週五中國季度數據的五大看點 Chinese growth: 5 things to watch
China will report first-quarter growth in gross domestic product and other keenly watched economic data on Friday morning. Here are five points to watch.
週五早上，中國將報告一季度國內生產總值(GDP)增長數據及其他受到密切關注的數據。對於這些數據，以下五點值得關注。
1) Headline GDP growth. China’s economy grew 6.8 per cent in the fourth quarter last year and 6.9 per cent for the full year. Beijing has set a target of 6.5 to 7.0 per cent for 2016, the first time it has targeted a broad range rather than a single figure. If growth falls near the low end of that range — let alone below it — the government will face pressure to increase monetary and fiscal stimulus.
1) 倍受關注的GDP增速。去年第四季度中國經濟增速爲6.8%，全年增速爲6.9%。中國政府爲2016年設定的增長目標是6.5%到7%，這是中國政府首次把GDP增長目標定在一個區間而不是單個數字。如果增長速度落在該區間的低端（更不用說低於該區間了），中國政府將面臨加大貨幣和財政刺激力度的壓力。
2) Services. China’s traditional growth drivers of manufacturing and construction have nosedived amid a real estate slump, falling commodity prices and overcapacity. Services helped counteract the slowdown in the industrial sector last year, but there are doubts about whether rapid services growth can continue.
2) 服務業。由於房地產的下滑、大宗商品價格下跌以及產能過剩，製造業和建築這兩大中國傳統的增長推動因素已大幅下滑。去年，服務業幫助抵消了工業部門的放緩，不過依然有人懷疑服務業的快速增長是否能夠持續。
Financial services will be a particular focus. Early 2015 was the height of China’s stock market boom, so the base of comparison is high, suggesting that year-on-year growth for financial services is likely to fall sharply. The question is whether growth in other services, such as healthcare, education, travel and entertainment can take up the slack.
金融服務將尤其受到關注。2015年初是中國股市泡沫的最高峯時期，這導致比較的基準過高，也意味着金融服務業同比增長率可能會急劇下滑。問題在於，醫療保健、教育、旅遊和娛樂等其他服務業能否把閒置的資源利用起來。
3) GDP deflator. Many analysts suspect that China’s statistics bureau tinkers with the politically sensitive real GDP growth figure to ensure it meets the government target. The main tool for such tinkering is thought to be the GDP deflator, the broad measure of price changes used to convert between nominal and inflation-adjusted growth.
3) GDP平減指數(GDP deflator)。許多分析師懷疑，中國的統計局會對政治上十分敏感的GDP增長數據加以改動，以確保該數據達到政府提出的目標。這種改動的主要工具被認爲是GDP平減指數，該指數是衡量價格變化的大範圍指標，用以實現名義GDP增長率和經通脹調整後的增長率之前的轉換。
When the GDP deflator diverges sharply from more familiar measures of inflation, such as the consumer and producer price indices, suspicion of manipulation rises. The deflator was -0.73 per cent in the fourth quarter, the lowest since 2009. Both CPI and PPI ticked up in the first quarter, so if the deflator sinks further or even remains flat, it will be viewed as a sign of tinkering.
一旦GDP平減指數與人們更熟悉的通脹衡量指標（比如消費者價格指數(CPI)和生產者價格指數(PPI)）出現巨大分歧，就會出現政府操縱數據的懷疑。去年第四季度，中國GDP平減指數爲負的0.73%，是自2009年以來的最低數值。今年第一季度CPI和PPI都曾上升，因此如果GDP平減指數進一步下滑甚至保持不變，都會被視爲修改數據的證據。
4) Real estate. A property slump from 2014 through late last year was a major contributor to China’s overall economic slowdown, as a construction slowdown hit demand for commodities, such as steel, cement and copper. More recently, the property market has shown signs of a tentative recovery, with growth in prices, sales and investment all back in positive territory. Supportive policies — notably a cut in minimum mortgage downpayment rates — has fuelled the rebound.
4) 房地產。始於2014年、延續到去年底的一輪房地產下滑，是中國總體經濟放緩的主要拖累因素，原因是建築業放緩打擊了對鋼鐵、水泥和銅等大宗商品的需求。更近一段時間內，房地產市場顯示了暫時性復甦的跡象，房價、銷售和投資增速都重返正區間。支持性政策——尤其是下調最低首付比例的政策——助長了這輪反彈。
The breakdown of GDP growth by the sector will show how much construction and real estate-linked services contributed to overall growth. Separate monthly data on real estate investment and sales will indicate whether momentum in the property market continued in March — a bullish sign for the rest of the year.
該產業對GDP增速的拖累，將顯示出建築和與房地產有關的服務業對GDP總體增長有多大的貢獻。另行發佈的有關房地產投資和銷售的月度數據，將顯示出房地產市場的增長勢頭在3月份是否持續下去，這將是今年剩餘時期看多的一個證據。
5) Consumption. Along with services, consumption has been a growth-sustaining bright spot amid the sharp slowdown in investment over the past two years. Consumption contributed 66 per cent to overall GDP growth last year compared with 36 per cent for investment and -3 per cent for net exports. But growth of both disposable income and retail sales has moderated this year. If the growth contribution from consumption dips below 50 per cent, doubts will rise about whether economic rebalancing in China is possible without an even sharper slowdown in investment.
5) 消費。除了服務業以外，過去兩年投資急劇放緩的同時，消費一直是維持增長的亮點。去年，中國GDP總體增長中有66%來自消費，相比之下投資的比例爲36%，淨出口則拖累了3%。不過，今年可支配收入和社會消費品零售總額的增幅都已經降低。如果源自消費的增長貢獻比例跌至50%以下，人們將會懷疑中國是否可能在投資不進一步放緩的前提下實現經濟再平衡。
