分析師稱中國鋼價回升後勁不足
A rise in Chinese steel prices has been read by some local mills as a sign of budding recovery fed by the country’s seemingly stabilising economy.
中國鋼鐵價格上漲，這被國內一些鋼廠解讀爲中國似乎正在企穩的經濟促使鋼鐵行業出現復甦苗頭的跡象。
However, some analysts believe the fall in domestic demand will ultimately haul back prices as prospects of significant new investment in China’s main steel-intensive industries remains poor.
然而，一些分析師認爲，國內需求下降最終將拉低價格，因爲中國各大鋼鐵密集型行業出現大規模新投資的前景依然渺茫。
Whether its steelmakers can stage an orderly recovery is critical for a global market buffeted last year by 20 per cent year-on-year growth in cheap Chinese exports. Negative margins meant losses for steelmakers worldwide, including Tata Steel, whose decision to pull out of its British operations has put the future of UK steel production into question.
對去年因中國廉價鋼鐵出口同比增長20%而遭受重創的全球市場而言，中國鋼鐵製造商能否實現有序復甦至關重要。負利潤率意味着世界各地的鋼鐵製造商虧損，包括塔塔鋼鐵(Tata Steel)，其關閉英國工廠的決定令人質疑英國鋼鐵生產的未來。
Chinese mills began restocking last month as a seasonal pick-up in demand combined with surging real estate prices in top tier cities to send a wave of positive sentiment through the industry.
中國鋼廠上月開始擴充庫存。季節性需求上升，再加上一線城市房價飆升，向鋼鐵行業傳遞了一波積極情緒。
The average price for steel products across the country pushed above Rmb2,700 per tonne last week — a price last reached more than a year ago, before the rout, according to My–, a price tracking website. The price has recovered from below Rmb1,800 per tonne late last year, according to the website.
價格追蹤網站“我的鋼鐵網”()的數據顯示，中國鋼材均價上週漲至每噸2700元人民幣以上，上次達到這個價位還是一年多前，當時鋼價還沒有開始暴跌。根據該網站的數據，鋼價是從去年年末不到每噸1800元人民幣的低點漲上來的。
But the recovery is unlikely to last, according to Tomas Gutierrez at Kallanish Commodities, speaking at the recent Steel Home conference in Shanghai.
但Kallanish Commodities的托馬斯•古鐵雷斯(Tomas Gutierrez)在鋼之家(Steelhome)最近在上海舉辦的會議上表示，此輪復甦不太可能持續。
“Restricting supply to traders and keeping low inventories has helped push prices up but this doesn’t stop overall demand from falling,” he said.
他說：“限制對貿易商的供應並保持低庫存有助於推升價格，但這不會阻止整體需求下降。”
Government stimulus of the housing market has fuelled increased investment by some developers but mostly this goes into refurbishment in first tier cities, which uses little steel.
政府出臺的住房市場刺激措施引發一些開發商增加投資，但這種投資大多投向一線城市的翻新工程，很少用到鋼鐵。
If Chinese macro figures due this week are positive, the monetary easing that has fuelled the home prices recovery may slow, according to Shao Chen, an analyst at Macquarie. Without new significant investment in housebuilding, the likelihood of a long-term recovery in Chinese steel prices is low, he said.
麥格理(Macquarie)分析師邵辰表示，如果中國本週發佈的宏觀數據是積極的，那麼助推房價回升的貨幣寬鬆政策就會放緩。他說，如果沒有住房建設的大規模投資，中國鋼鐵價格長期回升的可能性很低。
Of other sectors that might take up some of the slack, only infrastructure and the vehicle industry are predicted to see significant growth in investment in 2016 — and the latter still uses large amounts of imported steel.
在其他一些可能填補需求缺口的行業中，人們預計只有基礎設施和汽車業將在2016年大規模增加投資，而後者仍使用大量的進口鋼材。
Falling Chinese steel demand helped global prices slide last year as mills in China cut prices and increased exports to try to rid themselves of nearly 200m tonnes of product unneeded at home.
中國鋼鐵需求下降促使去年全球價格下跌，因爲中國鋼廠降價並增加出口以試圖脫手國內不需要的近2億噸鋼材。
