巴黎氣候協議面臨特朗普威脅
Donald Trump is sowing doubt over the Paris climate change pact as his hostility towards the deal and the growing swagger of his campaign focus attention on how he could undermine it as president.
唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)正對巴黎氣候變化協議播下懷疑的種子，他對該協議的敵意以及他在總統競選中日益的招搖，讓外界關注於他一旦當選將會如何破壞該協議。
The Republican candidate last week vowed to “cancel” the painstakingly negotiated agreement, a threat experts said was unrealistic. But his comments put a spotlight on its slow ratification and weak spots in President Barack Obama’s climate legacy.
這位共和黨總統候選人上週發誓將“廢除”這項經過艱難談判達成的協議。專家們表示，這番狠話不切實際。但他的言論讓外界關注到協議批准過程的緩慢，關注到美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)的氣候變化遺產存在薄弱之處。
While Mr Trump could not single-handedly scrap the agreement — which Washington and Beijing had rallied more than 190 countries to join — he could withdraw the US, the second largest greenhouse gas emitter after China, or block the action needed to cut emissions to the levels promised by Mr Obama.
特朗普不可能憑一己之力廢除該協議（美中兩國已召集190多個國家加入該協議），但他可能會讓美國（僅次於中國的全球第二大溫室氣體排放國）退出該協議，抑或他可能否決將碳排放量降至奧巴馬許諾的水平所需的措施。
The Paris accord, hailed as a turning point in more than 20 years of effort to combat climate change, requires countries to set out plans to help keep global warming “well below 2C” from pre-industrial times. The Obama administration has vowed to cut US greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 per cent from 2005 levels by 2025.
巴黎氣候變化協議被稱讚爲人類對抗氣候變化20多年來的一個轉折點，該協議要求各國制定計劃，幫助將全球氣溫較工業時代以前水平的漲幅控制在“遠低於2攝氏度”。奧巴馬政府發誓，到2025年時把美國溫室氣體排放水平降至比2005年的水平低26%至28%。
But if Mr Trump used the presidency to cast doubt on the need for climate action, he could weaken the resolve of other leaders sceptical about the deal.
然而，如果特朗普當選，並利用他的總統任期讓外界對採取行動遏制氣候變化的必要性產生懷疑，那麼他可能會削弱對該協議存疑的其他領導人的決心。
Attacks on the Paris agreement could occur at three different levels under a Trump presidency.
如果特朗普當選，巴黎氣候變化協議可能會在三個不同層面受到攻擊。
Withdrawal from the pact
退出協議
No single country can “cancel” the deal because it would require each of the nearly 200 nations that negotiated it to agree to abandon it. Once the agreement is in force it is also impossible for a country to withdraw overnight.
沒有哪一個國家能夠獨自“廢除”該協議，因爲它需要近200個談判國全都同意廢除。一旦協議生效，一個國家突然退出協議的情況也是不可能出現的。
“Even if Donald Trump becomes president he cannot pull the US out of the Paris accord quickly because there is a four-year withdrawal period written into the agreement,” said Michael Jacobs, a UN climate negotiations expert at the Institute for Public Policy Research, a UK think-tank.
英國智庫公共政策研究所(Institute for Public Policy Research)的聯合國(UN)氣候談判專家邁克爾•雅各布斯(Michael Jacobs)表示：“即便唐納德•特朗普成爲總統，他也無法讓美國迅速退出巴黎協議，因爲該協議規定了四年的退出期。”
“That’s not a coincidence,” he added, noting the timing matched the length of a US presidential term.
他指出這個期限跟美國一任總統任期一樣長，並稱“這並非巧合”。
However, the agreement is not yet in force and it is not likely to be by the time a new president is sworn in next January — a possibility that could leave Mr Trump with an easier get-out if he wins.
然而，該協議尚未生效，而且也不太可能在明年1月美國新總統上臺前生效，假如特朗普勝出，他有可能讓美國更容易地退出協議。
The Paris accord cannot take effect until it is formally ratified or joined by 55 countries accounting for 55 per cent of global emissions. So far, only 17 countries representing 0.04 per cent of emissions have ratified it.
巴黎氣候協議要得到55個國家（總共佔全球溫室氣體排放的55%）的正式批准或加入才能生效。迄今爲止，只有17個國家批准了該協議，這些國家總共佔全球溫室氣體排放量的0.04%。
China and the US have said they plan to join this year but they account for only about 40 per cent of emissions. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, the agreement may not start until 2018.
中國和美國表示，它們計劃今年加入，但它們只佔全球溫室氣體排放量的40%左右。即便根據最樂觀的假設，該協議也不可能在2018年之前生效。
The US courts
美國法院
The fate of US climate policies is not solely in the hands of the president. The centrepiece of Mr Obama’s Paris pledges — an initiative to cut carbon emissions from the power sector — is hanging in the balance as its legality is weighed by the courts.
美國氣候政策的命運不單單掌握在總統手裏。奧巴馬在巴黎氣候大會上的核心承諾——削減電力部門碳排放的動議——前途未卜，因爲其合法性由法院斟酌。
Because Mr Obama was unable to curb emissions via legislation in Congress, he has resorted to using regulations, which are vulnerable to lawsuits from states and energy companies that dislike them.
由於奧巴馬無法通過推動國會立法來遏制碳排放，他只能依賴出臺監管規定；如果對規定不滿的各州和能源公司提起訴訟，這些監管規定敗訴的風險很高。
In February a District of Columbia appeals court dealt the president a blow by ruling that the administration could no longer enforce compliance deadlines for the power plant initiative.
今年2月，哥倫比亞特區一上訴法院裁定，奧巴馬政府不能再對火電廠動議設置最後期限，這對奧巴馬造成打擊。
The appeals court judges will hear oral arguments over the so-called Clean Power Plan on September 27.
這家上訴法院的法官們將在9月27日就所謂的“清潔電力計劃”(Clean Power Plan)聽取口頭理由陳述。
But the case’s significance is likely to push it to the Supreme Court, which means a final ruling on the plan will not come until the next president is in office. He or she could also end up filling the top court’s current vacant seat.
但該案的重要性可能會讓它打到最高法院(Supreme Court)那裏，這意味着對該計劃的最終裁決要到下任總統就職後纔會做出。決定由誰來填補最高法院當前大法官空缺的，最終可能也是這位新總統。
If Mr Trump were in charge he could intervene by asking the court for a “voluntary remand”, sending it back to regulators who he could tell to render it toothless, said a veteran Washington environmental lawyer.
華盛頓一位資深環保律師表示，如果特朗普上臺，他可能進行干預，要求最高法院將此案“自願發回”到監管者那裏，他可以讓那些監管者把此案變得沒有殺傷力。
More radically, the president could get it thrown out by telling judges the government had done a 180-degree turn and now agreed with its opponents. “That rarely happens even with a change of administration, but it’s not unprecedented,” said the lawyer.
更激進的做法是，特朗普可以告訴法官，政府的立場出現了180度大轉彎，變得跟對方一致了，從而讓此案作廢。這位律師表示：“雖然這種情況很少發生（即便是在政府更迭的時候），但並非沒有先例。”
Executive (in)action
採取行政舉措阻礙協議執行
Even if the courts upheld Mr Obama’s plan to cut emissions from power plants, a President Trump could choose to disrupt it.
即便法院支持奧巴馬削減火電廠排放的計劃，如果特朗普當選，他也可以選擇攪黃該計劃。
With a co-operative Congress he could cut funding for the Environmental Protection Agency, the regulator in charge, or promote legislation to slow the initiative’s implementation.
在國會的合作下，他可以削減撥給國家環境保護局(Environmental Protection Agency)的資金，或者推動立法放緩實施該動議。
Or “he could signal to the states that their plans for meeting the Clean Power Plan goals would not be reviewed rigorously”, said Rhea Suh, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group.
自然資源保護協會(Natural Resources Defense Council)會長Rhea Suh表示，或者“他可能會暗示各州，他們爲滿足‘清潔電力計劃’目標而制定的計劃將不會受到嚴格審覈”。
The power plant initiative is vital because it tackles the US’s biggest single source of greenhouse gases, accounting for 40 per cent of the total. But Mr Trump could also delay moves to stop methane leaks, curb vehicle emissions and promote energy efficiency.
這個電廠動議非常關鍵，因爲它應對的是美國最大的溫室氣體來源，佔到其總排放量的40%。但特朗普也可以拖延那些旨在阻止甲烷泄露、遏制汽車尾氣排放以及提升能源效率的舉措。
“Some of those things would be challenged in court, but . . . even if they were in some legal limbo he would effectively really halt our progress,” said Ms Suh. “The actual slowing down of things may in fact be a reversal in itself.”
Rhea Suh表示：“那些舉措當中有一些將會在法院遭受挑戰，但……即便它們處於法律上的放任自流狀態，他實際上也會讓我們無法取得進展。進展緩慢本身可能事實上就是倒退。”
Christiana Figueres, the UN’s top climate official, said the next president would need to examine the US’s economic interests and argued that shifting to a low-carbon system made sense for the economy and society.
聯合國氣候變化事務高級官員克里斯蒂娜•菲格雷斯(Christiana Figueres)表示，下任總統將有必要審視美國的經濟利益，她還提出，轉向低碳體系對美國經濟和社會來說是明智的。
“The world is moving in that direction and if the US wants to remain competitive it needs to focus its vast technical capacities to stay current, if not ahead of the curve,” she said.
菲格雷斯表示：“世界正轉向那個方向，如果美國希望保持競爭力，它就需要努力使用自己強大的技術能力與這股潮流保持同步，乃至走到潮流前頭。”
