特朗普稱美國經濟面臨大衰退 遭經濟學家駁斥

Some economists are pushing back against Donald Trump's comments that the U.S. is headed toward a "massive recession," calling the New York real estate developer's assertions "unfounded" and flat-out wrong.

近日，美國一些經濟學家對特朗普發表的美國經濟正處於"大規模衰退"邊緣的言論進行了批判。他們表示，這個紐約的房地產開發商的言論是"毫無根據的"，是"完全錯誤的"。

Trump told The Washington Post over the weekend that the U.S. is headed for a "very massive recession," and he said the nation's unemployment situation is much worse than reported.

特朗普上週末告訴華盛頓郵報記者，美國正在走向一個 "大規模的衰退"時期，並稱美國實際的失業情況比報道的要糟糕得多。

"First of all, we're not at 5 percent unemployment. We're at a number that's probably into the twenties if you look at the real number," he said. "That was a number that was devised, statistically devised to make politicians — and, in particular, presidents — look good."

"首先，美國的失業率不是5%。如果你想知道真實的數字，恐怕在百分之二十幾，"他說。"官方統計是經過人爲操縱的，爲的是那些政客，尤其是總統臉上有光。"

In La Crosse, Wisconsin, Trump doubled-down on his recession call, telling supporters that "bubbles aren't pretty. We've had bubbles, and when they burst, it's not a good thing. And what I said is we're going to go into a massive recession, but I also say if I'm president that's not going to happen. Because I'm gonna straighten things out before it happens."

在威斯康星州的拉克羅斯，特朗普再一次提到了經濟衰退。當天他告訴支持者說："泡沫並不美好，我們正坐在泡沫上，而當它們爆破時就大大的不妙了。而我說的是，我們將進入一個大規模的衰退時期。但我也要說，如果我當選爲總統，這絕不會發生。因爲在它發生前，我會處理得很好。"

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Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York, told Reuters, "We're not heading for a recession, massive or minor, and the unemployment rate is not 20 percent."

美國裕信全球研究公司首席經濟分析師哈姆·班德霍爾茨說:"我們不會走向經濟衰退。無論嚴重與否，失業率也不是他口中的20%。"

Boston College economics professor Robert Murphy agrees. "Donald Trump's comments that the U.S. economy is heading toward a deep recession in which the unemployment rate will reach 20 percent is completely unfounded," he told ABC News.

波士頓大學經濟學教授羅伯特·墨菲對此表示贊同。他告訴ABC新聞："特朗普認爲美國經濟正在走向嚴重的衰退時期，並且失業率將達到20％，是完全沒有根據的。"

AFL-CIO chief economist William E. Spriggs also disputed Trump's numbers.

美國勞聯產聯首席經濟學家威廉·斯普里格斯也駁斥了特朗普所說的數字。

"Though GDP growth is slowed, job growth has continued at a pace to close the job gap near January," he told ABC News. "The broadest measure of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and those who are part-time who wish full-time, is now in single digits. So, a claim of 20 percent unemployment is not true. It is that high for some groups, like black teenagers, but not for whole populations."

"雖然GDP增速放緩，但就業卻穩步增長，縮小了與二月份前後的就業差距，"他告訴ABC新聞。"度量失業率最廣泛的量度可以看那些曾希望尋求全職工作的兼職工作者的指數，這個數字目前已是個位數。因此，失業率高達20%的說法是錯誤的。對於某些羣體，比如說黑人青少年羣體，確實有那麼高的失業率，但對於整個美國來說並非如此。"