全球经济再平衡面临严峻考验

The rebalancing of global current accounts has been hailed as a major positive development since the financial crisis. But it is in the years ahead that the adjustment will face its most difficult test.

全球经常账户再平衡，一直被视为自此次金融危机以来的一项重要且积极进展。但未来几年，才是这种调整面临最严峻考验的时候。

The slumps in demand that slashed developed world deficits are now giving way to recovery. In their absence, world leaders need to find new ways to correct lingering excess surpluses in countries like Germany and China and lift export restrictions in deficit nations such as the US.

需求滑坡使发达国家赤字大幅下降，但现在这种状况正让位于经济复苏。全球领导人需要找到新的方法，修正德国和中国等国家长期存在的过度盈余，并解除美国等赤字国家的出口限制。

The primary cause of the 2002-08 era of exploding imbalances was currency engineering. The largest surpluses emerged in countries with strong export industries that pegged their currencies to, or kept them competitive with, the US dollar. The lasting symbol of this period is the amassed foreign exchange reserves in China, the Middle East, and parts of the emerging world.

2002年至2008年失衡急剧扩大的主要原因是“汇率工程”(currency engineering)。盈余最大的国家，是拥有强大的出口行业，而且本币盯住美元、或相对于美元保持竞争力的国家。这一时期一个长期存在的标志是中国、中东和新兴世界部分国家的大规模外汇储备。

It is commonly assumed there has been a major improvement in imbalances since 2008, and implicitly in global financial stability. China’s current account surplus with the rest of the world has fallen from close to $500bn in 2008 to $200bn this year, while the US deficit has more than halved from its peak.

人们通常认为，自2008年以来，失衡状况出现巨大改善，全球金融稳定也有大幅好转。中国相对于全球其他国家的经常账户盈余，从2008年的近5000亿美元降至今年的2000亿美元，而美国的赤字从峰值水平下降逾一半。

Demand driven rebalancing

由需求驱动的再平衡

Yet rather than corrections in exchange rates and reserve levels, the 2008-13 era of correcting imbalances has instead come about largely due to adjustments in domestic demand. Take the apparent correction in current account deficits. These would not have come about but for a collapse in imports. In Spain, imports have fallen 10 per cent from the peak in 2007, while in Greece they have dropped 40 per cent.

然而，2008年至2013年失衡得到修正的原因，并非汇率和外汇储备水平的修正，而是在很大程度上源于国内需求的调整。以经常账户赤字的明显修正为例，要不是进口大幅下挫，这些修正是不会出现的。在西班牙，进口从2007年的峰值水平下滑10%，而在希腊，进口下降了40%。

This is true not only for the eurozone. There is a clear link, since the financial crisis, between changes in domestic spending and changes in current account positions.

不仅欧元区如此。自此次金融危机以来，国内支出变动与经常账户状况变动之间有明显的相关性。

Broadly, countries that have suffered recessions have seen their deficits reduce (or surpluses increase), while those experiencing higher growth have seen the opposite. One cannot see a similar broad link between currency movements and trade balance changes.

大体而言，遭遇衰退的国家赤字缩小（或者盈余扩大），而那些增长较快的国家则相反。人们无法看到汇率走势与贸易差额变动之间有着类似的广泛相关性。

Given this dynamic, we must remain cautious. Imbalances may have been created by currency engineering but have apparently only been “solved” by recession. This means, instead of a single imbalance solved, we may now have two imbalances simply offsetting one another – one in currencies, and one in domestic demand.

鉴于这种状况，我们必须保持谨慎。失衡可能是由“汇率工程”引发的，但显然只是通过衰退得到了“解决”。这意味着，现在我们不是解决了一项失衡，而是可能面临两种互相抵消的失衡，一个是汇率失衡，一个是内需失衡。

It would therefore be unwise to declare victory over the era of imbalances until we have evidence that individual countries’ competitiveness and domestic demand are well aligned, and we begin to see foreign exchange accumulation slowing or stopping, indicating more fairly valued currencies.

因此，草率宣布我们已战胜失衡时代将是不明智的，除非有证据表明单个国家的竞争力和国内需求很好地匹配起来，同时我们也开始看到外汇累积放缓或停止（这表明货币估值更为合理）。

Keep reform agenda rolling

继续推进改革议程

Three global policy choices will be important.

未来，3项全球性政策的选择至关重要。

First, the US would be well served if it lifted its ban on exports of crude oil. The country is likely to attain an energy surplus, due to the exploitation of shale reserves. The implication, a weaker global oil price, would serve to correct one of the world’s remaining imbalances (the Middle East surplus), and would be more helpful than concentrating supply in the US, reducing prices further and essentially subsidising energy-intensive US industries.

首先，如果美国解除其对原油出口的禁令，美国将因此获得好处。由于页岩储备的开采，美国可能会实现能源盈余。其影响是，全球油价下跌，这将有利于修正全球还存在的另一项失衡——中东盈余。同时，比起将能源供应集中留在美国、进一步降低价格，从而实际上对美国能源密集型行业形成补贴，解除原油出口禁令对美国更有好处。

Second, the reforms announced at the Third Plenum in China will help ensure factor prices, including the currency, are more market-determined. This should eventually ensure China no longer needs to intervene in currency markets and accumulate foreign reserves. Already, deputy central bank governor Yi Gang has commented that it is no longer in China’s interest to increase reserves. China needs to ensure these measures are implemented.

其次，中国共产党十八届三中全会宣布的改革，将有利于确保包括货币在内的要素价格更多地由市场决定。这最终应能确保中国不再需要干预外汇市场并累积外汇储备。中国央行副行长易纲已表示，扩大外汇储备不再符合中国的利益。中国需要确保这些措施得以施行。

Third, Germany’s current account surplus is now the world’s largest. While a recently published Bundesbank paper concluded that current account imbalances are more persistent under a fixed exchange rate regime, this is little excuse for a slowdown in reforms. Even though the eurozone has entered a recovery, Germany still needs to increase its domestic demand to match its external competitiveness, just as the periphery has been forced to reduce domestic demand.

第三，德国的经常账户盈余现在为全球规模最大。德国央行(Bundesbank)最近发表的一篇论文做出结论称，在固定汇率制度下，经常账户失衡更为持久，但这并非放慢改革的借口。尽管欧元区已步入复苏，德国仍需要扩大其内需，以匹配其外部竞争力，正如外围国家被迫削减内需。

Imbalances make the world a more vulnerable place. Large imbalances heighten the risk of “sudden stops” of funding that we have seen in both the eurozone and in emerging markets in recent years.

失衡让这个世界变得更为脆弱。巨额失衡加大了融资“骤停”的风险，最近几年我们在欧元区和新兴市场都看到了这种骤停。

In the future, advancements in connectivity and manufacturing technology may make imbalances less likely to arise. But for today, it will be down to policy to help make the world a less vulnerable place.

将来，世界各国连通性的加强和制造业技术的进步可能会让失衡不那么可能出现。但现在，要帮助世界变得不那么脆弱，还是得靠政策。