科技與財富 蘋果的市值到頂了嗎

Earlier this week, Apple became the first U.S. company with a market value above $700 billion. Its sales soared in the second half of 2014, and the iPhone 6 has been its most successful product. With the acquisition of headphone maker Beats, the creation of a new streaming music service, and particularly the highly anticipated release of its smart watch, the company seems to be charging ahead on many fronts.

本週早些時候，蘋果（Apple）成爲首家市值超過7000億美元的美國公司。2014年下半年，蘋果公司的銷售額猛增，iPhone 6成爲該公司最成功的產品。蘋果似乎在許多領域正突飛猛進：收購了耳機廠商Beats，推出了新的流媒體音樂服務，併發布了萬衆期待的智能手錶。

Despite all that’s going right, however, new signs indicate that the tech giant could be in a vulnerable spot against competitors. Tesla Motors, the electric carmaker, has reportedly poached 150 employees from Apple, according to Bloomberg. This is not a surprise in the competitive world of technology, but the scale of Tesla’s talent grab should be a wake-up call for Apple. That doesn’t mean the iconic company is in trouble, just that it needs to innovate aggressively to stay on top.

然而，儘管科技巨頭蘋果正一切順風順水，但有新的跡象表明，該公司可能容易受到來自於競爭對手的打擊。據彭博（Bloomberg）報道，電動汽車製造商特斯拉汽車公司（Tesla Motors ）從蘋果挖走了150名員工。在競爭激烈的技術界裏，挖人不足爲奇，但一下子被特斯拉挖走了150名僱員，爲蘋果敲響了警醒。這並不意味着蘋果這家標誌性企業陷入了困境，只是表明蘋果要更加積極創新，才能保持領先地位。

The problem is that the market share for Apple’s largest business segment — the iPhone and iPad family — while still high, declined by about 2% between the fourth quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2014, ending at 20%, according to data compiled by market intelligence firm IDC.

問題在於，市場調研公司IDC彙總的數據顯示，雖然蘋果的最大業務板塊——iPhone和iPad系列產品——的市場份額仍然處於較高水平，但在2012年四季度至2014年四季度期間，下滑了約2％，降至20％。

In addition, the popularity of the company’s phones in China, a large and attractive market with 550 million smartphone users, could be threatened by the recent entry of e-commerce behemoth Alibaba into this segment. With lots of cash on its balance sheet for marketing, a popular online sales platform, and first-hand knowledge of how to navigate the Chinese market, Alibaba could give Apple a run for its money.

此外，龐大而誘人的中國市場，擁有5.5億智能手機用戶。而電子商務巨頭阿里巴巴最近進入了手機行業，這可能對蘋果手機在中國市場熱賣造成威脅。阿里巴巴擁有高額營銷資金、廣受歡迎的在線銷售平臺，以及如何在中國市場經營的第一手資料，可能對蘋果形成極大的競爭壓力。

What this implies is that Apple can’t afford to become complacent. Even though the new iPhone has been wildly successful due to its larger screen size, it’s not dramatically different from its predecessors. Other than minor improvements, the iPhone 6 is almost identical to the iPhone 5S, which in turn is similar to the model before it. That is Apple’s big problem.

這意味着蘋果不能自滿。儘管新款iPhone因屏幕尺寸更大而大獲成功，但與上一代產品相比，並無太大不同。除了一些小的改進外，iPhone 6幾乎與iPhone 5S一模一樣，而iPhone 5S又與其上一代產品大同小異。這對蘋果而言是一個大問題。

In order to maintain its position, Apple can’t afford to simply tweak or upgrade its existing line of popular products. It needs to create new lines that truly change the way we live and work. The beauty about the original iPhone was that it was unlike anything else at the time and, more importantly, it revolutionized our relationship with mobile phones. By creating a powerfully simple interface and turning the phone into a mini computer, Apple was able to differentiate itself and redefine the market. When the dust settled, it was Apple’s market.

爲了維持自身地位，蘋果不能簡單地對現有熱門產品稍作改進或升級，而是需要創造出真正改變人們生活和工作方式的新產品線。初代iPhone的妙處在於，它不同於當時的其它所有產品，更重要的是，它徹底改變了人們與手機的關係。通過打造簡潔的界面，並將手機變成一臺小型電腦，蘋果公司得以脫穎而出，並重新定義了整個市場。當塵埃落定，蘋果成爲當之無愧的市場霸主。

To be sure, Samsung, a big competitor in the smartphone and tablet space, is also losing market share, but that’s cold comfort as the Google Android operating system continues to dominate the market and Windows phones threaten to take market share from Apple iOS. Unless Apple develops something that will once again change the world of technology, and indeed the way humans function, it could wind up being just another corporate giant whose greatest achievements lie behind it.

確實，蘋果在智能手機和平板電腦領域的強敵——三星（Samsung）也在丟失市場份額，但這對蘋果起不到什麼安慰作用，因爲谷歌（Google）的Android操作系統繼續主導市場，而Windows手機也即將從蘋果iOS手中攻城掠地。除非蘋果再次開發出將改變整個科技界，乃至人類活動方式的產品，否則，它可能會成爲又一家江郎才盡的企業巨頭。

Luckily for Apple fans, there are signs that the company gets this.

對蘋果粉絲而言，所幸的是，有跡象表明該公司已經認識到了這一點。

In his address at the Goldman Sachs Technology & Internet Conference this week, Apple CEO Tim Cook hit on several initiatives that his company is undertaking to expand its footprint beyond its tried and tested product lines. This includes the application of its iOS to the home, car, and personal health markets, the utility of the smart watch in managing our lives, the Apple Pay system that is becoming ubiquitous and simplifies the mobile payment process for consumers considerably, as well as Continuity – which enables Apple features to work seamlessly on multiple devices.

本週，蘋果首席執行官蒂姆o庫克在高盛集團（Goldman Sachs）的科技與互聯網大會（Technology & Internet Conference）上發表演講，談到該公司正在採取若干舉措，將其業務範圍拓展到現有產品線之外。新產品包括蘋果iOS操作系統在家居、汽車以及個人健康市場的應用；利用智能手錶來管理我們的生活；正在廣泛普及並大大簡化了消費者移動支付過程的蘋果支付（Apple Pay）系統；以及能使蘋果功能在多臺設備上實現無縫銜接的多設備交互工具 Continuity。

Of these, possibly the most disruptive are the smart watch and Apple Pay. The watch, once only a Dick Tracy fantasy, is a move towards greater miniaturization of smartphone technology and the ability to combine mobile calls, music, health and fitness tracking, mobile payments, smart device controls, and many other things literally on your wrist. Apple Pay enables you to store all your credit cards numbers securely and simply pay by waving your phone in front of a reader, thereby eliminating the need to carry wallets. While the technology isn’t new, the simplicity of Apple’s system seems to be catching on with vendors and consumers.

其中，最具顛覆性的可能是蘋果智能手錶和蘋果支付。曾經，智能手錶只不過是電影《至尊神探》（Dick Tracy）中的幻想，如今，該產品是智能手機技術的進一步微型化，真正做到了將移動電話、音樂、健康和健身跟蹤、移動支付、智能設備控制以及其它諸多功能結合在一起，在小小的一塊腕錶上實現。通過蘋果支付，用戶能安全存儲自己所有的信用卡號碼，而支付時，只需在讀取器前揮動手機，因而不用再隨身攜帶錢包。雖然這並不是一項新技術，但蘋果系統的簡便性，似乎正令其在商家和消費者中流行起來。

On Thursday, billionaire investor Carl Ichan predicted that Apple’s market value could hit close to $1 trillion, according to a letter posted on his website. That may or may not happen, and only time will tell whether Apple can withstand competition in a crowded market. As long as the company avoids getting complacent, it will prosper.

週四，億萬富翁投資者卡爾o伊坎在自己網站上發表公開信，預測蘋果公司的市值可能逼近1萬億美元。這是否能實現還不好說。蘋果能否經受住來自於市場上衆多競爭對手的挑戰，這一點只有靠時間來證明。蘋果只要能戒驕戒躁，就會蓬勃發展。