中國面臨2.7萬億美元債券再融資挑戰

China’s $4tn bond market faces a refinancing challenge over the next five years as more than half of the outstanding debt matures, heightening concerns over default risk by some borrowers.

中國4萬億美元的債券市場將在接下來5年面臨再融資挑戰，原因是超過一半的未償付債務將要到期，這加劇了人們對某些借款人的違約風險的擔憂。

Companies, state-owned enterprises, financial institutions and sovereign borrowers — including the central government and local authorities — have $409bn of onshore and offshore bonds maturing in 2018, followed by $619bn in 2019 and $664bn in 2020, according to data provider Dealogic. The $2.7tn in maturing debt represents more than half the total amount of China’s $4tn in outstanding bond issuance, including perpetual bonds.

根據數據提供商Dealogic的數據，2018年，中國的公司、國有企業、金融機構和主權借款人（包括中央政府和地方政府）將有4090億美元在岸和離岸債券到期，2019年爲6190億美元，2020年爲6640億美元。將要到期的2.7萬億美元債務佔中國4萬億美元未償付債務總額（包括永續債）的一半以上。

A test for many borrowers is that new debt will be more expensive given a higher interest rate environment.

對許多借款人來說的一個考驗是，在利率走高的環境下，新債的成本將會提高。

Alex Wolf, senior emerging markets economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments, said: “If companies reissue or borrow at higher rates then it would raise overall debt servicing costs.”

安本標準投資管理(Aberdeen Standard Investments)新興市場高級經濟學家亞歷克斯?沃爾夫(Alex Wolf)表示：“如果公司以更高的利率重新發債或借款，那將推高總償債成本。”

Higher servicing costs are expected to weigh on some borrowers, given the scale of China’s debt binge in recent years.

考慮到近年來中國債務狂潮的規模，預計更高的償債成本將給一些借款人帶來壓力。

Analysts at Dealogic said that “there is a reason for worry” as “the whole economy has been built on too much debt”, which “could be a [source of] pressure for the companies.”

Dealogic的一些分析師表示“有理由”擔憂，因爲“整個經濟建立在太多債務之上”，這“可能成爲公司的壓力（來源）”。

A significant amount of short-term debt was sold in 2015 to finance corporate activity, with a large portion of this issuance maturing over the next few years, said Dealogic.

Dealogic表示，2015年發售了大量短期債券，爲企業活動提供資金，其中很大一部分將在接下來幾年到期。

Li-Gang Liu, chief China economist at Citi Group, said: “We worry about corporate debt. State owned-enterprises are a major debtor in the Chinese economy. I do see more defaults will be allowed this year than last year.”

花旗集團(Citi Group)首席中國經濟學家劉利剛說：“我們擔心企業債。國有企業是中國經濟中的一大債務人。我認爲相對於去年，今年將允許發生更多的違約。”

Citi said there have been 89 corporate defaults since the first case a few years ago. In 2016 there were 48 defaults, although this reduced to 33 last year, Citi said. Mr Liu added that the government is nonetheless “cautious” in allowing state-owned enterprises to default, and would not permit widespread defaults.

花旗表示，自幾年前發生第一例企業違約之後，迄今已經發生89起。花旗表示，2016年有48起違約，儘管2017年減少到33起。但劉利剛表示，政府在允許國有企業違約方面較爲“謹慎”，並且政府不會允許大面積違約。

Mr Wolf added: “In terms of how China has always handled debt and credit issues, the interesting question is whether we will see political choices to allow more state-owned enterprises to default.”

沃爾夫補充稱：“在中國處理債務和信貸問題的一貫方式方面，有趣的問題是，我們是否將看到允許更多國有企業違約的政治選擇。”

Bond defaults have been rare in China’s onshore corporate bond market until recently, with the government often intervening to bail out troubled issuers. The first onshore corporate bond default occurred in March 2014, after privately owned Chaori Solar missed an interest payment.

直到不久前，在中國的在岸企業債券市場上，債券違約都很少見，政府通常會介入，爲陷入困境的發債者紓困。第一起在岸企業債券違約發生在2014年3月，當時民營的上海超日太陽能科技(Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology)未能如期償付一筆利息。

Baoding Tianwei, a power equipment manufacturer, became the first SOE to default in 2015. The default led analysts to suggest this was a sign that the Chinese government was more willing to let market forces take precedence.

2015年發生了第一起國企債券違約，違約方是電力設備製造商保定天威(Baoding Tianwei)。這起違約使分析師認爲，這是中國政府更願意讓市場力量佔上風的一個跡象。

Some market commentators believe the refinancing does not pose a significant risk. Analysts at Moody’s, which only rates offshore Chinese bonds, said earlier this week that “the debt maturity and subsequent refinancing needs of Asian corporates” this year will “be manageable”.

一些市場評論人士認爲，再融資不構成重大風險。只評級中國離岸債權的穆迪(Moody's)近日表示，今年“亞洲企業的債務到期和之後的再融資需求”將是“可控的”。

They said that “the buoyant bond market” last year allowed many Asian companies to issue debt for refinancing. They added that 2017 saw the “all-time strongest rated issuance level for Asia”.

他們表示，去年“繁榮的債券市場”讓許多亞洲公司能夠爲再融資發債。他們補充稱，2017年“亞洲的發債速度達到空前水平”。