可穿戴式設備雖有戲 健康腕帶追蹤時代或將衰落大綱

The news broke on a recent Friday night: Nike Fires Majority of FuelBand Team, Will Stop Making Wearable Hardware. It was a shock to just about anyone who had bought, worked on, wrote about, or invested in the white-hot category called "wearables."
不久前的一個週五晚上爆出了一個重大新聞：耐克公司（Nike）炒掉了FuelBand團隊的大部分成員，將停止生產可穿戴設備。對買過、用過、報道過或投資過所謂“可穿戴設備”這款炙手可熱產品的人來說，這個消息都不啻于晴天霹靂。

Hailed as the next big platform in computing, wearable "smart" devices like fitness tracking bracelets, clip-on heart monitors, Google Glass, smartwatches, and even smart wigs (yes, smart wigs) suddenly looked a lot less interesting.
這樣一來，一度被捧爲下一代計算大平臺的可穿戴“智能”設備，如健康追蹤腕帶、卡扣式心臟監護儀、谷歌眼鏡、智能手錶，甚至還有智能假髮（沒錯，就是智能假髮）突然之間就魅力大減。

If Nike (NKE), which had sold an estimated $33 million worth of FuelBand bracelets in 2013, employing 200 people and even running an accelerator program around the device, was no longer interested, did this spell disaster for the category? What does Nike know that the rest of us didn't?
2013年，耐克公司售出了約3300萬美元的FuelBand腕帶，爲此它招了200名員工，甚至圍繞這個設備開展了一個加速計劃。如果它都對可穿戴設備沒興趣了，這是不是意味着這種設備氣數將盡了？耐克又是怎麼知道我們沒興趣了呢？

Since the news, the top wearable makers have openly touted the future of their business. This week at the TechCrunch Disrupt conference in New York, Hosain Rahman, CEO of Jawbone, said his company will expand the amount of data it tracks and services around it. Jawbone's UP band accounts for 19% of the fitness tracking device market. Meanwhile Fitbit, which dominates the category with 68% market share, made a short statement to CNET that it's been doing this for seven years, guys. Fitbit, with products like the Flex, One, and Zip, remains confident, "despite some of the recent sensationalized headlines."
這個消息曝出後，一些可穿戴設備頂級製造商就開始公開造勢，大肆渲染自己業務的美好未來。本週在紐約舉行的TechCrunch Disrupt大會上，Jawbone公司首席執行官侯賽因o拉赫曼稱，公司將擴展它追蹤的數據量，增加服務種類。Jawbone的UP腕帶現在已佔健康追蹤市場19%的份額。同時，以68%的市場份額雄踞市場老大的Fitbit公司則對科技資訊網（CNET）做了一個簡短聲明，稱自己這麼做早已有七年之久了。憑藉Flex、One和Zip這些產品，“儘管最近冒出了幾條聳人聽聞的頭條新聞，”Fitbit照樣自信滿滿。

Even Nike has clarified the initial report, saying it is not giving up on all of fitness tracking, only the hardware part. Nike will stop producing FuelBands itself, but it will continue to build software and fitness tracking apps for phones, smartwatches, and whatever other form factor smart devices take.
耐克也站出來澄清最初的報道，稱不是要放棄所有的健康追蹤業務，只是放棄硬件罷了。耐克將不再生產FuelBand，但還會繼續爲智能手機、智能手錶以及各種智能設備打造軟件和健康追蹤應用。

Nonetheless, it's clear the fitness tracking and wearables need to evolve beyond their initial offerings. Many of the fitness trackers in their current form are large, unattractive, uncomfortable bracelets. But an even bigger issue is what these devices do. As my colleague JP Mangalindan wrote earlier this week, his quest to become a quant junkie failed when the available options required him to use disparate systems that didn't talk to each other:
不過，現有的健康追蹤和可穿戴設備顯然需要改進。現在很多健康追蹤器都是又大又難看、戴起來也不舒服的腕帶。而更大的問題在於它們的實際功能。正如我的同事JPo曼格林丹本週初所寫的那樣，他想變成數字達人的願望落了空，因爲這些設備上的可用選項要求他使用完全不同、彼此無法兼容的系統：

One day, I just stopped using everything. I had invested hundreds of dollars into hardware and software and cobbled them together so I could to get a holistic picture of my day. But the process felt too complicated for its own good -- a wristband for sleeping, another for the daytime. An app for eating, and then another running. Why couldn't there be one piece of hardware and software to rule them all?
有一天，我開始停止使用任何設備。本來我花了好幾百美元買硬件買軟件，再把它們生拉硬湊到一起，以爲這樣就能全面瞭解我每天的健康信息了。但實現這個目標的過程感覺真是太費事了——睡覺需要一種腕帶，白天需要另外一種，吃飯需要一種應用，跑步又得用別的。爲什麼就不能有種軟硬件一體的設備來執行所有這些任務呢？

Beyond that, merely knowing how many steps you've taken each day isn't all that compelling to a large, mainstream audience. It's why one-third of consumers have abandoned their devices, according to a report by Endeavor Partners. Industry insiders say the number of inactive fitness tracking devices is likely much higher than that.
除了這一點，對絕大多數人來說，光知道自己每天走了多少步其實沒什麼吸引力。諮詢公司Endeavor Partners的一份報告稱，這也是爲什麼有三分之一的消費者沒再用這類設備。而業內人士稱，實際停用的健康追蹤設備數量很可能比這多得多。

For wearables and fitness trackers to become a permanent part of our lives, the devices must become "need to have," not "nice to have." The only way to do that is to offer better functionality. I spoke with Sonny Vu, CEO of Misfit, about the future of the category. His company was called Misfit Wearables until recently, when it dropped the word "wearables" from its name.
可穿戴設備和健康追蹤器要想成爲我們生活中不可或缺的一部分，它們就必須成爲“必不可少的”、而不是“有了也不錯”的時髦玩意。要實現這個目標，唯一的辦法是具備更好的功能。我曾和Misfit公司的首席執行官桑尼o烏探討過這種產品今後的發展。他的公司直到最近還叫Misfit Wearables，然後纔去掉wearables這個詞。

Vu said he expects fitness trackers to be a tiny part of the overall wearables industry. They'll be like iPods and GPS trackers -- useful to some, but no longer top sellers, and mostly replaced by smartphone apps. Fitness trackers will likely be killed by the smartwatch, Vu says.
烏表示，他認爲健康追蹤設備今後只會佔可穿戴設備市場的一小部分。它們將像iPod和GPS追蹤器一樣——對有些人有用，但再也不會暢銷熱賣，而且它們中的大多數都將被智能手機應用所取代。他說，它們很可能被智能手錶給幹掉。

His company produced a fitness tracking wearable device for practice, even as he knows the category will quickly peak and decline. "We did it because we're being opportunistic," he says. "This is where things are going now, and we're exercising our muscles as an organization to build and ship a product."
就算他明知健康追蹤可穿戴設備市場會很快大起大落，他們公司還是投產了，目的主要是爲了練手。他說：“我們這麼做主要是爲了抓住機會。它是現在的發展潮流，我們作爲一家公司生產它並投放市場可以小試身手。”

The next step in the evolution of wearable devices will require a more compelling use case. It will need to pass the "turn around test," he says. That means, would you turn around for it if you were halfway to work and realized you'd forgotten it? Most people would turn around for their phone, keys, or wallet. But they wouldn't turn around for their activity monitors.
可穿戴設備要進一步發展需要有更具吸引力的使用案例。他說，它必須經過“轉身測驗”的考驗。這就是說，如果人們在上班路上忘了帶它，他們會不會轉身回家去拿？大多數人會轉身回家拿手機、鑰匙和錢包。但他們不會爲了這些活動監控設備轉身回去。

"Fitness tracking is just not a compelling use case," Vu says. "We makers haven't been able to make it sufficiently compelling. It doesn't pass the turn around test. It doesn't even come close."
烏說：“健康追蹤還不是太有吸引力的使用案例。我們這些廠家還沒法讓它具有足夠的吸引力，它沒法通過轉身測驗，甚至連接近這個水平都做不到。”

Vu is already scheming up ideas to make wearable devices more compelling.
不過他已經在策劃讓可穿戴設備更有吸引力的創意了。

One way to pass the turn around test is with "persistent identity." Better than fingerprint recognition, wearable devices would use a person's heart waves to identify them. This proposition becomes compelling, "if it identifies you, opens your car, turns on your lights and you can use it to pay, all with your physiological signature," he says, "and once your take it off of your body, it is no longer a secure device."
要通過轉身測驗的一個辦法是讓它擁有“固定身份”。比指紋識別更好的一點是，可穿戴設備可以用人們的心電圖來識別用戶。他說：“如果它能用你的生理信號認出你，打開車門，開燈，還能付賬，一旦離開你的身體，它就不再安全好用，”那這種功能將會很有吸引力。

Vu said this would be similar to Disney's MagicBands, the bracelets that allow families visiting a Disney (DIS) theme park to check in, unlock their hotel rooms, enter parks, pay for goods, and connect to their photos online, all by scanning a bracelet. MagicBands essentially replace keys and wallets within Disney's properties. "That is something I could get behind if they could make it a little nicer and it worked outside of the Magic Kingdom and in the rest of the world," Vu says.
烏說這將會和迪斯尼公司（Disney）的魔力腕帶（Magicband）很像。這條腕帶只要掃描一下，就能讓一家人去迪斯尼主題公園玩時辦理入住、打開旅館房門、進入公園、買東西、上網查看照片。實際上在迪斯尼所屬的領地裏，這條魔力腕帶就取代了鑰匙和錢包。烏稱：“如果迪斯尼公司能把它做得更漂亮些，它還能在魔法王國以外的其他地方用上的話，我一定會力挺它。”

That's one direction the hot category of wearable devices is likely to go. But for now, Vu is sticking with fitness trackers. Launched in the fourth quarter of 2013, Misfit sold 200,000 devices, a number that's increasing each quarter. He expects that, like the market for iPods and GPS trackers, fitness trackers like his will decline, and some hardware makers will follow Nike's footsteps, focusing on smartwatch software over hardware.
這就是現在大熱的可穿戴設備一個可能的發展方向。但現在烏還得繼續做健康追蹤設備。Misfit的這個設備2013年第四季度首發，現在已經賣出了20萬個，而且每個季度的銷量都在增長。他預計，和iPod及GPS追蹤器的市場一樣，像他這種健康追蹤器的銷售也會逐漸下降，一些硬件廠商也會步耐克的後塵，最終致力開發智能手錶的軟件而不是硬件。

The era of fitness tracking devices might be waning. But for wearables, it's still early days.
健康追蹤設備的時代可能將日漸衰落，但對可穿戴設備來說，日子纔剛開始。