新浪微博IPO指導價令市場趨於"冷靜"
Being disabused of fanciful dreams is often painful. So it has been for investors in Internet stocks, especially the Chinese variety.
從美夢中驚醒往往是痛苦的，而互聯網股票的投資者就是如此，尤其是中國互聯網股票的投資者。Take the initial public offering for Weibo, China's top Twitter-like microblog. The price range unveiled Friday came in well below the whimsical estimates of bullish analysts. The top of the IPO range would value the company at $3.9 billion.
以新浪微博(Weibo)首次公開募股(IPO)爲例，該公司上週五公佈的發行指導價區間遠低於一些分析師之前的大膽預期。以指導價區間的高端計算，該公司的估值爲39億美元。Some analyst estimated that Weibo was worth more like $5 to $6 billion. And a few months ago, investors seemed to agree. Amid the Twitter IPO craze, Sina's share price at one point in 2013 was up as much as 89% for the year.
一些分析師對新浪微博的估值達到50億至60億美元。幾個月前，投資者似乎對此很是認同。2013年推特(Twitter)上市引發狂潮時，新浪(Sina)股價年內漲幅一度達到89%。
But a steep correction since January has brought shares down to just above where they closed nearly a year ago, when Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba purchased an 18% stake in Weibo from parent company Sina. That deal valued Weibo at $3.3 billion.
但今年1月份以來，新浪股價出現大幅回調，目前僅略高於近一年前中國電子商務巨頭阿里巴巴(Alibaba)從新浪手中購入新浪微博18%股權時的價位。該交易對新浪微博的估值爲33億美元。The rationale for Weibo's IPO was to unlock value that wasn't reflected in parent Sina's own stock price. The modest valuation amounts to a rejection of that notion. It never made much sense, given that Sina is already listed and doesn't have many other assets weighing it down--Weibo accounts for the bulk of Sina's market cap. The IPO does give Weibo employees, compensated in stock, a way to liquidate gains.
新浪微博進行IPO的理由是要釋放在母公司新浪本身股價中沒有得到反映的價值。而阿里巴巴給出的低估值則相對於否認了這種看法的合理性。考慮到新浪已經上市，且沒有很多其他令其股價承壓（新浪微博已佔新浪市值的大部分）的資產，通過讓新浪微博上市來充分反應新浪價值的理由缺乏說服力。不過，新浪微博上市將讓該公司的員工得到股票補償，這的確提供了一種套現方式。
Sina's comedown has been harsh, driven partly by concerns that Weibo is losing users to Tencent's mobile messenger WeChat. It is also caught in a broader tech downspout: Tencent, Twitter and Facebook are all down around 20% over the past month.
新浪的股價跌幅不小，一定程度上是因爲市場擔心新浪微博的用戶正在向騰訊(Tencent)的移動短訊服務微信(WeChat)流失。而且目前科技公司的股價正出現一輪普遍下跌：騰訊、推特和Facebook的股價過去一個月都下跌了20%左右。The global tech correction is a welcome return to reality for investors who have been sitting on the sidelines, but probably not for the other Chinese Internet wunderkinder lining up to the IPO plate. Those include Alibaba, with its $15 billion offering, as well as rival , seeking $1.5 billion.
對於一直離場觀望的投資者而言，全球科技股的回調提供了一次重新評估市場現狀的機會，但對於正準備進行IPO的中國互聯網公司公司來說很可能不是好消息。這些公司中就包括阿里巴巴，該公司計劃進行規模150億美元的IPO，京東()則計劃通過IPO籌資15億美元。Weibo's relative valuation looks reasonable at $27 per user. Twitter's users are worth $105 each. Both Weibo and Twitter are losing money, but at the top of the IPO range, Weibo would be priced at 21 times 2013 sales, compared with 39 times for Twitter.
新浪微博的合理估值似乎爲每用戶27美元。推特每位用戶的價值爲105美元。新浪微博和推特都在虧錢，但按IPO指導價區間的高端計算，新浪微博的IPO價格相當於其2013年每股銷售收入的21倍，低於推特的39倍。Investors must still make assumptions about Weibo's ability to make money off its users. But among Chinese Internet plays, Weibo's deflated IPO price gives investors a more comfortable entry point.
投資者仍必須新浪微博的賺錢能力作出評估。但在中國互聯網企業中，新浪微博的低IPO價格給投資者提供了一個更爲穩妥的介入點。
