希臘人對緊縮政策的耐心逼近極限

NEA IONIA, Greece — Alexandra Nikolovieni, 55, lost her job escorting young children on a school bus four years ago and has not been able to find another one since. To help financially, her daughter and her son-in-law, who have two children, moved into her house. But now they have lost their jobs, too.

希臘新伊奧尼亞——亞歷山德拉·尼克羅維尼(Alexandra Nikolovieni)現年55歲，四年前，她失去了在校車上護送幼童的工作，之後就一直沒有找到其他工作。爲了接濟她，女兒和女婿帶着兩個孩子，搬到她家居住。但現在，他們自己也失業了。

Ms. Nikolovieni, who volunteers at a food pantry in this suburb of Athens, says that every month she sees more and more people like her, qualifying for bundles of groceries and picking out used shoes for themselves or their children.

現在，尼克羅維尼在雅典這片郊區的一個食品分發處擔任志願者，她說，每個月都有越來越多的人和自己一樣，有資格領取各類食品雜貨，併爲自己或孩子挑選二手鞋。

“Are things getting better?” she said. “I don’t think so.”

“狀況是在改善嗎？”她說。“我覺得沒有。”

Nowhere have austerity policies been more aggressively tried — and generally failed to live up to results promised by advocates — than in Greece. After more than four years of belt tightening, patience is wearing thin, and tentative signs of improvement have not yet trickled down into the lives of average Greeks.

希臘嘗試推出了最爲嚴格的緊縮政策，但總體而言，倡導這些政策的人士做出的承諾並沒有實現。勒緊腰帶的日子已經過了四年多，人們變得越來越不耐煩，但初步改善的跡象尚未惠及普通希臘人的生活。

Now, after its Parliament failed to pick a president on Monday, forcing early elections, Greece faces a turning point in how to heal its devastated economy.

本週一，希臘議會未能挑選出新的總統，因此該國不得不提前舉行大選，對於如何恢復其千瘡百孔的經濟，希臘面臨着一個轉折點。

In the Jan. 25 general election, a majority center-right coalition government that has reluctantly stuck with austerity policies will face a charismatic left-wing challenger who says it is time for Greece to take its future into its own hands and do what it can to stimulate growth. Whichever path the country chooses, the outcome is likely to have broad implications for Greece and its place in the European Union.

中間偏右人士組成的多數派聯合政府勉強堅持緊縮政策，在1月25日的大選中，他們將與頗具感召力的左翼挑戰者一決高下。挑戰者表示，現在是時候由希臘來把握自己的未來，以竭盡所能地刺激經濟增長。無論該國選擇怎樣的道路，其結果都很可能對希臘及其在歐盟中的位置產生廣泛影響。

Among international policy makers and economists, the debate over austerity remains as intense as ever. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, the most high-profile advocate of the argument that only through fiscal prudence can nations achieve stability and prosperity, has given little ground even as larger and more influential countries like France and Italy have started balking at her demands.

國際政策制定者和經濟學家對緊縮政策的爭論仍然激烈如昔。一種觀點認爲，只有在財政上審慎行事，纔有可能實現國家的穩定和繁榮。德國總理默克爾是這個觀點最引人矚目的支持者，即便更大更有影響力的國家，比如法國和意大利，對她的要求已經開始猶豫遲疑，默克爾卻幾乎毫不讓步。

But at the street level in Greece, there is little debate anymore, if there ever was. The images of suffering here have not been that different from the grainy black and white photos of the United States in the 1930s. Suicides have shot up. Cars sit abandoned in the streets. People sift garbage looking for food.

但在希臘的街頭巷尾，就算以前有過爭論，現在也幾乎聽不到了。在這裏，生計艱難的狀況與美國20世紀30年代那些顆粒感很強的黑白照片沒什麼不同。自殺率直線上升，車輛被遺棄在街頭，人們在垃圾堆裏翻找食物。

About 900,000 of the more than 1.3 million who are out of work have not had a paycheck in more than two years, experts say.

專家說，希臘130多萬的失業者中，已經有90萬失業超過兩年。

Kostas Polychronopoulos, who runs a volunteer soup kitchen in Athens and has been out of a job since 2009, said he had seen many shocking things in recent years, including an old woman in a fur coat who watched from a distance for a long time before finally approaching to accept food.

科斯塔斯·帕利科洛斯(Kostas Polychronopoulos)從2009年開始一直處於失業狀態，現在他管理着雅典的一個志願施粥處。帕利科洛斯說自己最近幾年看到了很多令人震驚的事情，其中一件是，一位穿着裘皮外套的老太太，遠遠地看了他們很久，纔過來領取食物。

When he insisted on taking her home, he found she was living in an empty apartment. “She didn’t even have water,” he said.

他堅持要送她回家，結果發現她住在一處空蕩蕩的公寓裏。“連水都沒有，”他說。

Even supporters of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras say that he faces an uphill battle to persuade the electorate to stay the course after five years of austerity.

就連希臘總理安東尼斯·薩馬拉斯(Antonis Samaras)的支持者都說，他將面臨一場艱苦卓絕的戰鬥：說服選民在經歷了五年的緊縮之後繼續堅持下去。

His principal opponent, Alexis Tsipras, is promising to defy Greece’s creditors, renegotiate the country’s enormous debt, cut some taxes and work to restore cut pensions.

而他的主要對手、左翼領導人亞歷克西斯·奇普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)則承諾，自己將違抗希臘債權人的要求，就該國龐大的債務進行重新協商，削減一些稅收，努力恢復遭到削減的養老金。

It is unclear where such an act of defiance might lead, whether Greece’s creditors would be willing to change their approach or whether Greece even might find itself in the unprecedented position of facing expulsion from the eurozone, or even the European bloc altogether.

目前還不清楚這種對抗行爲可能會帶來什麼效果，是希臘的債權人願意改弦更張，還是希臘將處於一個前所未有的境地，遭到歐元區甚至是歐盟的驅逐。

In a wide-ranging review of the Greece program last year, the I.M.F. found that many of its predictions had failed. There was a sharp fall in imports, but little gain in exports. Public debt overshot original predictions. Predicted revenues from selling public assets were way off. The banking system, perceived as relatively sound at the beginning of the bailout, began having problems as the economy soured.

去年，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)對希臘的項目進行了一個大範圍的評審，發現它的很多預測都落了空。進口量急劇下降，但出口量幾乎沒有增長。公共債務超過了原來的預測。出售公共資產獲得的收入和預測相差懸殊。救助行動剛開始時，銀行系統還比較健全，但隨着經濟的惡化，它也開始出現問題。

Looking back, the I.M.F. concluded that many errors had been made, including too much emphasis on raising taxes instead of cutting expenses. In addition, the monetary fund overestimated the ability of the government to deliver the changes it was demanding — because they were proving politically unpopular and because Greek institutions were far weaker that anyone understood.

回顧過去，IMF認爲行動中出現了很多錯誤，比如過分強調增稅而不是削減開支。此外，IMF高估了希臘政府做出它要求的變化的能力，一則因爲這些變化顯然在政治上不得人心，二則由於衆所周知的原因，希臘的機構比所有人想得都更脆弱。

Over the last four years, the three lenders have demanded more than 800 actions a year, Greek officials say, requiring hundreds of new laws, sometimes changed and readopted within weeks or days.

在過去四年裏，三個貸款方要求採取的舉措每年超過了800個，希臘官員說，這需要採用數百項新的法律，有時候幾周或幾天內就會變更並被重新採用。

Administering these changes would have been difficult in a country with sound institutions, but Greece’s were filled with poorly qualified political appointees and were undergoing hiring freezes and budget cuts even as they were supposed to be managing a huge overhaul: a large assortment of new taxes, the opening of closed professions and the sale of state-owned assets.

在一個制度健全的國家裏，做出這樣的變化都很難，何況希臘還有很多難以勝任的、出於政治原因獲得任命的人。機構不再招聘新人，並且削減了預算，即便如此，他們還是需要掌控巨大改變的進程：推出諸多的新稅種，開放一些封閉的職業，出售國有資產。

Experts say that even now the Greek tax collection system does not truly function. Investigations into the Greek elite and their secret foreign accounts have foundered even in the face of public exposure of the accounts.

專家說，即便是現在，希臘的稅務徵收體系也沒有真正運轉起來。雖然希臘精英階層的祕密外國賬戶遭到了公開曝光，針對他們和這些賬號的調查還是失敗了。

The one bright spot in the economy has been tourism. But even on Greece’s most famous islands, such as Corfu, there is little sense of relief. Many tourists come on cut-rate or all-inclusive packages. The wages of hotel workers have been cut severely, and many are not paid for months, if at all, according to union officials and Corfu’s mayor, Kostas Nikolouzos.

旅遊業是希臘經濟上的一個亮點。但是，即使是在希臘最著名的島嶼，比如科孚島，人們也難以安心。很多遊客享受了折扣費率或全包價格。工會官員和科孚島的市長科斯塔斯·尼克羅佐斯(Kostas Nikolouzos)表示，酒店工作人員的工資嚴重下滑，很多人的工資被拖延了好幾個月，有些人更是完全拿不到薪水。

Mr. Nikolouzos said he was worried that drastic budget cuts could affect the islands’ ability to attract tourists. The municipality once had a budget of 13 million euros a year for capital repairs. This year, it will be one million euros, though roads are buckling and some villagers can no longer drink their tap water.

尼克羅佐斯說，他擔心大幅削減預算，可能會影響到這些島嶼吸引遊客的能力。市政府以前有1300萬歐元的預算來進行設施維護。今年，儘管道路日益破損，有些村子的自來水無法飲用，這筆預算卻只有100萬歐元。

Eleni Alexaki, 56, has worked as a hotel maid for more than 20 years. She was cleaning 20 rooms a day at the beginning of the crisis and now cleans 35, while her pay has gone from 1,600 euros a month to 985. She receives no holiday pay and fewer days off.

56歲的葉萊妮·阿勒科薩克(Eleni Alexaki)在一家酒店當了20多年的服務員。危機剛開始的時候，她每天打掃20間客房，現在每天打掃35間，工資還從每月的1600歐元降到了985歐元，並且沒有節假日工資，休息日也減少了。

“And they terrorize us,” she said. “They say, ‘There, the door is there.’ ”

“他們還恐嚇我們，”她說。“他們說，‘門就在那邊，要走請便。’”