指數提供商 A股再遇MSCI明晟時刻
It was a year ago that index provider MSCI contemplated including Chinese domestic-listed A shares in its emerging market indices. The Chinese market was charging ahead, with the Shanghai Composite index peaking on June 12, two days after MSCI opted not to include the shares.
一年前，指數提供商MSCI明晟考慮把中國內地上市的A股納入其新興市場股指。那時中國股市漲勢如虹，上證綜指(Shanghai Composite index)在6月12日、即明晟決定暫不納入A股的兩天後見頂。
Officials in Beijing sat on the sidelines encouraging the rise, much of it based on borrowed money, while the local media took the euphoria as further confirmation of the ascent of China itself.
北京的官員們在場邊鼓勵股市上漲（此輪漲勢有很大一部分是依靠借來的錢哄擡起來的），同時中國媒體把股民的樂觀情緒解讀爲中國處於上升勢頭的進一步證明。
The mood would quickly shift. After last summer’s crash when more than half of all A shares were suspended at one point — and big listed brokerages spent money supporting the market at the request of regulators — the market sits 40 per cent below its peak of last June.
結果市場情緒很快轉變。去年夏天中國股市發生崩盤，一度有超過半數的A股停牌，同時大型上市券商應監管部門的請求砸重金進場救市。目前股指水平仍比去年6月的高點低40%。
Buying with borrowed money is of course like building a house on sand: it is inherently unstable. Meanwhile, official buying to cushion the plunge in the market means that a larger part of the shareholder register is made up of the ever heavier hand of the state, through the China Securities Finance Corporation that lent money for the price support operation.
當然，用借來的錢購買就像在沙灘上建房子：它在本質上是不穩定的。與此同時，官方大舉買入以遏止市場暴跌意味着，更多股東由越來越重的國家之手構成——通過爲救市行動出借資金的中國證券金融股份有限公司（China Securities Finance Corp，簡稱：證金公司）。
The “A share market is walking in the long shadow of the rescue campaign toward normalisation”, Credit Suisse notes in a recent report.
“A股市場正在救市行動的長長陰影下走向正常化，”瑞信(Credit Suisse)在最近的一份報告中指出。
Now as the Shanghai market sits 15 per cent lower for 2016, the question over whether MSCI will include A shares has returned, with a decision expected on June 14.
現在，在上海股市進入2016年以來累計下跌15%的情況下，MSCI明晟會不會納入A股的問題又回來了。預計該機構將在6月14日作出決定。
The subdued nature of the debate this year reflects how much has changed. The centre of gravity has swung in favour of pessimists, partly because of the way authorities in Beijing responded to the plunge in the stock market and pressure on the renminbi. Sentiment continues to deteriorate, despite some recent tinkering with the market rules.
今年辯論的低調特性反映出情況發生了多大的變化。重心已轉向贊成悲觀主義者的方向，部分原因在於中國官方迴應股市暴跌的方式，以及人民幣所受的壓力。市場情緒繼續惡化，儘管最近當局出臺了一些調整市場規則的措施。
Last year, MSCI’s decision took place against a backdrop of lobbying pressures. On the one hand, large international investment houses such as BlackRock that had laughably small quotas ($1.5bn in BlackRock’s case) were pushing against inclusion. On the other, those that were exposed to China — in part, precisely because they anticipated that inclusion would lead to a wave of buying — were strong advocates.
去年，MSCI明晟是在遊說壓力之下做出決定的。一方面，貝萊德(BlackRock)等額度小得可笑的大型國際投資機構（貝萊德只有15億美元）反對納入A股。另一方面，那些已經擁有中國敞口（部分是因爲他們預期A股被納入新興市場指數會導致一波買盤）的機構強烈提倡納入A股。
Credit Suisse puts the chance of rejection at 60 per cent; Morgan Stanley is telling clients the likelihood is 50 per cent, while Goldman is the most bullish with a 70 per cent likelihood of inclusion.
瑞信估計今年不納入的機率爲60%；摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)告訴客戶，這個機率是50%，而高盛(Goldman)最樂觀，稱納入A股的機率高達70%。
Credit Suisse’s view did not stop it coming up with five stock picks that could be beneficiaries in the case of inclusion. Most of them offer exposures to sectors not available in Hong Kong, such as Kweichow Moutai, the maker of that strong alcoholic brew.
瑞信的觀點並沒有阻止它挑出五隻有望受益於A股被納入指數的個股。這些個股大多提供在香港股市不能獲得的行業敞口，如烈性酒釀造商貴州茅臺(Kweichow Moutai)。
Even if MSCI does open up its indices, the move will not necessarily lead to a wave of forced buying by those who benchmark against these indices. Indeed, international brokerages estimate the buying will add up to no more than $16.5bn, or a mere 0.2 per cent of total market capitalisation of the A shares.
即使MSCI明晟真的開放其指數，此舉也未必導致以這些指數爲基準的投資機構掀起一波被迫買盤。事實上，國際券商估計，A股被納入指數所導致的買盤加起來不會超過165億美元，相當於A股總市值的區區0.2%。
Another development next month could be the extension of the Stock Connect scheme — a mechanism introduced in 2014 that gives all international investors access to A shares. It is currently limited to Shanghai and Hong Kong but may be extended to Shenzhen. That too, though, is likely to prove incremental.
下月的另一項發展可能是滬港通機制的擴展——2014年開通的滬港通讓所有境外投資者能夠買賣A股。該機制目前僅限於上海和香港，但可能擴展到深港通。不過，此舉也很可能只產生增量效果。
Today, few strategists would make the argument that share prices in China are a great buying opportunity. There are big question marks over huge stretches of the economy, led by banks whose problem loan figures are questionable and unlikely to improve even if the central bank lowers interest rates.
目前幾乎沒有策略師主張中國的股價水平意味着買入良機。中國經濟多個行業的頭上懸掛着巨大的問號，尤其是銀行業，其不良貸款數據是有問題的，而且即使央行降低利率也不太可能好轉。
The structural reform that could cut capacity dramatically and bring real profitability to state-owned enterprises seems to have been postponed. A weak currency also limits the attraction of the market to any foreign investors.
有可能大幅削減產能、並給國有企業帶來真正盈利能力的結構性改革似乎已被推遲。人民幣疲弱也限制了中國股市對境外投資者的吸引力。
In the past, the economy and the market seemed disconnected. Now they are moving together — with both emitting signals of gloom, if not outright distress. Whatever MSCI decides won’t change that.
過去，中國的經濟和市場似乎是脫節的。現在它們向一個方向移動——兩者都發出黯淡（如果還算不上困境的話）信號。無論MSCI明晟怎麼決定，都不會改變這個局面。
