亞洲家庭債務飆升的風險
Soaring household debt in Asia is one of the starkest legacies of the post-2008 low rates world order. If 10 years ago US households stood out as some of the most leveraged in the world, today, Asia is home to the highest household debt globally.
亞洲家庭債務水平飆升是2008年後全球普遍的低利率帶來的一個極爲嚴酷的後果。如果說10年前美國家庭的槓桿明顯居於全球最高之列的話，那麼如今全球家庭負債最重的就是亞洲。
But some Asian countries, even those with household debt equal to over 80 per cent of GDP, are faring better than others.
但是，在亞洲，一些國家的境況比另一些要好得多——即便前者中有些國家的家庭債務相當於其國內生產總值(GDP)的80%以上。
Countries where debt has grown gradually and where regulators implemented pre-emptive macro prudential policies are more likely to minimise blows to economic growth.
那些債務是逐漸累積起來的、並且監管機構先行實施了防範性宏觀審慎政策的國家，更可能將經濟增長面臨的衝擊降到最低。
Those with reactive regulatory bodies and where household debt surged in just a few years are more at risk, according to analysts and economists. Malaysia and Thailand are at the top of this list.
分析師和經濟學家認爲，那些監管機構被動應對、並且家庭債務在短短數年間激增的國家風險更高。馬來西亞和泰國的風險位居榜首。
Domestic credit growth and swelling household debt have kept many Asian economies humming, even in the face of weak external demand from the west aFTer 2008. Asian banks are, to a large extent, capitalised enough to bear the brunt of high household debt. But if other economic sectors start faltering, these obligations could start eroding GDP growth.
國內信貸增長以及迅速膨脹的家庭債務使得很多亞洲經濟體保持繁榮，即便是在2008年之後來自西方的外部需求疲軟的情況下。在很大程度上，亞洲銀行業的資本也比較充足，背得起高昂家庭債務的沉重負擔。但是，如果其他經濟部門出現問題，這些債務可能會開始侵蝕GDP增長。
“Household debt is a growth problem, not a financial system problem,” argues Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC in Hong Kong.
“家庭債務問題與增長有關，而不是金融體系的問題，”匯豐銀行(HSBC)駐香港的亞洲區經濟研究聯席主管範力民(Frederic Neumann)認爲。
If debt becomes unsustainable and households deleverage, consumer spending will choke, consumer confidence will wane and positive momentum will slow — a perfect recipe to squeeze economic growth.
如果債務變得不可持續、家庭開始去槓桿，消費者支出將受到抑制、消費者信心將萎縮、積極勢頭將放緩——這種情況通常而言都會擠壓經濟增長。
Asian property markets — which have been on household debt steroids since 2008 — could be the first to burst. In November 2015, housing transaction volumes in Hong Kong — the world’s least affordable housing market — were the lowest on record.
最先破裂的可能是亞洲房地產市場泡沫。自2008年以來，家庭債務一直推動着亞洲房地產市場迅速膨脹。2015年11月，在全球最難以負擔的住房市場香港，住房交易降至歷史低點。
“Prices have not dropped because people are not forced to sell yet. But what if interest rates increase more than expected? What if we get another taper tantrum? Hong Kong property prices will just drop,” warns Mr Neumann.
“因爲人們還沒有被迫出售，所以價格尚未出現下滑。但是如果加息力度超出預期會怎樣？如果再次出現‘削減恐慌’(taper tantrum)會怎樣？香港房地產價格就只能下跌了，”範力民稱。
Now that slumping commodity prices and weakening Chinese demand are softening export markets, Asian countries would not be able to fall back on the external sector if their domestic economies underperform.
由於大宗商品價格下滑以及中國需求疲軟正在削弱出口市場，如果亞洲國家的國內經濟表現欠佳，它們將無法依靠出口部門。
Malaysia’s and Thailand’s household debt to GDP ratios almost doubled between 2008 and 2014 to nearly 90 per cent. Thailand’s tax breaks on vehicle and housing purchases and Malaysia’s favourable credit conditions and strong consumer demand accelerated the increase.
2008年至2014年，馬來西亞和泰國的家庭債務與GDP之比幾乎增加了一倍，達到將近90%的水平。泰國在購買汽車和住房上的稅收優惠政策、以及馬來西亞優惠的信貸條件和強勁的消費者需求，都加速了家庭債務增長。
Worryingly, these levels resemble household debt in the US on the eve of the subprime crisis, when it peaked at 100 per cent of GDP in 2006 and 2007. The main difference is that Malaysia’s and Thailand’s nominal GDP in 2014 was around a 40th of the US’s in 2006.
令人擔憂的是，這兩個國家眼下的家庭債務與GDP之比與次貸危機前夕的美國差不多（美國的家庭債務與GDP之比在2006年和2007年達到了100%的峯值）。主要區別在於，2014年馬來西亞和泰國的名義GDP約爲美國2006年名義GDP的四十分之一。
Nevertheless, household debt to personal disposable income in Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan is either higher than or as high as it was in the US in 2007, according to Deloitte.
不過，德勤(Deloitte)表示，馬來西亞、泰國、新加坡、韓國和中國臺灣的家庭債務與個人可支配收入之比都不低於美國2007年時的水平。
Lending to households is slowing in Malaysia and Thailand thanks to regulatory reforms targeting personal unsecured loans and low-income households. But the fact that household debt to income ratios remain high in spite of these reforms is telling. Malaysian and Thai regulators were reactive at best and too late at worst.
由於改革了針對個人無擔保貸款和低收入家庭的監管政策，馬來西亞和泰國的家庭貸款增速正在放緩。但是，儘管實施了這些改革，但是家庭貸款與收入之比仍然居高不下，這很能說明問題。馬來西亞和泰國的監管機構至多可以算被動做出了應對，甚至可以說他們應對得太遲了。
More developed Asian economies are also grappling with high household debt. Data in 2014 ranged from 65 per cent (Hong Kong) to 83 per cent of GDP (Taiwan). But unlike Malaysia and Thailand, this debt has grown gradually and regulators implemented household debt policies very early on.
亞洲一些發達經濟體也在努力應對家庭債務高企的問題。2014年的數據顯示，亞洲大部分發達經濟體家庭債務與GDP之比在65%（香港）到83%（臺灣）之間。但是不同於馬來西亞和泰國，這些國家的債務是逐步累積的，而且監管機構很早就出臺了針對家庭債務的政策。
South Korea is a clear example.
韓國就是明顯的例子。
“Household debt in Korea has been high for some time now,” says Marie Diron, senior vice-president for credit policy at Moody’s. “What would make it unsustainable now? Interest rates are low, unemployment is low and debt affordability is high. I don’t think banks will face repayment difficulties.”
“韓國的家庭債務水平偏高已經有一段時間了，”穆迪(Moody’s)負責信貸政策的高級副總裁瑪麗迪龍(Marie Diron)稱，“眼下什麼會使它變得不可持續？利率較低，失業率較低，債務可負擔性較高。我不認爲銀行業會面臨償付問題。”
Even pre-2008, South Korean regulators pioneered the use of loan to value ratios, debt to income ratios, and geographic lending restrictions: real estate in areas with soaring property prices required higher down payments. Hong Kong also introduced loan to value ratios and, together with Singapore, raised the stamp duty to cool property prices down.
早在2008年前，韓國監管機構就率先啓用了貸款與價值比率(loan-to-value ratio)、貸款與收入比率(debt-to-income ratio)以及地域性貸款限制的措施（在房地產價格飆升的區域要求更高的首付比例）。香港也引入了貸款與價值比率，香港和新加坡還提高了印花稅來給房地產降溫。
In Taiwan, where Taipei home prices grew to about 15 times income in 2014, the central bank capped the loan-to-value ratio on new housing loans taken out by borrowers with two or more outstanding mortgages at 50 per cent.
在臺灣，2014年臺北市的房價收入比上漲至15倍。針對有兩份及兩份以上未償抵押貸款的借款人，臺灣央行規定新購置房產的貸款與價值比率不得超過50%。
Across the Strait, mainland China’s household debt has also accelerated — it has doubled since 2008 — but still only accounts for 36 per cent of GDP (as of 2014). Ballooning local government and corporate debt are more pressing matters for Chinese regulators.
位於海峽對岸的中國大陸的家庭債務也在加速增長（自2008年以來增長了一倍），但是與GPD之比仍然僅爲36%（以2014年的數據計算）。對於中國的監管機構而言，迅速膨脹的地方政府債務和公司債務纔是更爲緊迫的問題。
Surging household debt has not set off a crisis since most Asian economies can fall back on sturdy banking sectors. Since the 1997 financial crisis, Asian banks have been less reliant on foreign capital and are ahead of the game in terms of tier one capital and profits. More than half world banking profits are now generated in Asia, and Chinese banks have the highest tier one capital in the world, according to The Banker, an FT publication.
由於亞洲多數經濟體有穩固的銀行業可依靠，家庭債務飆升並未引發危機。自從1997年金融危機以來，亞洲銀行業減輕了對外國資本的依賴，在一級資本充足率和利潤方面處於領先水平。英國《金融時報》旗下刊物《銀行家》(The Banker)稱，如今全球銀行業利潤逾半數來自亞洲，中國銀行業擁有全世界最高的一級資本充足率。
Fitch Ratings joins economists in saying that even in Malaysia and Thailand, where household debt has grown the quickest, commercial banks have healthy customer bases, strong capital ratios and asset quality buffers to sustain these liabilities.
惠譽評級(Fitch Ratings)的看法與經濟學家們的看法一致，認爲即使是在家庭債務水平增長最快的馬來西亞和泰國，商業銀行也擁有健康的客戶羣基礎、強大的資本充足率和良好的資產質量作爲緩衝，足以維持這些負債。
But there are still risks. Household leverage is likely to remain high in the short to medium term since consumer loan demand is set to be below GDP growth in both economies, argues Fitch. This has already increased delinquencies among Thai banks.
但是，眼下仍然存在風險。惠譽認爲，由於馬來西亞和泰國的消費貸款需求預計將高於GDP增速，家庭槓桿在中短期時間內可能仍將居高不下。在泰國的銀行中，這種情況已經開始導致拖欠還款的情況增加。
Asian lenders also need to manage greater risks. Western banks began lending aggressively to top-quality Asian corporates after 2008 to escape dormant European and US economies, with the result that local banks were forced to move down the credit curve and focus on riskier small and medium sized enterprises and households instead.
亞洲銀行業還有更大的風險需要管理。2008年之後，西方銀行業開始大舉向亞洲頂級企業放貸以逃離低迷的歐美經濟體，結果使得亞洲本土銀行被迫向下調整，改爲主要向風險較高的中小型企業和家庭放貸。
Banks in developed Asia are also vulnerable. In South Korea, household debt is largely short term and carrying floating rates, exposing borrowers to rising interest rate risk. Now, regulators are encouraging banks to move clients to long-term, fixed rate mortgages and to bundle mortgages and sell them to the Korea Housing Finance Corporation.
亞洲發達國家的銀行業也存在弱點。在韓國，家庭債務大部分爲短期債務並且爲浮動利率，使借款人面臨利率不斷上升的風險。如今，監管機構正在鼓勵銀行使客戶轉爲借入利率固定的長期抵押貸款，將抵押貸款打包出售給韓國房地產金融公司(Korea Housing Finance Corporation)。
“Authorities are realising this [short-term debt] might be a risk,” says Alastair Wilson, head of sovereign risk at Moody’s Investors Service.
“當局開始意識到這（短期債務）可能存在風險，”穆迪投資者服務(Moody's Investors Service)的主權風險主管阿拉斯泰爾威爾遜(Alastair Wilson)稱。
