爲免與A股競爭 韓國欲晉級MSCI發達市場

An impending decision on whether or not China’s $6.1tn onshore equity markets should start to be included in the flagship emerging market index is starting to reverberate around the region.

MSCI明晟即將決定是否應開始把中國規模達6.1萬億美元的A股市場納入其旗艦新興市場指數。這件事已開始在整個地區產生反響。

South Korea and Taiwan are stepping up their efforts to be promoted from the MSCI EM index to its developed world equivalent. And in the case of Seoul, at least, the fear of an exodus of foreign capital in the wake of China’s admittance appears to be a driving factor.

韓國和臺灣正加緊努力，爭取從MSCI新興市場指數(MSCI EM index)晉級到其發達市場指數。至少就韓國而言，這麼做的一項可能原因是，擔心A股被納入MSCI新興市場指數後外國資本會撤出韓國。

At present China, through the Hong Kong market and the American depositary receipts of US-listed companies such as Alibaba, accounts for 24 per cent of the MSCI EM index, with South Korea and Taiwan the next largest constituents, at 16 per cent and 12 per cent respectively.

目前，中國股票（指在香港上市的中國公司股票以及阿里巴巴(Alibaba)等在美上市中國公司的美國存託憑證）在MSCI新興市場指數中權重爲24%，韓國和臺灣緊隨其後，分別爲16%和12%。

However, if China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen-based A-shares market was included, China’s weight, based on current market capitalisations, would jump to about 40 per cent, pushing South Korea and Taiwan down to 12.9 per cent and 9.7 per cent respectively.

但如果上海和深圳的A股市場被納入到該指數中，基於當前的市值，中國的權重將飆升至40%左右，韓國和臺灣的權重將分別降至12.9%和9.7%。

Given that the index is currently tracked by $1.5tn of assets, according to MSCI, if investors did not increase their EM allocation in the wake of China’s inclusion, this could lead to outflows of $46bn from the Seoul market and $35bn from Taiwan.

據MSCI稱，目前有1.5萬億美元資產追蹤該指數，如果投資者不在A股被納入後增配新興市場，將導致460億美元資金流出韓國股市、350億美元流出臺灣股市。

This would not happen overnight. MSCI is due to rule on whether or not to start adding China’s A-shares to its EM index next month. Even if the answer is positive, as many observers predict, there will be a 12-month delay and even then Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks will only be drip-fed into the index, starting with just 5 per cent of their full weight.

情況不會一夜之間就變成這樣。MSCI定於下月就是否開始將A股納入其新興市場指數做出決定。即便如很多觀察人士預言的那樣決定納入，也要等到12個月後纔會納入，而且屆時只會一點一點地納入，一開始納入的將僅爲A股全部體量的5%。

Nevertheless, the seemingly inevitable entry of the juggernaut of China’s onshore markets into the index is already making others nervous.

儘管如此，A股這個龐然大物被納入該指數似乎是不可避免。這一前景已令其他人感到擔憂。

The Korea Times reported last month that the Korean government “believes joining the [developed market] World Index will avoid competition with China in the same group”.

上月《韓國時報》(Korea Times)報道稱，韓國政府“認爲加入世界指數（MSCI追蹤發達市場的指數）可避免與中國同組競爭”。

South Korea is already ranked as a developed country by FTSE and S&P, two rival index providers but, as Arthur Kwong, head of Asia Pacific equities at BNP Paribas Investment Partners, points out, “the focus is always on MSCI. That is the market that can move liquidity.”

韓國已被另兩家指數供應商富時(FTSE)和標準普爾(S&P)列爲發達國家，但正如法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)亞太股市主管鄺樂天(Arthur Kwong)所言：“焦點永遠是MSCI。這是一個能驅動流動性的市場。”