需要警惕新興市場公司債券風險

In 2008 investors learnt about financial chain reactions. This was not simply because the demise of Lehman Brothers hit other western groups; there was also fallout for emerging market companies.

2008年，投資者領略到了金融連鎖反應是怎麼回事。這並非僅僅因爲雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)的垮臺衝擊了其他西方集團；新興市場企業也感受到了衝擊波。

Take a look, for example, at a fascinating report issued by the Bank for International Settlements this week. It estimates that after the Lehman shock in 2008, about 50,000 companies in emerging countries such as Brazil, China and Russia suffered $30bn in losses when the dollar suddenly surged in value as a safe haven currency. This was because the companies held derivatives contracts – and while these had seemed safe when the dollar was weak, they unexpectedly produced losses after the Lehman shock because nobody had expected currencies to swing so wildly.

國際清算銀行(BIS)最近發表了一份耐人尋味的報告。該報告估算，2008年雷曼衝擊波過後，美元作爲避險貨幣突然走高，導致巴西、中國和俄羅斯等新興市場國家約5萬家公司損失300億美元。這是因爲這些公司持有衍生品合約。儘管當美元匯率較低時，這些合約看來是安全的，但雷曼衝擊波來襲後，它們意想不到地帶來虧損，因爲誰也沒想到匯率波動幅度竟如此之大。

It is a lesson in unexpected market consequences in a tightly interconnected world. It is particularly timely given that US Federal Reserve officials have this week signalled plans to tighten monetary policy next year – which has, in turn, pushed the dollar to a 17-month high, since higher rates will make US assets more attractive.

在相互聯繫密切的世界上，這種意想不到的市場後果給我們上了一課。鑑於美聯儲(Fed)官員最近表示計劃於明年收緊貨幣政策，這一課上得尤其及時。美聯儲發出的信號把美元匯率推高至17個月高點，因爲加息將使美國資產更具吸引力。

This could easily create new shocks. Since 2008, western central banks have kept monetary policy so loose that global investors have gobbled up emerging market assets in a quest for anything that might produce returns. This has led to a striking, but largely unnoticed, shift in the credit ecosystem: whereas companies in Russia, Brazil, China and India used to raise funds by borrowing money from banks, the BIS notes they have increasingly been selling bonds to asset managers instead.

這很可能帶來新的衝擊波。自2008年以來，西方央行一直維持着如此寬鬆的貨幣政策，以至於渴求收益的全球投資者競相購入新興市場資產。這導致信貸生態系統發生了一種重大但鮮爲人知的變化：國際清算銀行注意到，過去通過向銀行貸款來融資的俄羅斯、巴西、中國和印度企業，現在越來越多地向資產管理公司出售債券。

This creates a risk: when western rates rise, some of those investment flows into emerging markets could go into reverse, creating unexpected chain reactions. Indeed, a small version occurred last year, when markets swung wildly on speculation that the Fed was about to “taper” its super-loose monetary policy.

這就形成了一種風險：當西方利率升高時，這些流入新興市場的投資中的一部分可能會迴流，帶來意想不到的連鎖反應。實際上，這一劇情已在去年小規模上演——當人們猜測美聯儲即將“縮減”其超寬鬆的貨幣政策時，市場發生劇烈波動。

One point of concern is that these flows are obscured by data fog. If you look at national statistics for debt issuance, they suggest emerging market companies issued $152bn of new debt last year, creating a total of $650bn in outstanding bonds. However, if you look at reports from companies in China, Russia and India, they imply that outstanding bonds are $1.2tn, with $265bn in bond sales last year.

引起擔憂的一點是，這種資金流動被數據迷霧所遮蔽。如果你查看各國的發債統計數據，會發現新興市場公司去年新發債1520億美元，使未償債券總額達到6500億美元。然而，如果你閱覽中國、俄羅斯和印度公司的報告，會發現它們的未償債券總額達1.2萬億美元，去年發債2650億美元。

The reason for this dramatic difference is that many companies have sold debt through offshore vehicles, which are hard to track. Worse still, this trend appears to have gone hand in hand with growing currency mismatches, since much of the debt has been sold to foreign investors in dollars – but is being serviced by revenues in domestic currencies.

兩者差距如此大，原因在於許多公司通過難以追蹤的海外工具發行了債券。但更糟糕的是，這一趨勢似乎伴隨着日益嚴重的貨幣錯配——賣給外國投資者的債券大部分是美元債，而發行人使用以本幣計價的營收償還債務。

For some companies – say, big commodity groups in Russia, South Africa or Brazil – this mismatch will matter little as they have easy access to dollars. For others, a dollar swing could pose big risks. Raghuram Rajan, India’s central bank governor, warns of currency mismatches at many large Indian companies. The BIS fears “assets and liabilities are less likely to be matched at property developers in China or energy and utilities firms in India, which have been among the more active international debt issuers in recent years.”

對於某些公司——比如俄羅斯、南非和巴西的大型大宗商品集團——來說，這種貨幣錯配沒什麼關係，因爲它們很容易獲得美元。但對其他國家的企業來說，美元匯率波動可能帶來重大風險。印度央行行長拉吉拉姆•拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)對許多印度大公司的貨幣錯配提出了警示。國際清算銀行擔心，“對於中國的房地產開發商或者印度的能源和公用事業公司來說，資產與債務的匹配程度可能更低。近些年，這些公司在國際債券發行方面比較活躍。”

Worse, the asset management industry is highly concentrated, creating a growing tendency for bond investors to act as a herd. The risk, then, is that an Indian or Chinese company defaulting on a bond could create a bigger stampede – and further chain reactions.

更嚴重的是，資產管理行業高度集中，使得債券投資者發生羊羣行爲的傾向越來越大。那麼風險就在於，如果一家中國或印度公司的債券違約，就可能帶來更大規模的“跟風潮”，以及進一步的連鎖反應。

Such fears are not new: emerging markets have faced volatile investment flows before. And precisely because of this history, some officials think emerging markets companies are becoming savvier. One cheering detail about the BIS data, for example, is that emerging market companies are issuing bonds of longer maturity. Another is that they seem to be using fewer of the exotic derivatives that caused pain in 2008.

這種擔憂不是新鮮事兒：新興市場以前也經歷過反覆無常的投資流動。恰恰因爲這一歷史，有些官員認爲新興市場企業正變得更加老練。比如，國際清算銀行數據中令人振奮的一點是，新興市場公司所發行債券的期限在延長。另一點是，如今它們似乎減少使用在2008年造成痛苦的複雜衍生品。

Some central bank officials hope last year’s “taper tantrum” has also helped companies and investors to prepare. “The emerging markets have had an entire year to think about the risks,” points out a senior Fed official. “We have signalled our intentions very clearly.”

有些央行官員希望，去年的“縮減恐慌”(taper tantrum)也可能幫助公司和投資者做好了準備。“新興市場得到了整整一年時間考慮這些風險，”一位美聯儲官員指出，“我們非常明確地表達了我們的意圖。”

But it is one thing to think about risks in theory, quite another to confront a surging dollar and rising US rates in reality. And, as 2008 shows, in an interconnected world shocks have a nasty habit of cropping up where least expected – particularly amid data fog and asset-liability mismatches tucked in corners of the system that policy makers and investors are struggling to understand.

但在理論上思考風險是一回事，在現實中應對美元大幅走高和美國利率升高完全是另一回事。此外，正如2008年的經歷所證明的，在彼此聯繫的世界裏，衝擊很可能發端於那些最意想不到的地方，尤其是存在數據迷霧和資產-債務錯配的情況下。此類錯配隱藏在政策制定者和投資者難以理解的金融體系角落裏。