時事新聞:美國股市及原油價格跟隨中國股市走低
【英文原文】
Stocks, OIL FOLLOW CHINA'S DROP
U.S. investors shied from risk on the final trading day of the month, unloading stocks and commodities following a big stock-market selloff in China.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 47.92 points, or 0.5%, to 9496.28, marking a second straight decline. Alcoa, Caterpillar and Boeing fell more than 3%. United Technologies declined 0.5%. Walt Disney slid 3% after it said it would acquire Marvel Entertainment for about $4 billion. Marvel soared 25%.
Despite those losses, stocks finished August ahead of where they started. For the month, the Dow industrials gained 3.5%, the average's best performance for August since 2000.
The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 19.71 points, or 1%, to 2009.06. The S&P 500 sank 8.30 points, or 0.8%, to 1020.63. All its sectors fell, led by a decline of 1.9% in its energy sector.
The declines were sparked by an overnight drop in China's benchmark stock index, the Shanghai Composite, which fell 6.7% to 2667.75, its lowest finish since May. It has given back nearly a quarter of its value since it peaked Aug 4.
Typically, China's markets take their cue from trading in the U.S., according to a note earlier this month from analysts at J.P. Morgan. But Monday marked the second Monday in three weeks that a sharp drop in Shanghai was followed by a decline in New York.
'The market seems to be keying off the Shanghai Composite lately even though it didn't pay a lot of attention to it during the run up,' said Kevin Kruszenski, director of equity trading for KeyBanc Capital Markets. 'It shows people are looking for any reason to sell this market on a belief it's come too far, too fast.'
The latest round of China jitters comes at a time when many traders think that speculation had pushed oil's price ahead of what might be justified by supply and demand. Hopes in China's ability to provide new demand for oil to run factories, an expanding fleet of personal cars, and other machinery are fading.
'The energy markets have probably become the leading market for pricing in [an economic] recovery in China,' said energy analyst John Kilduff, of MF Global. 'Now it looks like we're likely to consolidate for awhile.'
Crude-oil futures slid $2.78 to settle at $69.96 a barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude still gained 0.7% in August.
Monday's sock pullback struck at a time when many investors in the U.S. were already primed to sell following a blistering summer run, with many traders now looking for a traditional 10% correction to shake the speculative excesses out of the market.
In particular, September has historically been a difficult month for the market, with the Dow averaging a 1.1% decline for the month dating back to 1900. That's the only month for which it has a negative performance over that timeframe, according to Ned Davis Research.
More broadly, the fall is known as a fraught time for traders because the U.S. crashes of 1929 and 1987 both happened in October. Last year's historic meltdown began in mid-September and led to an initial round of bear-market lows in October before a brief rally that eventually gave way to an even deeper pullback.
While no one is expecting a repeat of such calamity this year, many traders are on the defensive.
'I doubt if we get a big selloff before the end of the week,' when key jobs data are due, said Bob Bright, partner at the proprietary trading firm Bright Trading in Chicago. 'But beyond that, who knows? Most of my traders are just waiting for when everyone gets back from vacation after Labor Day to see what happens.'
While Mr. Bright said a correction is clearly possible in September, he's even more worried about weakness in the following month, after many funds and companies have closed out their fiscal years. As a result he's been selling bullish October call options on stocks he owns even more aggressively than September contracts.
Jason Trennert, managing partner at Strategas Research Partners in New York, said the consensus on Wall Street is that a market correction from the summer's highs is 'inevitable.' However, Mr. Trennert said that a few factors may help September 2009 buck the usual reputation of the ninth month as a rough patch for stocks.
He said many fund managers who sat out the summer rally may be apt to chase the S&P's year-to-date gains and that a continued deluge of stimulus spending may bolster key economic data and corporate profits. According to Strategas, less than 20% of the $787 billion stimulus package passed in February has been spent, with between $3 billion and $4 billion in new money being spent every week.
The dollar weakened against the euro and yen, which rose after a historic electoral victory by the upstart Democratic Party of Japan. Treasury prices were higher.
【中文譯文】
在中國股市出現暴跌之後，美國投資者紛紛在8月份最後一個交易日規避風險，拋出股票和大宗商品。
道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數下跌47.92點，收於9496.28點，跌幅0.5%，爲連續第二個交易日下跌。美國鋁業(Alcoa)、卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)和波音(Boeing)下跌超過3%。聯合技術(United Technologies)跌0.5%。華特-迪士尼(Walt Disney)下跌3%，此前該公司表示將以大約40億美元收購Marvel Entertainment。後者大漲25%。
儘管如此，美國股市8月份仍實現了上漲。當月道瓊斯指數的漲幅爲3.5%，是2000年以來表現最好的一個8月份。
納斯達克綜合指數下跌19.71點，收於2009.06點，跌幅1%。標準普爾500指數下跌8.30點，至1020.63點，跌幅0.8%。所有類股全線下跌，能源類股領跌，下跌了1.9%。
美國股市的下跌是由週一中國股市暴跌引發的，基準上證綜合指數重挫6.7%，至2667.75點，爲5月份以來的最低收盤點位。自8月4日見頂後，該指數已下跌了近四分之一。
根據JP摩根分析師上月早些時候的研究報告，中國股市通常會看美國股市的臉色行事。但本週一是三週來第二次中國股市週一大幅下跌帶動隨後的紐約股市下跌。
KeyBanc Capital Markets股票交易主管克魯申斯基(Kevin Kruszenski)說，儘管在上證綜合指數上漲期間人們沒給予過多關注，但最近它引起了人們的高度重視。這表明投資者正在尋找任何理由進行拋售，原因就是他們認爲股市上漲的過高、過快了。
與此同時，許多交易員認爲，投機活動已經將油價推高到了脫離供需基本面的水平。對中國辦廠、私家車增加和其他機械領域能夠帶來新增石油需求的希望正在消失。
MF Global能源分析師基爾達夫(John Kilduff)說，能源市場可能已成爲反映中國經濟復甦狀況的先行市場。現在看來我們可能會整固一段時間。
紐約商交所原油期貨結算價跌2.78美元，報每桶69.96美元。8月份原油仍上漲了0.7%。
週一股市的下滑正值許多美國投資者經過了熾手可熱的夏季行情之後已經準備賣出，許多交易員現在都預期會出現傳統的10%的修正，擺脫市場中的投機過度行爲。
尤其是，9月在歷史上一直都是股市的困難時期，從1900年算起，道指9月平均下滑1.1%。 市場分析和基金管理公司Ned Davis Research的數據顯示，9月是這一時限中唯一一個出現下滑的月份。
從更大範圍來說，秋季對交易員來說是危險時間，因爲美國1929和1987年股市崩潰都是在10月發生的。去年的歷史性崩盤自9月中旬始，10月進入熊市初期，隨後短暫反彈，最終又讓位於更嚴重的下挫。
雖然沒人預期今年會出現這樣的災難性情形，但許多交易員還是採取了守勢。
芝加哥專營機構Bright Trading的合夥人布萊特(Bob Bright)說，我懷疑本週結束前會不會出現大規模賣盤，關鍵的就業數據屆時將發佈。但在那之後的情形誰知道呢？我手下的大多數交易員都等着看大家勞動節（9月第一個星期一）假期回來後會出現什麼情況。
布萊特認爲9月份顯然很有可能出現盤整，但他更擔心的是10月份出現疲軟，因許多基金和公司屆時都將結束財年。因此，他一直在賣出所持的10月看漲期權，力度比9月合約還要大。
研究公司Strategas Research Partners的執行合夥人崔內特(Jason Trennert)說，華爾街人士一致認爲，市場從夏季高點修正是不可避免的。不過，崔內特說，有一些因素可能幫助今年9月擺脫通常認爲9月對股市不利的名聲。
他說，許多在夏季反彈期間按兵不動的基金經理可能會追逐標普指數今年迄今的漲幅，同時經濟刺激開支繼續源源不斷，可能提振關鍵經濟數據和公司利潤。Strategas的數據顯示，今年2月通過的7,870億美元刺激計劃已經投放的不足20%，每週將有30億-40億美元的新資金投放。
美元兌歐元和日圓下跌。日本民主黨在選舉中取得歷史性勝利，帶動日圓走強。美國國債價格上揚。
