美國人擔心二次衰退
Some economists are worried that the United States is poised for another recession. They warn that a so-called "double-dip," if it comes, could be more painful for average Americans than the 2007-2008 recession. Jobs, incomes, output and industrial production are all weaker now than they were then. One sector that has been hit especially hard is housing.
一些經濟學家擔心，美國可能陷入另一次經濟衰退。他們警告說，假如所謂的“雙重下滑”真的到來，那將比2007-2008年的經濟衰退更使普通美國人感到痛苦。就業、收入、產出和工業生產現在跟當年相比都更加薄弱。受到打擊最嚴重的是住宅領域。
Mark Hudson is a real estate agent in Washington, D.C., one of the areas that has been least affected by the housing and construction bust. He peruses the day’s list of homes for sale.
馬克·哈德遜是華盛頓特區的房地產經紀人。華盛頓是全美國受住宅建設泡沫破裂影響最小的地區之一。他正在仔細審閱這一天的待售住宅列表。
“We are down about 40 percent from June 2005 to June 2011 in home sales. That affects every potential area of the economy everywhere and we are, frankly, being close to Washington, in better shape then a lot of the areas of the country," he said.
哈德遜：“我們的住宅銷售從2005年6月至2011年6月下降了大約40%。這影響到經濟的各個層面，坦率地說，我們由於靠近華盛頓，跟全國很多地區相比，情況要好得多。”
One of the homes Hudson is currently trying to sell is in a historic district in a suburb of Washington.
哈德遜目前正試圖出售的住宅之一，座落於華盛頓郊區一個歷史悠久的地區。
He says he’ll sell the house for much less than he would have several years ago. And that reduced housing prices have a real impact on peoples’ personal wealth.
他說，這幢房子賣價比前幾年低得多。而且，房價降低直接影響到人們的個人財富。
“If they had sold it a few years ago they would have cleared 'X,' now they are going to clear $100,000 to $150,000 less. That is money they could use in retirement or for buying a new house or for putting their kids in college, so it absolutely affects their personal wealth,” Hudson said.
哈德遜說：“如果他們幾年前把它賣了，他們會得到這麼多錢；可是現在他們得少拿10萬到15萬美元。這筆錢他們本可以用來作退休金或購買新房子，或給他們的孩子交大學學費，所以他們的個人財富絕對受到影響。”
Robust home sales and construction can help drive an economic recovery. But economist Karen Dynan says that probably won’t happen this time around.
興旺的住宅建設和銷售有助於推動經濟復甦。但經濟學家卡倫·迪南說，這回看來是沒有指望了。“The real issue now is that demand is so weak because people don’t want to buy homes when their income prospects are so weak. When they are worried that house prices are going to fall further and until we can see that demand rise again we are not going to see home-building rise in a way that is contributing to economic growth,” Dynan said.
迪南：“現在真正的問題是，市場的需求是如此之弱，因爲當人們的收入前景如此暗淡的時候，他們是不會買房的，他們擔心房價會進一步下跌。直到需求再次上升，我們不可能看到住宅建設成爲推動經濟增長的動力。”
Many economists say that fear of the unknown is feeding consumers’ hesitancy. That fear has rocked global financial markets, following a downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt and a long-running and highly fractious political debate over raising the nation’s debt ceiling.
許多經濟學家說，前途未卜使消費者猶豫不決。這種擔心已經震動了全球金融市場，尤其是在美國的國債評級被降低後，以及曠日持久的關於國家債務上限的政治辯論僵持不下。
“Pessimism can be self-fulfilling. If a consumer wakes up one day and is worried about the future and doesn’t go out and spend, then retailers are going to see weak demand and they are not going to hire as much and income will weaken and that in turn will leader consumers to have even less inclination to spend,” Dynan said.
迪南：“悲觀主義經常是怕什麼來什麼。如果消費者早晨醒來，由於擔心未來而不去消費，那麼零售商們將看到需求疲軟，他們就不會招聘新人，收入也會減少；而這種情況反過來又會導致消費者更不願意消費。”
Hudson says that with his personal income down by more than 50 percent, he’s certainly spending less. And he’s worried about what’s to come.
馬克·哈德遜說，他自己的收入就下降了50%以上，所以他減少了消費。他更擔心今後的日子怎麼過。
“If there’s a recession, I don’t know what I would do because I have cut as much as I could, I believe. I guess I could do more but it would be difficult. I have cut as much as I can at this point, so it’s kind of a scary question,” Hudson said.
哈德遜：“如果經濟再次衰退，我真不知道我會怎麼辦，因爲我已經儘可能減少開支了。我想我可以多做些事，但恐怕很難。在開支上我已經盡力而爲了。這真是個可怕的問題。”
