誰來解救烏克蘭：西方還是俄羅斯？

The Ukrainian crisis is quickly becoming a geostrategic conflict. The Crimean parliament's declaration of independence from Ukraine ahead of the March 16 referendum indicates Crimea may possibly join Russia. As Russian President Vladimir Putin maneuvers to restore Russia's right to behave with a superpower's impunity-particularly in its own backyard-the West pushes back.

But economic forces also have shaped this confrontation, especially Ukraine's record as the world's worst performing industrial economy over the last 20 years.

It was popular discontent with this disastrous performance that fomented the recent dissent. This, in turn, triggered a bloody response from ousted Crimean President Viktor Yanukovych. His response consolidated the opposition-and ultimately cost Yanukovych his job.

Beyond this week's political and military maneuvers, the outstanding question is: Who will bail out the Ukrainian economy? Russia, or the EU and the United States? A bailout will be the price of drawing Ukraine into one of the two trading systems on offer.

Stated simply, Ukraine is the economic equivalent of a failed state. After gaining independence in 1991, the country moved briefly to liberalize its economy along the same lines as most of Eastern and Central Europe.

However, Ukraine soon jettisoned its reforms in favor of the state-oligarch model, which was also evolving in Russia. Some 20 years later, Ukraine's GDP has shrunk 30 percent.

Even Russia's sorry economy is 20 percent larger than it was in 1991. And Poland's economy, which looked much like Ukraine's in 1991, has grown 130 percent over the same period.

Ukraine's economic performance has been so terrible and for so long that its sovereign debt issues are now considered the equivalent of junk bonds. Even before the crisis, Ukraine's credit rating was worse than Greece's. And it was no better than that of Argentina, a global financial pariah for its mismanaged debt defaults and summary expropriations of foreign-owned companies.

Ukraine's debts will soon be due, with some $15 billion in sovereign bonds maturing this year and another $15 billion in 2015. With a current account deficit equal to 8 percent of its GDP, Ukraine cannot pay off and refinance those debts without large-scale aid-$20 billion to $25 billion-and affiliating itself with a larger trading system.

An economic and trade alliance with Russia would deliver the bailout, but with little prospects of improving the underlying economy.

The European Union and the United States (through the International Monetary Fund) also are prepared to provide the bailout if the Ukrainian government accepts far-reaching economic reforms. The EU-US/IMF reforms should lead to better economic times down the road.

But they also would mean more short-term hardships for ordinary Ukrainians. That's why Yanukovych sided with Putin.

With a new, pro-Western government in charge in Kiev, Ukraine's fate may well lie in the hands of Europe and the United States. Their choice is simple to state, if difficult to execute: Do they put sufficient economic and diplomatic pressure on Putin, to convince him to pocket his own bailout-and let the West pick up the pieces?

The author is co-founder and chairman of Sonecon, LLC, a private company that advises US and foreign businesses, governments and non-profit organizations.烏克蘭危機正迅速成爲一個地緣戰略衝突。克里米亞脫離烏克蘭的獨立宣言是要表明克里米亞真有可能入俄。俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京竭力恢復俄羅斯超級大國免責權——尤其在自家後院——西方國家則迎頭反擊。

烏克蘭的經濟狀況也引發了這一衝突，烏克蘭過去20年淪爲世界上最落後的工業化國家。

正是民衆對經濟糟糕狀況的不滿激起了最近這場抗議活動。反過來，這又引發時任總統維克多·亞努科維奇的殘酷鎮壓，反對派於是衆志成城最終把亞努科維奇趕下了臺。

除了經濟軍事較量，最突出的問題是：誰將解救烏克蘭經濟？俄羅斯、歐盟還是美國？解救烏克蘭的代價便是把烏克蘭帶入其中一個現有的貿易體系。

簡單地說，烏克蘭經濟上等同於失敗的國家。1991年獨立後，該國迅速實行經濟自由化，但很快放棄了改革，轉投國家寡頭政治模式，而當時這也在俄羅斯盛行。大約20年後，烏克蘭GDP縮水30%。

即便糟糕的俄羅斯經濟也比1991年增長了20%。與此同時，1991年酷似烏克蘭狀況的波蘭經濟同期增長130%。

如今，烏克蘭國債已被視爲垃圾債券。即使在危機之前，烏克蘭信貸評級比希臘還要低，比阿根廷也好不到哪裏去。阿根廷由於管理不當，拖欠債務並沒收外資企業，淪爲全球金融棄兒。

烏克蘭150多億美元國債將在今年到期，還有150億美元2015年到期。目前烏克蘭經常賬戶赤字相當於GDP的8%。如果沒有鉅額援助-200億美元到250億美元-或不加入到一個更大的貿易體系中，烏克蘭不可能籌資償還債務。

成爲俄羅斯的經濟貿易盟友會保證得到救助，但經濟根本改善的希望渺茫。

如果烏克蘭政府願意接受廣泛深度的經濟改革，歐盟和美國（通過國際貨幣基金組織）也願意提供救助金。這應該會帶來更好的經濟發展。

但與西方聯合也意味着普通烏克蘭人會陷入更多的短期困境。這也是爲什麼亞努科維奇站在普京一邊。

隨着基輔親西方政府執政，烏克蘭的命運很有可能掌握在歐洲和美國的手中。他們的選擇簡單但難以實施：用足夠的經濟外交壓力迫使普京收回自己的救助資金，而讓西方國家來收拾殘局？

作者羅伯特·夏皮羅是Sonecon董事長。Sonecon是一傢俬人公司，主要向美國和外國企業，政府和非盈利性組着提供諮詢服務。