短線觀點 爲阿里巴巴熱潑點兒冷水
Bad news comes in threes. This week brings a Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, the first targeted long-term loans from the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Scottish referendum result first thing on Friday. But as investors brace themselves for pain, they are also hoping for the best from what may be the biggest flotation ever, that of Chinese online retailer Alibaba.
壞消息接二連三。美聯儲(Fed)將在本週三開會，歐洲央行(ECB)將在週四首次推出具有針對性的長期貸款，蘇格蘭公投結果將成爲週五一大早的重要新聞。但在投資者準備迎接痛苦之際，他們也在期待着中國在線零售商阿里巴巴(Alibaba)在美國上市帶來最好的結果。阿里巴巴的IPO可能是全球規模最大的首次公開發行。
Alibaba has what shareholders crave: a highly profitable, fast-growing business. It has no controls on management excess, but for most investors corporate governance is dull and look – there’s Jack Ma! What could possibly go wrong with non-voting, only partial ownership shares in a company controlled by a single Chinese billionaire?
阿里巴巴擁有股東們所渴望的東西：一家利潤極其豐厚且增長迅速的企業。股東無法制約管理層的過分行爲，但對於多數投資者而言，公司治理單調枯燥，再說有馬雲(Jack Ma)在啊！由一位中國億萬富翁控制的公司，其不具投票權、僅代表部分所有權的股票能出什麼問題呢？Alibaba has been priced to go and demand looks strong. Following it to market will be Germany’s Rocket Internet. It is appropriately named. The Nasdaq Internet index is now up almost a fifth from its low in May, and only 5 per cent off its March peak. The other big growth story, biotech, hit new highs this month, in spite of a warning from the Fed’s Janet Yellen that the sector looks frothy.
阿里巴巴發行價設定合理，需求看上去非常強勁。接下來上市的將是德國的Rocket Internet。該公司的名字用的很恰當。納斯達克(Nasdaq)互聯網類股現在已從5月的最低點上漲近五分之一，距離3月的最高點僅差5%。另一個重要增長板塊——生物科技股本月觸及新高，儘管美聯儲的珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)警告稱，該行業看上去有泡沫。
Biotechs are the main cause of an IPO boom in the US. If listings carry on at the pace they have been going so far, this will be the best year since 2000 both for numbers of IPOs and amounts raised (see chart).
生物科技類股是美國IPO熱潮的主要原因。如果上市繼續按照今年迄今的速度進行，從IPO數量以及融資規模來看，今年都將是自2000年以來最爲紅火的一年。Investors should be concerned. As Jay Ritter of the University of Florida pointed out long ago, good times for IPOs tend to be a bad time to invest. This makes sense, as IPO booms come when valuations are high – the best predictor there is that returns will be low in future.
投資者應感到擔心。正如佛羅里達大學(University of Florida)的傑伊•裏特(Jay Ritter)很久以前所指出的那樣，IPO的好時光往往是糟糕的投資時機。這是有道理的，因爲IPO熱潮往往出現在估值處於高位之時，恰恰說明未來回報率將會較低。Demand for dotcom and biotech stocks begets supply, as start-ups are created and listed. Eventually demand will be satiated and the boom will end. Investors’ current willingness to sacrifice quality, in biotech, and corporate governance, in dotcoms, suggests demand and price in the sectors are far above what is reasonable.
對網絡公司和生物科技類股的需求帶來了供應：初創企業得到創建和上市。最終需求將被滿足，熱潮將結束。投資者目前願意在生物科技類股的質量以及網絡公司的公司治理方面做出犧牲，這似乎表明，這些板塊股票的需求和價格遠遠超出了合理水平。
