中國官員對增長前景表示樂觀
As finance officials from G20 countries began to descend on the city to discuss the state of the global economy — much of which is in thrall to the slowdown in growth in China — a senior central bank official yesterday sounded a note of reassurance. “For the foreseeable future our demand will remain fairly strong,” said Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China. “We will continue to increase imports of crude oil by maybe 7 or 10 per cent a year and for other commodities we will have very strong demand.”
在20國集團(G20)的財政官員陸續抵達上海討論全球經濟狀況之際（目前全球經濟有很大一部分受制於中國增長放緩），中國央行一位高官昨日發表安撫人心的言論。“在可預見的未來，中國的需求仍會維持保持較爲強勁的狀態，”中國人民銀行(PBoC)副行長易綱表示。“中國將繼續增加原油進口，例如以7%-10%的年均增速。中國對其他大宗商品的需求也會維持強勁。”
But stock markets were painting a different picture. The Shanghai Composite ended 6.41 per cent lower at 2,741.2 while the tech-focused Shenzhen Composite dropped 7.34 per cent to 1,738.67.
但是，股市描繪了一幅不同的畫面。上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)收跌6.41%，至2741.2點，而科技股集中的深證綜指(Shenzhen Composite)收跌7.34%，至1738.67點。
Both are down more than 20 per cent this year, dented by fears of slowing economic expansion and rising debt levels in a country that has been the engine of global growth for much of the past decade. Consequent currency weakness and capital flight have fed back and compounded these fears.
滬深股指今年以來雙雙下跌逾20%，拖累股市的主要因素是，投資者擔心在過去10年大部分時間裏構成全球增長引擎的中國經濟擴張放緩，負債上升。隨之而來的人民幣弱勢和資本外流形成反饋，加劇了前述擔憂。
Seeking to allay these concerns, China’s central bank said that the renminbi would remain “relatively stable” though there would be more volatility in the exchange rate against the dollar.
爲消除這些擔憂，中國央行表示，人民幣匯率將保持“相對穩定”，儘管兌美元匯率會有更多波動。
“Fluctuation with the US dollar will be a little bit more than before whereas renminbi [value] relative to a basket of currencies will be relatively stable,” Mr Yi said.
易綱表示，人民幣兌美元匯率的波動會比之前多一點，而人民幣的幣值對一籃子貨幣會相對穩定。
The PBoC has been criticised in recent months for failing to communicate its policy intentions clearly after a “one-off” devaluation of the renminbi in August and later saying that the market should assess the currency’s stability against a basket of 13 currencies rather than the dollar alone.
中國央行在最近幾個月受到批評，稱其未能清楚傳達自己的政策意圖。去年8月，中國央行讓人民幣“一次性”貶值，隨後表示市場應當參照一籃子13種貨幣（而不僅僅是美元）來評估人民幣的穩定性。
“We are not pegging to a basket strictly,” added Mr Yi, who is a leading candidate to succeed Zhou Xiaochuan as head of the PBoC.
“我們不會嚴格對於籃子貨幣掛鉤，”易綱補充道。他是接替周小川出任中國央行行長的領先候選人。
“We can still determine interest rates. We take the basket as a reference but not exactly [a] peg . . . to maintain relative stability of the renminbi.”
他表示，中國仍“有能力決定國內自身的利率水平”，並將一籃子貨幣作爲一個參照而不是盯住，藉此保持人民幣匯率的相對穩定。
With the exception of Mr Zhou’s appearance at a G20 meeting in Ankara in September, senior PBoC officials have been largely invisible on the international stage. When they have spoken, it has been almost exclusively through state-controlled media outlets such asCaixin, a leading Chinese financial magazine with which Mr Zhou had a recent interview.
除了去年9月周小川在安卡拉G20會議上露面外，中國央行高層近幾個月在國際舞臺上基本不見蹤影。當他們表態時，他們幾乎完全通過國家控制的媒體機構，如最近採訪周小川的中國領先財經雜誌《財新週刊》。
Weeks after renewed turmoil on China’s equity and currency markets shocked global investors in early January, Beijing sent an influential policy adviser to the World Economic Forum in Davos to argue that reforms to rebalance the country’s traditionally investment-led economy remained on track.
在1月初中國股市和匯市再起風波、震驚全球投資者的幾周後，北京方面派出一個有影響力的政策顧問出席達沃斯世界經濟論壇(WEF)，他提出，爲了轉型中國的傳統投資拉動型經濟而推行的改革仍然走在正軌上。
Mr Zhou is scheduled to speak in Shanghai this morning, where he will be questioned on how the Chinese government can keep the renminbi relatively stable without heavily depleting its foreign exchange reserves. China’s forex stockpile fell by more than an aggregate $200bn in December and January as the PBoC sought to cushion the renminbi’s fall against the dollar. However, at $3.3tn it remains far higher than those of international peers.
周小川定於今日上午在上海發言，他將面對這樣一個問題：中國政府如何能夠在不大量消耗外匯儲備的情況下保持人民幣相對穩定？隨着中國央行試圖遏制人民幣相對於美元過度下跌，中國外匯儲備在12月和1月共計減少逾2000億美元。然而，目前爲3.3萬億美元的外匯儲備仍遠高於其它國家。
“Capital outflows are increasing but it is not all due to bad reasons,” said Qu Hongbin, China chief economist at HSBC. “By our estimates 60 per cent of outflows over the past 18 months came from Chinese corporates paying down their dollar debt at a time when Chinese borrowing costs are lower and the US is hiking rates.”
“資本外流正在增加，但並非全都是由於不好的原因，”匯豐(HSBC)中國首席經濟學家屈宏斌表示。“據我們估計，過去18個月流出的資金中，有60%源自中國企業償還美元債務，目前美國在加息，中國的借款成本較低。”
Zhu Guangyao, vice-finance minister, yesterday acknowledged market concerns about policy transparency in China. “Transparency is important for people to understand what we are doing,” he said. “We understand that as [the world’s] second-largest economy our policies spill over to others.”
中國副財長朱光耀昨日承認市場對中國的政策透明度存在擔憂。“透明度對於人們瞭解我們在做什麼很重要，”他說。“我們明白，作爲全球第二大經濟體，我們的政策會有溢出效應。”
However, Beijing officials also made clear that culpability lay elsewhere too, citing concerns from higher interest rates in the US to negative ones in Japan.
然而，中國官員們也明確表示，其它國家也有過錯，他們提到了種種關切，從美國加息到日本實行負利率。
“We also understand that US policy spills over to China [and] we want to strengthen policy co-ordination,” Mr Zhu said. “That is why the G20 this time is more important.”
“我們也明白，美國的政策對中國具有溢出效應，我們希望加強政策協調，”朱光耀表示。“這就是爲什麼此次G20會議格外重要。”
