註定出口豐收年 中美醞釀新一場鋼鐵戰
China’s leaders want to move the world’s second-largest economy away from exports. But, for its steelmakers, this is turning out to be a bumper year.
中國領導人希望讓中國這個世界第二大經濟體擺脫出口依賴，但對中國的鋼材製造商來說，今年註定是一個出口豐收年。Exports of steel from China were a record 8.52m tonnes last month, an increase of 73 per cent from a year earlier, according to customs data.
海關數據顯示，上月中國鋼材出口達到創紀錄的852萬噸，同比增長73%。
Hit by slowing domestic demand, tighter environmental regulations and debt loads that are becoming harder to repay from domestic sales, China’s steelmakers are looking to export their way out of trouble.
由於國內需求放緩、環保法規趨嚴，加上債務負擔沉重——用國內銷售產生的收入償債越來越困難——中國鋼鐵製造商正尋求通過擴大出口擺脫困境。
But their action could trigger a backlash in the US, which recently approved antidumping measures against South Korea and other producers of steel pipes, as well as in Europe, where a steel industry case was filed in mid-May.
但這種趨勢可能引起美國和歐洲的反彈。最近美國批准了針對韓國和其他國家鋼管生產商的反傾銷措施。今年5月中旬，歐洲也提起了一樁鋼鐵貿易訴訟。The industry is “mired in overcapacity”, said China’s customs spokesman Zheng Yusheng at a briefing in Beijing during the release of export data this month. Prices for steel in some parts of China are as low as the price of cabbage.
在中國海關總署本月發佈出口數據時舉辦的北京新聞發佈會上，發言人鄭躍聲表示，國內鋼鐵行業“存在產能過剩問題”。中國一些地區的鋼材價格已跌至白菜價。Although most of China’s exports are directed towards Asia rather than Europe, there is a knock-on effect on prices and global steel trade flows.
儘管中國鋼材主要出口亞洲、而非歐洲，但會對鋼價和全球鋼鐵貿易流動帶來連鎖反應。“The US steel industry is facing a very sizeable increase in imports from around the world,” says Kevin Dempsey, senior vice-president of the American Iron and Steel Institute. “We’re seeing some signs of improvement in the US economy and it seems that all of the growth in steel is being taken from imports, including that from China.”
美國鋼鐵協會(American Iron and Steel Institute)高級副總裁凱文•鄧普西(Kevin Dempsey)表示：“美國鋼鐵業面臨的狀況時，來自世界各地的進口迅猛增長。美國經濟出現了一些改善跡象，但鋼鐵領域的所有增長似乎都來自進口，這其中就包括來自中國的進口。”The exports are driven by a state-owned industry focused on output rather than price, says Mr Dempsey. Removing government intervention in the industry “is an important goal that we should be pursuing,” he adds.
鄧普西表示，這些國家的出口是由關注產量而非價格的國有企業推動的。他補充稱，消除鋼鐵行業的政府幹預“是我們應該追求的重要目標”。“As the Chinese economy has slowed they are looking to export the steel that they can’t sell domestically and that’s disrupting markets around the world.”
“隨着中國經濟放緩，他們尋求出口國內賣不掉的鋼鐵，而這擾亂了全世界的市場。”This is being reflected in the market place. Global steel prices have fallen 7 per cent since January, according to an index run by London-based metal consultancy CRU. Falling global prices for iron ore, the main ingredient in steel, have also lowered costs for mills and allowed them to sell steel more cheaply. “Chinese exports are at record levels and global steel demand on a regional basis is nothing like record levels,” says Mike Shillaker, managing director of global steel and European miners at Credit Suisse.
這一點已經在市場上得到了體現。倫敦金屬諮詢機構CRU編制的一個指數顯示，國際鋼價自今年1月以來下跌7%。國際鐵礦石價格不斷下跌也降低了鋼鐵廠的成本，使它們能夠以更低的價格銷售鋼鐵。鐵礦石是生產鋼鐵的主要原料。瑞信(Credit Suisse)負責全球鋼鐵和歐洲礦業公司相關業務的董事總經理邁克爾•希拉剋(Michael Shillaker)表示：“中國鋼鐵出口達到創紀錄的水平，而從各地區來看，國際鋼鐵需求離歷史最高水平還遠着呢。”So far US prices have held up relatively well, but if they fall further there could be more vocal complaints about China, Mr Shillaker says. US hot rolled coil prices have fallen 5 per cent since the start of the year, while prices in Europe have dropped 13 per cent. In China they have dropped 17 per cent.
希拉剋表示，迄今美國鋼材價格相對堅挺，但如果價格進一步下滑，對中國的抱怨聲音就會增多。自今年年初以來，美國熱軋鋼卷價格下跌5%，同時歐洲價格下跌13%。中國價格下跌17%。Overall the difference between US steel prices and global prices is the widest in more than 40 months, according to data from Bloomberg.
彭博(Bloomberg)的數據顯示，整體而言，美國鋼價與國際鋼價之差是40多個月來最大的。Macquarie, the investment bank, estimates that US net steel imports rose 66 per cent year on year between January and August, and that has led the industry and unions to press the government for action against a range of countries, such as Mexico and South Korea.
投資銀行麥格理(Macquarie)估計，1-8月期間美國鋼材淨進口量同比增長66%，這導致該國鋼鐵行業和工會向政府施壓，要求對墨西哥和韓國等衆多國家採取措施。The US steel industry has long been politically sensitive and China and US have a colourful history of trade battles over the metal. But a fresh battle lies ahead. The surge in Chinese imports led to the launch this year of several US antidumping investigations, which are expected to climax next month and lead to the imposition of punitive tariffs.
美國鋼鐵業歷來具有政治敏感性，中美在歷史上圍繞鋼鐵問題爆發過多次貿易戰。如今，一場新的戰爭爆發在即。來自中國的進口飆升，促使美國在今年展開了數項反傾銷調查，預計這些調查將於下月收官，並導致美國徵收懲罰性關稅。In May the US Commerce Department issued a preliminary finding that Chinese producers were selling grain-oriented electronic steel in the US below cost. US agencies have also accused Chinese producers of dumping everything from steel wire and rods to “boltless steel shelves” on the US market.
今年5月，美國商務部發布初步調查報告稱，中國鋼鐵生產商在美國以低於成本的價格銷售取向電工鋼。美國機構還指責中國鋼材生產商在美國市場上傾銷從鋼線和鋼棒到“不鏽鋼鋼架”等各類產品。“The US steel producers are very on the ball when it comes to protecting their domestic market,” says John Kovacs, steel analyst at CRU.
CRU的鋼鐵分析師約翰•科瓦奇(John Kovacs)表示：“就保護國內市場而言，美國鋼鐵製造商非常機警。”Yet Chinese exports are hard to target because they mostly go to the southeast Asian markets or Mexico, from where some of it makes its way to the US, says Colin Hamilton, an analyst at Macquarie. The imports have also displaced steel from Japan and Korea in those regions, he says.
然而，麥格理分析師科林•漢密爾頓(Colin Hamilton)表示，很難針對中國出口鋼材採取措施，因爲它們大多出口至東南亞市場或墨西哥，然後其中部分鋼材再流向美國。他說，在那些地區，來自中國的進口也擠走了日本和韓國鋼材。There are signs that China is taking measures to deal with the overcapacity. It may withdraw the rebate tax given to exports of some steel products, according to Mr Hamilton.
有跡象顯示，中國正在採取措施解決產能過剩問題。漢密爾頓表示，中國可能取消針對某些鋼材產品實施的出口退稅。That would be a bitter pill to swallow for China’s local governments. Steel mills are required to maintain production because local authorities need to keep cash circulating amid heavy debt loads, according to Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of Beijing-based J Capital Research. The collection of VAT on the sale of the steel is their principal revenue stream, she says.
這將是中國地方政府不得不吞下的一枚苦藥。北京美奇金投資諮詢公司(J Capital Research)聯合創始人楊思安(Anne Stevenson-Yang)指出，鋼廠被要求維持生產，因爲地方政府需要在沉重的債務負擔下維持資金週轉。楊思安表示，對鋼鐵銷售徵收增值稅是他們的一大收入來源。“Production also keeps other companies in business: it doesn’t really matter if the mills don’t pay them for their coal or ore. If the mines are racking up receivables, those are assets that can finance debt at a bank.”
“鋼廠繼續生產也讓其他公司能夠維持運營：如果鋼廠購買了煤炭或鐵礦石卻沒有付款，那真的不重要。如果礦業公司有了應收賬款，就可以作爲向銀行申請債務融資的資產。”
