重啓單一名稱CDS市場挑戰巨大

The credit derivatives market started life with good intentions, designed as a risk management tool to help banks manage loan exposure to companies.

人們懷着良好意圖創立了信用衍生品市場，其設計初衷是作爲一種風險管理工具，幫助銀行管理對企業的貸款敞口。

Now, after a sharp decline following the financial crisis, Wall Street is pushing a second act for single-name credit default swaps.

現在，在金融危機造成的大幅下挫後，華爾街正在推動單一名稱信用違約互換(CDS)的重啓。

These are distinct from the CDS indices that provide exposure to whole classes of credit instead of just a single loan, which survived and thrived after the meltdown of AIG and other big sellers of single-name CDS.

單一名稱CDS與CDS指數截然不同，後者提供對整類信用產品的敞口，而非對某一筆貸款的敞口。在美國國際集團(AIG)和其他出售單一名稱CDS的大型機構崩潰後，CDS指數得以存活並繁榮發展。

The market in single-name CDS has plummeted to about a third of its size in 2008, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements, and some now fear the end is in sight. With company defaults at historic lows, there is little perceived need to buy insurance on individual companies with weak balance sheets.

國際清算銀行(BIS)的數據顯示，單一名稱CDS市場的規模已降至2008年的約三分之一，現在一些人憂慮這一市場的末日就在眼前。企業違約率處於歷史低位，很少有人認爲需要針對資產負債表薄弱的單個公司購買保險。

“If we don’t act on this now, we are concerned that more dealers will leave and there might not be enough banks supporting the product to make it viable to trade,” one trading head at a US asset manager says.

“如果我們現在不就此採取行動，我們擔憂更多經紀商會退出，以至於沒有足夠多的銀行支持這一產品，使其無法進行交易，”一家美國資產管理公司的交易主管說。

The benefits of a vibrant credit derivatives market include providing investors with a way to insure their portfolios against credit risk while also bolstering the trading of corporate bonds. The challenge of reviving single-name CDS appears substantial, however, given how banks have pulled away from supporting fixed income markets due to tougher capital and risk standards demanded by regulators since the crisis.

富有活力的信用衍生品市場帶來的好處包括，爲投資者提供一種爲資產組合投保以抵禦信用風險的方法，同時促進企業債券的交易。然而，由於金融危機後監管機構收緊了資本金要求並提出了更高的風險標準，銀行紛紛不再支持固定收益產品市場，使得復甦單一名稱CDS的挑戰看來十分巨大。

The solution touted by banks, asset managers and hedge funds is the broad adoption of central clearing. This has been the cornerstone of regulatory efforts after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and bailout of AIG in 2008 highlighted the vulnerability of institutions linked by a complex web of derivative transactions.

銀行、資產管理機構和對衝基金宣揚的解決方案是全面採用集中清算。雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破產及2008年AIG接受的紓困，凸顯出由複雜的衍生品交易網絡聯繫起來的金融機構的脆弱性，自那以後，集中清算成爲了監管機構各種努力的基石。

At some point US regulators are expected to write rules requiring central clearing for single-name CDS, following similar requirements for index trades.

美國監管機構預計將在未來某時制定規則，要求對單一名稱CDS進行集中清算，此前監管機構已對指數交易提出類似要求。

“We want to make sure there is ample liquidity in single-name CDS,” says Supurna VedBrat, co-head of electronic trading and market structure at BlackRock. “For dealers, trading CDS bilaterally is very capital intensive, and by moving it into a cleared framework, it is more capital efficient. It is a viable alternative to follow to preserve trading in the product.” By reducing capital requirements for banks, via centralised clearing, the hope is that single-name CDS become popular, helping improve broader credit market liquidity.

“我們希望確保單一名稱CDS市場具有足夠的流動性，”貝萊德(BlackRock)電子交易和市場結構聯席主管蘇普爾娜•韋布拉特(Supurna VedBrat)表示。“對經紀商來說，進行CDS的雙邊交易需要投入大量資本，而將其轉移到一個更爲簡潔的框架下，資本利用將更爲高效。這是維護此產品交易的可行替代辦法。”通過集中化清算降低銀行的資本要求，有望使單一名稱CDS更受歡迎，有助於改善更大範圍內的信用市場的流動性。

“If people want to offload some of their risk, they are often not finding the liquidity to do it,” says Hussein Dbouk, head of CDS trading at HSBC. “CDS can be used as an effective credit risk management tool. Better liquidity in single-name CDS will be beneficial for credit investors.”

“如果人們希望卸下一些風險，他們通常找不到流動性去這麼做，”匯豐銀行(HSBC) CDS交易主管侯賽因•德布卡(Hussein Dbouk)稱，“CDS可以作爲一個有效的信用風險管理工具來使用。單一名稱CDS流動性的改善將有利於信貸投資者。”

Intercontinental Exchange, a credit clearing house, has seen an influx of institutional or buyside investors this year, adding 12 firms since January to the 18 already established.

信貸清算機構美國洲際交易所(Intercontinental Exchange)今年已經見證了機構或買方投資者的涌入，自1月起已經有12家公司加入了原有18家公司的行列。

But not all buyside firms are convinced. The main objection is the increased cost for investors using the service. Even when trading over the counter, most firms now post initial margin — collateral intended to cover losses should a counterparty default.

但並非所有買方公司都相信集中清算。主要反對之處在於投資者使用該服務的成本日益增加。即便進行場外交易，絕大多數公司如今也要提交初始保證金——即一旦對方違約用來彌補損失的抵押品。

“It comes down to a simple math problem of whether I have to post more or less margin by moving to clearing,” says one senior executive at a large US credit hedge fund. “I don’t think this will happen until single-name OTC trades are mandated to have a higher margin than cleared ones.”

“這就歸結到一個簡單的數學問題——如果進行集中清算，我必須增加還是減少保證金，”美國一家大型信貸對衝基金的高管稱，“在單一名稱CDS的場外交易被要求收取的保證金高於集中清算之前，我認爲集中清算不會發生。”

A sticking point, however, is that the actual amount of initial margin for a non-cleared swap is typically less than that required by a clearing house.

然而，關鍵在於，非集中清算的互換協議的初始保證金實際數額，通常少於清算機構要求的數額。

“My biggest concern is the margin on selling protection, which at times can be 100 per cent of the trade,” says Michael O’Brien, director of global trading at Eaton Vance. “That is a deal-breaker. That has to be solved.”

“我最大的顧慮是出售這種保險要交的保證金，有時可以達到交易金額的100%，”億廷繁世(Eaton Vance)全球交易總監邁克爾•奧布萊恩(Michael O’Brien)稱，“這是一個破壞交易的問題，必須解決。”

New international rules mandating standardised margin requirements for bilateral trades will increase the cost of trading bilaterally, encouraging firms to undertake clearing. The rules have recently been given an extended implementation date to September 2016.

新的國際規則對雙邊交易設定了標準化的保證金要求，這將增加雙邊交易的成本，鼓勵公司進行集中清算。新規的實施日期最近已經延長至2016年9月。

But requiring firms to pay more to trade with no guarantee of better credit market liquidity is questionable for some.

但是，對於一些人來說，在不能保證改善信貸市場流動性的情況下，要求公司支付更多交易成本，值得商榷。

“It’s a big ‘if’ whether this will make a difference. I’m torn about what to do,” says the derivatives trading head at a US credit hedge fund.

“無論是否會帶來不同，這都是一個很重要的假設條件。我很猶豫，不知道該怎麼辦，”美國一家信貸對衝基金的衍生品交易主管稱。

Broad market participation is integral to reviving single-name CDS via centralised clearing. If only a few clients opt for clearing their positions, dealers could find themselves clearing some client trades and not clearing others, splitting their book and potentially increasing costs further.

廣泛的市場參與是通過集中清算復甦單一名稱CDS市場不可或缺的條件。如果只有少數客戶選擇集中清算頭寸，經紀商會發現自己只爲部分客戶交易提供清算，而沒有爲其他交易提供清算，因此得分開記賬，並且可能進一步增加成本。