日本國債融資模式不靠譜

As the eurozone’s great experiment with negative interest rates continues, the dynamic of global capital flows has changed dramatically, responding to big shifts in the relationships between the world’s main currencies. While the US dollar is in much the same place relative to the yen as it was at the start of the year, the euro has depreciated by more than a 10th against the Japanese currency. This has confounded an army of forecasters who expected more yen weakness in light of the failure of Abenomics to stoke Japanese inflation. They also worried that Japan would be exporting deflation via a weaker currency to a eurozone that was struggling with deficient demand.

在歐元區繼續推進大規模的負利率試驗之際，全球資本流動狀況發生了顯著改變，這是因應世界主要貨幣之間的關係的鉅變。儘管現在美元兌日元匯率和年初基本一樣，但歐元兌日元貶值逾10%。這讓一些預測人士感到困惑，他們曾預計，由於“安倍經濟學”未能讓日本通脹上升，日元將會繼續貶值。他們還擔心，日本將通過日元貶值將通縮輸出至正在艱難應對需求不足的歐元區。

Mercifully we have all been spared a turn of events that would have been a recipe for much fiercer currency wars than we have experienced so far. The reason is that the attraction of the yen as a funding currency for carry trades has been completely undermined by the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing and all the other pressures that have contributed to negative eurozone bond yields.

幸運的是，事態一直沒有進一步發展，這本會導致比我們迄今經歷的所有貨幣戰爭還要猛烈得多的貨幣戰。原因是，日元作爲套息交易的融資貨幣的吸引力，完全被歐洲央行(ECB)的量化寬鬆舉措以及其他導致歐元區債券出現負利率的壓力因素所破壞。

The ECB and the Bank of Japan have between them pulled off the remarkable trick of making the bond market of a country where public sector debt reached 226 percent of gross domestic product last year look a sound bet to risk-averse international investors.

歐洲央行和日本央行(BoJ)合力完成了一出了不起的把戲，即讓厭惡風險的國際投資者將一個公共部門債務達到GDP 226%的國家的債市視爲穩健的押注。

Japanese government bonds saw strong inflows in the first quarter, following a notable flow of capital in the second half of 2014. That has been a perfectly justifiable response to the narrowing of interest-rate differentials and lower than expected inflation. For foreign investors piling into JGBs, additional spice comes from the fact that the BoJ’s bond-buying programme conveniently underpins the investment.

日本政府債券在2014年後半年出現明顯資金流入之後，今年一季度又吸引了大量資金。從利差縮小和通脹低於預期的角度來看，這是相當合理的。對大舉買入日本政府債券的外國投資者而言，吸引力上升來自如下事實，即日本央行的債券購買計劃有利於這種投資。

At the turn of the year the BoJ believed that foreigners held 9.3 per cent of the total stock of Japanese Treasury bills and JGBs. This is quite a development in a market where the Japanese have traditionally lent to fellow Japanese. In effect the JGB market, hitherto notoriously characterised by home bias, is succumbing to globalisation.

今年年初，日本央行估算，外國人持有日本國庫票據(T-bills)及政府債券存量的9.3%。在一個日本人傳統上只向本國國民放貸的市場上，這是一個相當了不起的進展。實際上，迄今仍以“本土傾向”著稱的日本政府債券市場正逐步走向全球化。

In one sense that is helpful. If an elderly population is saving less in the face of rising bills for demographically inspired social spending, it can make sense for foreigners to plug the gap. On the other hand global capital is frisky and fickle, as so many Asian countries discovered to their cost in the financial crisis of 1997-98. Of course, Japan has a huge stock of external assets and far less external borrowings than the US or the eurozone. That provides a cushion against financial instability. And the low interest rate environment takes the sting out of debt servicing.

從某種意義上來說，這是有益的。如果老年人因人口因素引發的社會支出費用上升而減少儲蓄，讓外國人填補空缺是明智的做法。另一方面，全球資本是善變的，許多亞洲國家在1997年至1998年的金融危機期間付出慘重代價才明白了這一點。當然，日本在海外擁有鉅額資產，海外借款也比美國或歐元區少得多。這爲日本防範金融動盪提供了緩衝。低利率環境也讓償債變得不那麼艱難。

The effective interest rate on Japanese government debt was the lowest in the OECD at 0.9 per cent in 2014, limiting net interest payments to 1 per cent of GDP, well below the OECD average of 1.6 per cent, according to the grouping of nations. Yet as the OECD’s latest country report on Japan points out, the financing of large government deficits at low rates by savers will not continue indefinitely, leaving Japan vulnerable to rising interest rates.

經合組織(OECD)的數據顯示，日本政府債券的有效利率是經合組織中最低的，在2014年僅有0.9%，這讓其淨利息支付只佔到GDP的1%，遠低於經合組織1.6%的平均水平。然而正如經合組織在其最新發布的日本經濟年度報告中指出的那樣，由儲戶以低利率爲鉅額政府赤字融資的模式將不會永遠持續下去，這讓日本很容易受到利率上升的衝擊。

The report adds that a normalisation in the government’s effective borrowing rate to 3 per cent would, for example, expand the budget deficit from 8.5 per cent of GDP in 2013 to about 13 per cent. That would be a panic-worthy fiscal nightmare in a country where government revenues have been weakened by anaemic growth, and where public spending on the elderly has proved exceptionally hard to control.

該報告補充稱，例如，如果日本政府的有效借款利率迴歸正常的3%，預算赤字佔GDP的比例就會從2013年的8.5%升至13%左右。在一個政府收入因經濟增長低迷而下降，而且投向老年人的公共支出很難控制的國家，這將是一場值得擔憂的財政噩夢。