如果你厭倦了博茨瓦納和突尼斯 那就去塔吉克斯坦投資

If you are bored of Botswana, tired of Tunisia and Mongolia is just not edgy enough any more then perhaps Tajikistan could be your next true frontier market destination.

如果你厭倦了博茨瓦納和突尼斯，覺得蒙古也不再時髦了，那麼，塔吉克斯坦或許能夠成爲你的下一個真正前沿的投資目的地。

The Tajik government certainly hopes so. It has just organised its first ever investment conference – and with some 600 people in attendance, it would seem there is certainly some curiosity about what Tajikistan has to offer.

塔吉克斯坦政府當然希望如此。該國政府剛剛舉辦了有史以來的首次投資大會，大約600人出席了會議——由此可以看出，有一些人想知道塔吉克斯坦能提供些什麼。

“The development of the private sector and attracting investment is one of our top priorities,” Tajikistan’s strongman president, Emomali Rahmon, told the assembled delegates in Dushanbe’s national library. “We definitely need huge investment to fully realise our resources and potential.”

“我們的首要任務之一是發展私營部門和吸引投資,”鐵腕總統埃莫馬利•拉赫蒙(Emomali Rakhmon)在首都杜尚別的國家圖書館告訴與會代表，“我們需要大量投資以充分利用我們的資源，發揮我們的潛力。”

International investors may have an opportunity to take a closer look at Tajikistan soon: the central bank last week signed up Standard & Poor’s to provide Tajikistan’s first credit rating, a move which may be a prelude to a maiden bond. And Talco, the state aluminium company, has suggested it may consider a listing in a few years’ time.

國際投資者可能很快有機會進一步瞭解塔吉克斯坦：該國央行上週與標準普爾(Standard & Poor's)簽署協議，將由該機構對塔吉克斯坦進行首次信用評級。這一舉措意味着塔吉克斯坦或許將首次發行債券。國有的塔吉克斯坦鋁業公司(Talco)表示可能考慮在幾年內上市。

With 8m people and GDP of just $8.5bn last year (making it one of the world’s 30 poorest countries by GDP per capita), Tajikistan is not an obvious destination for foreign investment. Add endemic corruption, unreliable electricity supplies, ever-changing tax and customs regulations, an economy under pressure from the slowdown in Russia and competition from politically-backed Chinese investors and it is clear that investing in Tajikistan is only for the hardiest souls.

塔吉克斯坦有800萬人口，去年國內生產總值(GDP)僅爲85億美元（這使其成爲世界上按照人均GDP衡量最貧窮的30個國家之一），它並非是一個外國投資者容易想到的投資目的國。再加上普遍的腐敗問題、不穩定的電力供應、變來變去的稅務和關稅法規、俄羅斯經濟放緩給該國經濟造成的壓力、以及來自有政治背景的中國投資者的競爭，顯然只有最無所畏懼的人才會選擇在塔吉克斯坦投資。

In theory at least, the country holds plentiful opportunities.

至少在理論上，這個國家能提供豐富的機會。

It may be poor, but it is growing fast: GDP growth has averaged 7.4 per cent over the last three years.

塔吉克斯坦或許很貧窮，但該國經濟在快速增長：過去3年其GDP年均增長率爲7.4%。

It is home to one of the largest silver deposits in the world, as well as significant gold deposits. It is one of the largest producers of antimony, a strategic minor metal, outside of China. And just last year, Total of France and CNPC of China partnered with Canadian-listed explorer Tethys Petroleum to work on exploring a natural gas deposit that one western diplomat says could be “a complete game changer”.

該國的銀儲量位居世界前茅，黃金儲量也頗爲豐富。它還是中國以外最大的銻生產國之一，銻是一種戰略性稀有金屬。去年，法國道達爾公司(Total)和中國石油天然氣集團公司(CNPC)與在加拿大上市的勘探公司克能石油(Tethys Petroleum)合作，共同堪探塔吉克斯坦的一個天然氣區塊，一位西方的外交官稱該氣田可能成爲“徹底的遊戲規則改變者”。

In a region where electricity shortages are common (ironically, including in Tajikistan itself) the country has some of the world’s potential hydroelectric power resources. According to government estimates, it has the potential to produce 527bn kilowatt hours a year – an amount equivalent to more than 100 Hoover dams – but it is using only about 5 per cent of that potential.

在一個普遍存在電力短缺問題的地區，該國擁有一些世界上潛力最大的水利資源（諷刺的是，塔吉克斯坦也是該地區缺乏電力的國家之一）。根據塔吉克斯坦政府的估算，該國有潛力每年發電5270億千瓦時，相當於100多個胡佛水壩的發電量，但該國只利用了大約5%的潛能。

And Tajikistan is also blessed with fertile agricultural land – which may offer an opportunity as Russia searches for new sources of fruit and vegetables aFTer banning European imports. Frederic Lobbe, who is opening the first branch of French supermarket chain Auchan in Dushanbe, says the move will expand trade between Tajikistan and Russia – where Auchan also has a significant presence.

塔吉克斯坦還擁有肥沃的農田——在俄羅斯禁止從歐洲進口水果蔬菜，正在尋找新供應來源之際，這可能提供一個發展機會。弗雷德裏克•洛貝(Frederic Lobbe)正在開設法國連鎖超市歐尚(Auchan)在杜尚別的第一家分店，他表示，在杜尚別開設分店將擴大塔吉克斯坦和俄羅斯之間的貿易。歐尚在俄羅斯也有規模不小的業務。

“Many of the products will come in trucks from Russia and we don’t want them to go back empty,” he says. “We want them to go back loaded with Tajik grapes, apricots, cherries and onions.”

“許多產品將通過卡車從俄羅斯運來，我們不希望這些卡車空載而歸，”他說，“我們要讓它們載着塔吉克斯坦的葡萄、杏、櫻桃和洋蔥回去。”

Finally, there are hopes that Tajikistan can reclaim its ancient Silk Road role as a major transit country, facilitating trade from China and Afghanistan to Russia and the west.

最後，人們希望，塔吉克斯坦能夠重新扮演起其在古代絲綢之路中的角色——作爲主要的中轉國，促進中國和阿富汗與俄羅斯和西方之間的貿易。

But after a week reporting in Dushanbe (including moderating a forum hosted by the FT and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development on the Tajik business climate) it is hard to have any illusions about the challenges of investing in Tajikistan.

但在杜尚別進行了一週的報道工作（包括主持一個由英國《金融時報》和歐洲復興開發銀行(European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)舉辦的關於塔吉克斯坦商業環境的論壇）後，你很難對在塔吉克斯坦進行投資的挑戰心存任何幻想。

The most significant is corruption: Tajikistan ranks 154 out of 177 countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. Much of the economy is in the hands of the president’s family: his brother-in-law controls the largest bank, the main private airline, and is linked to the aluminium factory which accounts for much of the country’s export earnings; his son heads the customs service.

最重大的問題是腐敗：透明國際編制的“清廉指數”(Corruption Perceptions Index)，塔吉克斯坦排在177個國家中的第154位。該國經濟的很大一部分領域由總統的家庭把持：總統的妻弟控制着全國最大的銀行和最大的私營航空公司，並且和佔該國出口收益很大一部分的鋁廠有關聯；總統的兒子則掌管海關部門。

The US state department criticised Tajikistan’s “egregious corruption” in a scathing report on investment in the country earlier this year. One western diplomat is blunter still: “It’s a kleptocracy.”

美國國務院在今年早些時候發佈了一份關於在塔吉克斯坦投資的報告，報告言辭尖銳，抨擊了該國“的嚴重腐敗”。一個西方外交官更是直言不諱：“這是竊國政治。”

Even if investors can navigate the political maze of the Tajik elite, however, there are other concerns. Tajikistan’s geographical location is as much a curse as a blessing. It has a long-running feud with Uzbekistan, and skirmishes this year have also created tension on the Kyrgyz border. But perhaps most significantly, it has 1400km of border with Afghanistan. As one major foreign investor in the country says: “Security is my primary concern.”

就算投資者能夠應付塔吉克斯坦精英階層所製造的政治迷局，該國還存在其他令人擔憂的問題。塔吉克斯坦的地理位置有利也有弊。該國與烏茲別克斯坦長期不睦，今年以來該國與吉爾吉斯斯坦邊境地區發生了一些小衝突，製造了緊張局勢。但最重要的或許是該國與阿富汗有長達1400公里的邊境線。正如一位主要的外國投資者所說的：“安全是我首要關注的問題。”

Electricity supply, though improved, remains erratic. According to a recent survey by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Tajik businesses suffer 11 outages per month, and losses due topower outages were equivalent to 10 per cent of annual sales.

電力供應雖然有所改善，但仍不穩定。根據歐洲復興開發銀行最近進行的一項調查，塔吉克斯坦的企業每月要遭遇11次停電，而停電造成的損失相當於年銷售額的10%。

There has been some progress: Tajikistan has introduced a “one-stop shop” that has reduced the amount of time necessary to register a new business. Last year, it joined the WTO. And it is in talks to join the EITI, a natural resources anti-corruption initiative.

塔吉克斯坦也取得了一些進步：通過引入“一站式服務”，減少了註冊新公司所需要的時間。去年，塔吉克斯坦加入了世界貿易組織(WTO)。目前，該國還在進行談判，尋求加入自然資源領域的反腐倡議《採掘業透明度行動計劃》(EITI)。

Those efforts have persuaded a few brave private-sector investors to come to Tajikistan. In addition to Total and Auchan, there is CHL Limited, an Indian family company which is due to open the Dushanbe Sheraton in November, and a group of Turkish investors who are building a Coca Cola bottling plant.

這些努力吸引一些勇敢的私營部門投資者來到塔吉克斯坦。除了道達爾和歐尚之外，印度的家族企業CHL LTD將於11月在杜尚別開一家喜來登(Sheraton)酒店，一羣土耳其投資者則正在該國興建一家可口可樂(Coca Cola)灌裝廠。

But the problems outlined above mean the vast majority of investment into Tajikistan has been limited to politically-backed Russian and Chinese companies (often state-owned), and international financial institutions such as the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

但是由於上文提到的這些問題，塔吉克斯坦的絕大部分外國投資來自得到政治支持的俄羅斯和中國企業（通常是國有企業），以及世界銀行(World Bank)、亞洲開發銀行(ADB)、歐洲復興開發銀行等國際金融機構。

As Susan Elliott, US ambassador to Dushanbe, puts it: “I would love to have more American and European investment — it is a win-win for America and Tajikistan — but I need to be honest about the investment climate. Many US and international companies who have done business in Tajikistan have faced difficulties.”

正如美國駐塔吉克斯坦大使蘇珊•埃利奧特(Susan Elliott)所說的：“我樂意在這裏看到更多來自美國和歐洲的投資，這對美國和塔吉克斯坦來說是雙贏的局面，但是我必須坦誠地說明這裏的商業環境。許多在塔吉克斯坦經營的美國企業和跨國企業都遭遇了困難。”