, however, coincided with a sea change in optimism.

一年前，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預計，從2017年到2021年，全球經濟將會以年均3.65%的速度增長。今年10月，它將預測微幅提升至3.7%。這幾乎相當於沒變化，然而自從這個最具權威性的全球經濟預測做出這一微調以來，情緒的樂觀度出現了巨大變化。

Lamenting a “mediocre” world outlook in late 2016, Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, now talks of a period when countries must not “let a good recovery go to waste”.

IMF總裁克里斯蒂娜?拉加德(Christine Lagarde)曾在2016年末哀嘆世界的前景多麼“平庸”，現在她則談起眼下這個階段各國不能“浪費一場可喜的復甦”。

The change in mood is understand-able. For the first year since 2010, all the leading economies are expected to ex-pand in 2017, with none in recession. This is a feat achieved for only a few years in the mid-2000s, 1997 and 1987.

這種情緒改變是可以理解的。預計2017年所有的領先經濟體都將實現擴張，沒有一個陷入衰退，這是2010年以來的首次。之前只有2000年代中期的幾年、1997年和1987年取得了這樣的成就。

Many leading economies have also performed better than expected, particularly the eurozone, China and Japan. With confidence sky high, Paul Sheard, chief economist at S&P Global, the rating agency, says US president Donald Trump “has un-leashed animal spirits”. Mr Trump has also promised to supply the US with “rocket fuel” on an already decent growth rate by means of tax cuts and Jay Powell, the new Federal Reserve chairman, is highly unlikely to take away the punch bowl soon.

許多領先經濟體的表現也好於預期，尤其是歐元區、中國和日本。隨着信心高漲，評級機構標普全球評級(S&P Global)首席經濟學家保羅?希爾德(Paul Sheard)表示，美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)“釋放了動物精神”。特朗普還承諾通過減稅手段爲美國提供“一飛沖天的燃料”，讓業已不錯的增長率衝得更高，而美聯儲(Fed)下一任主席傑伊?鮑威爾(Jay Powell)也極不可能很快撤下“賓治盆”（punch bowl，一種裝賓治酒的器皿，常常出現在狂歡派對上——譯者注）。

However, the reality behind the up-beat new mood in the global economy is more complicated. Central bankers have certainly played a large part by continuing to find ways over the past decade to stimulate their economies against the headwinds of the global financial crisis.

然而，在瀰漫於全球經濟中的這種新的樂觀情緒背後，現實狀況是更爲複雜的。各國央行行長們當然出了很大力，他們在過去十年中不斷地設法刺激經濟，以抵擋全球金融危機的逆風。

The European Central Bank, in particular, is now fairly certain that its efforts to print money, buy assets and keep interest rates in negative territory is persuading people to borrow and spend, and companies to invest. European unemployment is following the downward trajectory of that in the US and Japan, albeit around five years behind.

尤其是歐洲央行(ECB)，現在基本可以肯定，該行印鈔、購買資產以及維持負利率的努力，說服了人們去借貸和消費，也說服了企業去投資。歐洲失業率正在跟隨美國和日本的下滑軌跡，儘管落後5年左右。

Even Mario Draghi, ECB president, is sounding more upbeat. “The economic ex--pansion in the euro area continues to be solid and broad-based?.?.?.?[and] the latest data and survey results point to un-abated growth momentum in the second half of this year,” he said, presenting the central bank’s latest monetary policy decision in October.

就連歐洲央行行長馬里奧?德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的語氣都樂觀了起來。今年10月，在公佈歐洲央行最新的貨幣政策決定時，他說：“歐元區經濟繼續堅實而全面地擴張……（而且）最新數據和調查結果顯示今年下半年增長勢頭不減。”

A similar story can be told in Japan, while China’s monetary authorities have ensured its economy continues to expand at a rapid, but controlled pace.

日本也是類似情況，同時中國貨幣當局通過努力也實現了經濟繼續快速平穩增長。

Most governments, too, have eased their austerity programmes, giving more breathing space now that public finances have improved significantly in advanced economies.

鑑於發達經濟體的公共財政有了顯著改善，大多數國家也放鬆了財政緊縮項目，這帶來了更多的喘息空間。

Yet the main reason for improved sentiment is that the yearly cycle of over-optimistic forecasts in advanced and emerging economies, which had dogged the global economy since 2010, has been broken.

然而，情緒改善的主要原因是，自2010年以來一直困擾全球經濟的如下規律被打破：對發達和新興經濟體的年度預測總是過於樂觀。

The absence of significant downgrades to forecasts has been refreshing.

預測數字沒有重大下調實在令人暢快。

Never keen to let complacency creep in, economists have a habit of pouring cold water on optimism and those at the UK’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research are no exception. In their quarterly assessment of the global economy, published in early November, they concede that “recent months have been characterised by an unusually fav-ourable combination of global economic and financial dev-elopments”. Yet they warn that companies and households should not let the good news go to their heads. “Global growth this year and next seems likely to be as good as it gets,” they warn.

從不願掉以輕心的經濟學家們習慣於給樂觀看法澆冷水，英國國家經濟社會研究院(National Institute of Economic and Social Research)的那些經濟學家也不例外。他們在今年11月初發表的全球經濟季度評估中承認，“近月來，全球經濟與金融動向都出乎意料地可喜”。 但他們警告說，企業和家庭不應該被這個好消息衝昏頭腦。他們告誡道：“全球增長看上去可能會在今明兩年見頂。”

There are concerns that asset markets in general have become so highly valued that a fall is likely soon. Any faltering in markets could exacerbate problems linked to $135tn of global debts, the IMF cautioned in October. “While the waters seem calm, vulnerabilities are building under the surface [and] if leFT unattended, these could derail the global recovery,” said Tobias Adrian, of the IMF’s financial stability watchdog.

有人擔心，整個資產市場的估值已經嚴重虛高，可能很快就會出現價格下跌。今年10月，IMF警告稱，市場出現的任何動盪，都可能加劇與135萬億美元全球債務相關的問題。IMF負責金融穩定事務的部門負責人托比亞斯?阿德里安(Tobias Adrian)表示：“儘管水面看上去很平靜，但問題正在水面之下醞釀，（而）如果坐視不管，這些問題可能會毀掉全球復甦。”

In the US, too, the duration of the up-swing has reached a post-second world war record and experience suggests the risks of a recession increase materially with the length of the previous cycle.

在美國，經濟上行趨勢持續的時間也已創下二戰後的紀錄，經驗表明，發生衰退的風險隨着之前那個週期的長度增加而大大提高。

Much of the growth has represented a recovery from the global financial and economic crisis of 2007-09, but it has become clear that the und-erlying performance of the global economy will be weaker in future than before the crisis.

很大一部分增長是彌補了經濟在2007年至2009年的全球金融和經濟危機中的損失，但眼下已經很清楚的是，全球經濟未來的基礎表現將達不到危機之前的水平。

Among large economies, apart from in India, estimates of the potential for economic progress have been scaled back alongside evidence that productivity growth — the ability of economies to improve their efficiency in turning labour, land and capital into output — has slowed across the world.

除印度外的各大型經濟體下調了對經濟增長潛力的估測，同時有證據表明，全球生產率增長（經濟體提高把勞動力、土地和資本轉化爲產出的效率的能力）放緩。

Politics is also rearing its ugly head as a threat to global economic progress. While Mr Trump’s “America First” language has not yet materialised as a significant slide towards protectionism, the risks of global trade wars are higher than ever with tensions in the negotiations over the North American Free Trade Agreement, Brexit talks under severe strain, and the US withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact. World trade growth has been lacklustre and has not convincingly broken out of its low growth phase since the global financial crisis.

政治方面的不詳動向也開始對全球經濟增長構成威脅。儘管特朗普的“美國優先”(America First)論調尚未落實爲朝着保護主義方向的嚴重倒退，但眼下全球貿易戰的風險高於以往任何時候，此外，圍繞北美自由貿易協定(NAFTA)的談判氣氛緊張，英國退歐談判無比艱難，美國還退出了《跨太平洋夥伴關係協議》(TPP)。全球貿易增長一直乏力，而且一直無法理直氣壯地宣告已經走出全球金融危機以來的低增長階段。

There is also little sign that many countries are using the opportunities of the recovery to reform their economies instead of simply enjoying the up-swing. They have yet to heed Ms Lagarde’s call for countries to engage in “cutting red tape, increasing spending on research and development, and investing in infrastructure”.

此外，目前幾乎沒有跡象表明，很多國家在利用這次復甦的機會改革其經濟、而不是僅僅在享受增長行情。它們尚未聽從拉加德的勸告，採取行動“減少行政上的繁文縟節、擴大研發支出並投資基礎設施”。

The test of the global economy will be in the longevity and strength of the current buoyant period. Although forecasts have not yet been revised much higher, the clouds have lifted for the time being. Mostly, countries are simply happy to enjoy a period of stability and greater optimism after a dismal decade. That is fine for 2017, but soon the hard work in prolonging the recovery and protecting the world against a future downturn must begin in earnest.

對全球經濟的考驗將在於目前這輪經濟繁榮期的長度和強度。儘管經濟預測上調的幅度還不高，但目前陰雲已消散。基本上，各國在度過慘淡的10年後，正開心地享受一段穩定和更加樂觀的時期。2017年先享受一下沒關係，但要讓這輪復甦持續更久、要防止世界經濟未來陷入一場低迷，我們很快就必須真正開始啃硬骨頭了。