年新興市場出口額將增長

The dollar value of exports from emerging market countries will rise next year for the first time since 2014, helped by higher commodity prices and modestly stronger demand, it is predicted.

據預測，在大宗商品價格上漲和需求溫和上升的推動下，2017年以美元計的新興市場國家出口額將出現自2014年以來的首次增長。

The recovery may help allay some of the gloom around emerging market countries, many of which used strong export growth as a springboard for rapid economic advancement in the early years of this century, before the export boom turned to bust.

出口復甦可能在一定程度上化解人們對於新興市場國家的悲觀看法。在本世紀初的那些年，許多新興市場國家曾把出口強勁增長作爲經濟快速發展的跳板，後來出口由盛轉衰了。

“We will see a lot of headlines about [emerging market export growth] picking up in the first half of 2017,” says Bhanu Baweja, head of EM cross asset strategy at UBS, who believes EM exports will show year-on-year growth of between 8 and 13 per cent in dollar terms in the first quarter of this year, “a complete postcode away” from the negative numbers currently being reported.

“2017年上半年，我們將看到許多頭條新聞報道（新興市場出口增長）提速，”瑞銀(UBS)新興市場跨資產戰略部門主管巴努?巴韋賈(Bhanu Baweja)表示。他認爲，今年第一季度新興市場出口（以美元計）將同比增長8%至13%，“完全擺脫”目前報道的負增長。

Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, adds: “We expect that the performance of EM exports will continue to improve in 2017, with export values rising modestly in year-on-year terms.”

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)首席亞洲經濟學家馬克?威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)補充道：“我們預計，2017年新興市場出口的表現將繼續改善，出口值會同比溫和增長。”

Emerging market exports have been declining in dollar terms since October 2014, a far longer, if less extreme, losing streak than during the 2008-09 global financial crisis, as the first chart shows.

自2014年10月以來，新興市場出口額（以美元計算）一直下降，即使沒有2008年至2009年全球金融危機期間的下降幅度極端，也比當時持續的時間要長得多，如第一張圖表所示。

This slide in the dollar value of exports has entirely been a price effect, driven by lower commodity prices. In volume terms, emerging market exports have continued to rise since 2014, even if volume growth in year-on-year terms has moderated to around 2 per cent, a fraction of the double-digit rates witnessed either side of the global financial crisis, as the second chart shows.

新興市場出口額（以美元計算）下滑完全是一種價格效應，受到大宗商品價格下降的拖累。從數量上看，新興市場出口自2014年以來一直持續上升，即便同比年增長率已放緩至2%左右——遠遠低於全球金融危機前後的兩位數增長率，如第二張圖表所示。

In contrast, the average unit price of emerging market exports has been falling in year-on-year terms pretty much since mid-2012, hitting a year-on-year decline of 16.4 per cent in February 2016.

相比之下，新興市場出口的平均單價差不多自2012年中以來就一直呈同比下降趨勢，2016年2月同比降幅達到16.4%。

With the prices of most commodities having recovered somewhat since February 2016, the year-on-year fall in unit prices has slowed to around 5 per cent.

大多數大宗商品的價格自2016年2月以來有所回升，單位價格的同比降幅已收窄至約5%。

As a result, in the first 10 months of 2016, the year-on-year decline in EM exports in dollar terms was just 6.6 per cent, according to calculations by Capital Economics, a marked improvement on the 11.6 per cent contraction seen in 2015, as the third chart illustrates.

因此，根據凱投宏觀的計算，在2016年頭10個月，新興市場出口額（以美元計算）的同比降幅僅爲6.6%，較2015年11.6%的降幅有了明顯改善，如第三張圖表所示。

Mr Williams notes that early November data from the likes of Brazil, Vietnam, Taiwan and Chile suggests the picture has continued to improve since October.

威廉姆斯指出，來自巴西、越南、臺灣和智利的11月初數據表明，出口形勢自10月以來持續改善。

With Capital Economics estimating that global economic growth will edge up to 2.8 per cent this year, from 2.5 per cent in 2016, “the exports of the emerging world’s net commodity exporters should rise by about 20 per cent year-on-year in dollar terms,” he argues.

威廉姆斯指出，據凱投宏觀估計，全球經濟增長率將從2016年的2.5%上升至今年的2.8%，“新興世界的大宗商品淨出口國的出口額（以美元計算）同比增長應會達到20%左右。”

The impact will also ripple out to some net commodity importers, Mr Williams believes, with higher commodity prices likely to boost the price of resource-intensive manufactured goods such as steel, bolstering the value of exports from the like of South Korea.

威廉姆斯認爲，這些影響也將波及到一些大宗商品淨進口國，大宗商品價格上漲可能提高資源密集型製成品（如鋼鐵）的價格，提振韓國等國的出口產品價值。

Mr Baweja agrees with this conclusion, noting that both South Korea and India, another net commodity importer, are exporters of refined oil products, the dollar value of which should rise this year.

巴韋賈同意這一結論，他指出，韓國和另一個大宗商品淨進口國印度，都是成品油的出口國。以美元計算，這些成品油的價值今年應會上升。

But although he foresees a “noticeable pick-up in exports” in the first quarter of 2017, the UBS man is keen to play down any euphoria. He believes year-on-year growth will weaken and maybe even turn negative by the second half of 2017 because “volume is not picking up in a big way and the base effect [of last year’s weak commodity prices] will fall off” during the course of 2017.

但是，儘管他預計2017年第一季度的“出口會顯著回升”，這位瑞銀人士強調不要過於樂觀。他認爲，同比增長將會減弱，甚至可能在2017年下半年變爲負增長，因爲在2017年全年，“出口量不會大幅增長，而（去年大宗商品價格疲軟）的基數效應將會減弱”。

In terms of the volume of exports from emerging markets, Mr Baweja would not rule out growth of around 4-5 per cent. But while this would represent a modest improvement on recent years, growth at this rate would still be “in the bottom quartile over the long-term distribution, even maybe the second decile”, given that median growth has been about 7 per cent a year over the past 25 years.

在新興市場出口量方面，巴韋賈不排除增長約4%至5%的可能性。但是，儘管與近年來相比這將是一種溫和改善，但這一增長速度仍“處於長期分佈中的最差25%區間，甚至可能是最差20%區間”，因爲過去25年的年增長率中值約爲7%。

Mr Baweja’s extensive analysis on the changing nature of globalisation suggests the prime factor behind the weakness of global trade growth (which for a long time expanded at twice the rate of global GDP) has been a slowdown in investment.

巴韋賈對全球化不斷變化的性質的深度分析顯示，全球貿易增長疲軟背後的主要因素是投資減速。全球貿易增速曾在很長一段時間內是全球GDP增速的兩倍。

With this in mind, he does anticipate a pick-up in US investment “because it has been so weak — we don’t normally see it grow at a lower pace than consumption except in a recession”.

就這一點而言，他預計美國投資會回升，“因爲投資一直太弱——除非在經濟衰退期，我們通常不會看到投資增長低於消費增長”。

However, this may be balanced by a decline in European and Chinese investment, with the impact of the latter on global trade heightened if China was to engineer a partial switch from investment in resource-heavy construction to forms of infrastructure spending such as water purification that are not very commodity intensive.

然而，這可能被歐洲和中國的投資下滑抵消，如果中國打算在一定程度上由投資於資源耗費高的建設項目，轉向投資於水淨化等對大宗商品依賴不強的基礎設施項目，那麼中國投資對全球貿易的影響將會加大。

Mr Williams’ medium to long-term view is arguably more gloomy than that of Mr Baweja. He believes the 25-30 year period during which growth in global exports far exceeded that of global GDP, represented a “surge of globalisation that has come to an end”. In other words, the current slowdown in trade growth is structural, not cyclical.

威廉姆斯的中長期觀點可能比巴韋賈更爲悲觀。他認爲，全球出口增速在25至30年的時間裏遠高於全球GDP增速，意味着“全球化快速發展已經結束”。換句話說，目前的貿易增長放緩是結構性的，而不是週期性的。

“Through the second half of the 20th century we had this big dispersion of trade and economic activity around the world. All this specialisation meant exports rose faster than GDP,” Mr Williams says.

“整個20世紀下半葉，在世界各地，貿易和經濟增速都出現了這麼大的差異。所有的專業化分工都意味着出口增長快於GDP增長，”威廉姆斯說。

With China now not only “fully integrated”, but perhaps starting to retreat from this position as it brings more of its supply chain onshore, unless Africa can succeed in following China’s path, he adds: “I think we are going back now to a situation where we don’t think there is any particular reason for trade to grow faster than GDP.”

中國現在不僅“完全與世界一體化”，還可能正在開始退出這一狀態，把供應鏈的更多環節帶回國內，因此除非非洲能夠成功地走上中國道路，否則“我想，現在我們將回到這樣一種情形：我們認爲沒有任何特殊原因支持貿易增速超過GDP增速，”他補充說。

Other commentators, such as Raoul Leering, head of international trade analysis at ING, the Dutch financial group, fear the outlook is bleak even in the short term.

其他評論家，如荷蘭金融集團荷蘭國際集團(ING)國際貿易分析主管拉烏爾?里爾寧(Raoul Leering)擔心，即使從短期來看，前景也很暗淡。

Citing recent figures from the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Policy Analysis, that show global trade in seasonally-adjusted volume terms fell 1.1 per cent between September and October, Mr Leering suggests last year will prove to be the worst year for world trade since 2009.

里爾寧援引了荷蘭經濟政策分析局(CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)的最新數據，數據顯示，9月至10月經季節性調整的全球貿易量下降了1.1%，他表示，去年將被證明是世界貿易自2009年以來表現最糟糕的一年。

Moreover, a “turnaround in the short run is unlikely”, given China’s efforts to rebalance its economy from exports towards consumption (thereby reducing demand for imports of intermediate inputs), reinforced by “government policy to stimulate the use of domestic suppliers” and rising protectionism elsewhere, he argues.

此外，他指出，鑑於中國正在努力推動本國經濟從出口轉向消費的再平衡（從而減少對中間投入品的進口需求），再加上“中國政府鼓勵使用國內供應商的政策”和其他地區保護主義的興起，“全球貿易在短期內不太可能回暖”。

“Since these developments will not fade overnight, there is little hope for a trade revival in 2017,” says Mr Leering.

“由於這些情況不會一夜間消失，2017年貿易基本沒有希望復甦，”里爾寧說。