緬甸神祕的礦藏攪動全球錫市場
Mysterious mines in Myanmar have become important to the world tin market in a sign of how the country’s opening-up is revealing resources obscured during decades of military dictatorship and internal conflict.
緬甸神祕的礦藏對全球錫市場變得重要起來，這一跡象表明，這個國家的開放正將數十年軍事獨裁和國內衝突期間不爲外界所知的豐富資源展現在世界面前。
The Southeast Asian state has caused a stir in metal-rich countries from Peru to Indonesia thanks to its opencast mines in the Wa region near the Chinese border that has been ruled by an armed ethnic party for more than 25 years.
得益於佤邦地區的露天礦藏，這個東南亞國家已在金屬資源豐富的國家（從祕魯到印度尼西亞）中攪動起波瀾。佤邦靠近中國邊境，已被一個擁有武裝的少數民族政黨統治了25年以上。
The region is controlled by the United Wa State party, which has an armed wing and has long had close political and economic ties with China.
佤邦由佤邦聯合黨(United Wa State party)控制，該黨擁有一支武裝力量，長期以來一直與中國保持着密切的政治經濟聯繫。
Myanmar’s re-emergence as a big producer of the metal after a break of more than six decades has been branded by one tin market analysis as a black swan event.
緬甸時隔60多年後重新崛起成爲錫生產大國，這被一份錫市場分析報告歸爲一起黑天鵝事件。
Over the past four years, Myanmar’s return has depressed the tin markets, but this year prices have risen as traders anticipate the supply could peak.
過去四年裏，緬甸的迴歸壓低了錫市場價格，但隨着交易商預期供應可能見頂，今年價格已經上漲。
Myanmar’s production of initially astonishingly high grade ore has surged more than 10-fold in four years in Wa, according to the International Tin Research Institute.
國際錫研究協會(International Tin Research Institute)數據顯示，過去四年，緬甸最初奇高品味的錫礦石在佤邦的產量增長到原來的10倍以上。
The country now satisfies about a third of China’s demand for the metal and 10 per cent of global supply.
緬甸現在約滿足了中國三分之一的錫需求，以及全球10%的供應。
In the first half of the year exports of tin to China surged by more than 80 per cent.
今年上半年緬甸對中國錫出口大幅增長80%以上。
The metal is an ingredient of the solder widely used by the electronics industry.
錫是焊料成分之一，在電子工業中使用廣泛。
Tin is unlikely to be the last resource surprise as this mineral-rich country presses on with reforms that began when the military dictatorship stepped down in 2011 after almost half a century of isolationist rule.
錫可能不會是緬甸在資源方面帶給世界的最後一個意外。這個礦藏豐富的國家正在力推改革，這一改革始於2011年緬甸軍事獨裁政府下臺後，該政府對緬甸實施了近半個世紀的孤立主義統治。
The future of billions of dollars of commodity wealth, some of it in conflict zones, will also be a critical part of peace talks due to be launched this week by Aung San Suu Kyi’s fledgling civilian-led government.
昂山素季(Aung San Suu Kyi)的新文官政府定於本週啓動和平談判，數十億美元大宗商品財富——部分位於衝突地區——的未來也將是和平談判的關鍵部分。
Win Htein, an Aung San Suu Kyi confidant, said of the mines at Man Maw in the Wa region: Even for us, it’s still a mystery.
昂山素季的親信溫登(Win Htein)表示，佤邦曼莫(Man Maw)的礦藏即使對於我們來說也仍然是個迷。
They are quiet and very wise — and they keep their movements low-key.
它們安靜而睿智，而且它們保持了行事低調。
The tin story is just one example of how Myanmar’s international reintegration is uncovering resources that one long-time observer of the country says were previously not known at all — or not known except to a select few.
緬甸重返國際社會正將此前完全無人知曉或僅爲特定的少數人所知（如一位長期觀察緬甸事態的人士所說）的礦藏資源展現在世人面前。錫的故事只是例子之一。
Uncontrolled exploitation by both Myanmar’s regional armed groups and the former ruling military of jade and other assets has driven war, environmental destruction and large-scale tax evasion.
緬甸各地方武裝組織、前執政的軍方對玉石及其他資源的無節制開採，帶來了戰爭、環境破壞及大規模逃漏稅。
The future of natural boons ranging from tin to timber will loom large at the peace conference starting on August 31 in Naypyidaw, the capital, which is billed as a first step towards ending Myanmar’s more than 60 years of on-off internal conflict.
這些自然饋贈——從錫到木材——的未來，將成爲8月31日起在首都內比都召開的和平大會上的重要議題。此次大會被宣傳爲終結緬甸60多年斷斷續續內部衝突的第一步。
If the wealth of the country is going to be equitably distributed, it’s necessary these resource revenues are captured, said Richard Horsey, a Yangon-based analyst. They are a large part of the reason why armed groups are sustainable.
如果這個國家的財富要得到公平分配，首先必須要得到這些資源收入，駐仰光的分析人士理查德•霍西(Richard Horsey)說，它們是武裝組織得以維持的很大一部分原因。
There are now signs that tin production could be peaking.
現在有跡象表明，緬甸的錫產量可能正在達到峯值。
That twist could cut revenues for the Wa militia and further boost the rally in the world tin price that has seen it notch an 18-month-high of $18,770 a tonne.
這一轉變可能將減少佤邦民兵的收入，並進一步提振全球錫價反彈，每噸18770美元的價格已是18個月以來的最高點。
A peak in Myanmar’s production could help push the global tin market into a deficit in a few years, as production has also declined in other producing countries such as Peru and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
緬甸錫產量見頂可能幫助推動全球錫市場在未來幾年出現短缺，因爲祕魯、剛果民主共和國等其他生產國的產量也出現了下滑。
In Indonesia, a rule banning the export of unprocessed materials has also hurt exports.
在印度尼西亞，禁止出口未加工原材料的規定也限制了錫出口。
Robin Bhar, an analyst at Société Générale, said he expects the market to move into a deficit of 5,000 tonnes next year.
法國興業銀行(Société Générale)分析師羅賓•巴爾(Robin Bhar)表示，他預計明年全球錫市場的缺口爲5000噸。
That could leave China short of supply, he said.
他說，這或將導致中國出現供應短缺。
Myanmar production is likely to level off because the mainly open pit mining in Wa has now moved underground, where the tin content of the ore is lower, the ITRI said.
國際錫研究協會表示，緬甸錫產量很可能趨向穩定，因爲佤邦以露天開採爲主的採礦活動現在已經進入地下開採階段，而地下礦石的錫含量較低。
But Cui Lin, an ITRI analyst who has visited the mines, warned that it was unclear how much tin there was, as large parts of the area remained unexplored.
曾參觀過這些礦山的該協會分析師崔琳提醒說，目前還不清楚錫儲量有多少，因爲該地區大部分仍未得到勘探。
