Lex專欄 取消貸存比上限有利銀行
Loosening credit standards is an odd way to deflate a credit bubble. But China’s credit market is particularly scary because of its shadow banking system. A change that lets banks lend more could allow sunshine in.
用放鬆信貸標準來抑制信貸泡沫是一種怪異的做法。但中國的信貸市場因其影子銀行體系而格外令人擔憂。讓銀行增加放貸的政策轉變可以讓陽光照射進來。
Late on Wednesday, China’s State Council said that it plans to remove the upper limit on banks’ loan to deposit ratio (LDR). Current rules stop banks from lending once loans reach 75 per cent of the deposit base. Removal of this cap should mean more loans. But most estimates find that the system’s average LDR is between 66 and 72 per cent. So credit has not necessarily been constrained by this policy alone. Slowing economic activity has crimped demand; loan quotas and banks’ risk aversion have capped supply.
週三晚些時候，中國國務院宣佈，計劃取消銀行貸存比上限。現行規定禁止銀行在貸款達到存款基礎的75%時繼續放貸。取消這一上限應該會意味着放貸增加。但多數評估發現，中國銀行業平均貸存比處於66%至72%之間。因此，信貸未必只受到這一規定的約束。經濟活動放緩減少了貸款需求；貸款額度和銀行的避險心理則限制了貸款供應。The announcement is meaningful all the same. Analysts estimate that some banks’ LDRs — including BOCOM and China Merchants Bank do exceed the official limit. Competition for deposits at banks close to the limit lifts costs in an already tight market, compressing net interest margins (NIMs) — a trend exacerbated at quarter end when the banks report their ratios. Bernstein estimates that a 1 per cent increase in the LDR would have a beneficial impact on both NIMs and loan growth, adding between 80 and 120 basis points to 2016 earnings. Consensus estimates for 2016 growth at the top four banks by market capitalisation, which include Bank of China , ICBC and China Construction Bank, are between 5 and 6 per cent.
這一聲明仍然具有意義。分析師估計，包括交通銀行(BOCOM)和招商銀行(CMB)在內，部分銀行的貸存比確實超出了官方上限。在本就緊張的市場上，接近達到貸存比上限的銀行爲爭取存款而展開的競爭會提升成本、壓縮淨息差(NIMs)——這種趨勢每逢銀行在季度末報告貸存比數據時都會加劇。伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)估計，貸存比上升1%就會對淨息差和貸款增長產生有利影響，使2016年的利潤提升80至120個基點。對於中國四家市值最高的銀行——包括中國銀行(BoC)、中國工商銀行(ICBC)和中國建設銀行(CCB)——來說，分析師預期它們在2016年的利潤將增長5%至6%。
More interesting is the potential impact on consumers and small businesses. The banks prefer to make loans to state-owned entities. These are easier to securitise, removing them from the LDR measurement. More capacity allows more lending to smaller customers, which source loans expensively in the grey market.
更有意思的是該政策對消費者和小企業的潛在影響。銀行傾向於貸款給國有企業。這些貸款更容易證券化，使它們不被納入貸存比計算之中。銀行放貸能力增強，可以向規模較小的客戶發放更多貸款，後者通常在灰色市場以較高的成本借貸。
