和記電訊出售固網業務是好買賣嗎

The market for mobile telecoms promises growth but teems with competition. So infrastructure investors are increasingly pegging their hopes on the greater stability of “wired” broadband businesses. An example: I Squared Capital has agreed to buy HGC, the fixed-line subsidiary of Li Ka-shing’s Hutchison Telecom, for HK$14.5bn ($1.9bn). Shares in Hong Kong-listed Hutchison jumped 6.8 per cent to two-year highs.

移動通訊市場增長潛力巨大，但競爭激烈。因此，基礎電訊設施投資者越來越多地寄希望於更穩定的“有線”寬帶業務。一個例子是：I Squared Capital已同意以145億港元（合19億美元）的價格，收購李嘉誠(Li Ka-shing)旗下和記電訊香港(Hutchison Telecommunications HK)的固網電訊業務子公司——和記環球電訊(HGC)。香港上市的和記電訊股價上漲6.8%，至兩年高點。

Online TV offerings have helped demand for broadband connections delivered through fixed lines. The International Telecommunications Union estimates the number of fixed broadband customers grew 11 per cent to 884m in the year to 2016. The Asia-Pacific region is half the total, and grew faster.

在線電視節目提升了對通過固網提供的寬帶連接的需求。國際電信聯盟(ITU)估計，2016年，固網寬帶用戶數量增長11%，至8.84億。亞太地區佔總數的一半，且增長更快。

The fixed-line business is less competitive than mobile and comes with higher margins. This reflects subscribers’ inertia and a slower upgrade cycle. The difficulty of providing “last-mile” infrastructure provides a barrier to entry, too.

固網業務比移動業務競爭更少，利潤率更高。這反映了用戶的慣性和較慢的升級週期。提供“最後一英里”基礎設施的困難也是進入這一領域的障礙。

Hutchison’s revenues shrunk 45 per cent last year, due to lower demand for new smartphones. The group has said that it wants to use the transaction proceeds to strengthen its market position in the mobile business. At a sale price of 36 times trailing earnings, there will be cash to support that. In October, Wharf Telecom sold its fixed-line business to a consortium including TPG at roughly 30 times prior year earnings. NetLink, the recently floated group that manages Singapore’s fibre network, trades at 39 times earnings but faces less domestic competition.

由於對新智能手機的需求下降，去年和記電訊的營收萎縮了45%。該集團表示，希望利用這筆交易所得的款項來加強其在移動通訊領域的市場地位。以36倍歷史市盈率的估值出售，和記電訊將擁有現金來支持這種舉措。去年10月，九倉電訊(Wharf Telecom)被出售給包括TPG資本(TPG Capital)在內的一家財團，售價約爲上一年盈利的30倍。近期上市的NetLink的市盈率爲39倍，但它面臨的國內競爭較少。該集團負責運營新加坡的光纖網絡。

Such high valuations might tempt other operators to monetise their broadband assets in order to throw more cash at winning market share in mobile. They should be careful. Hutchison will at least have a choice of fixed-line providers from which it can rent capacity once it has sold HGC. This is not the case in all jurisdictions. It may sometimes be more prudent to remain a monopolist than become a customer of one.

如此高的估值可能誘使其他運營商將旗下寬帶資產貨幣化，以拿出更多現金爭奪移動通訊領域的市場份額。他們應該慎重。出售了和記環球電訊，和記電訊至少可以選擇租用哪家固網供應商的設施。但並非在所有司法管轄區都是如此。有時候，保持壟斷者地位可能比成爲壟斷者的用戶更爲穩妥。