亞投行熱 美國的噩耗還是福音

America’s “international credibility and influence” is under threat as China sets up rivals to the International Monetary Fund and World Bank and draws the support of long-time US allies, the US Treasury Secretary warned on Tuesday.

美國財政部長傑克•盧(Jack Lew)週二警告稱，在中國設立與國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和世界銀行(World Bank)爭風頭的機構、並吸引美國長期盟友的支援之際，美國的“國際可信度和影響力”正受到威脅。

Jack Lew said that the US would lose some of its ability to mould international economic rules if Republicans in Congress did not drop their opposition to reforms of the IMF that would give China and other emerging economies a greater voice in the fund.

盧表示，如果國會中的共和黨人不放棄反對IMF改革、不打算讓中國和其他新興經濟體在該機構擁有更大發言權，美國塑造國際經濟規則的能力將有所減弱。

“Our international credibility and influence are being threatened,” he said. “To preserve our leadership role at the IMF, it is essential that these reforms be approved. The alternative will be a loss of US influence and our ability to shape international norms and practices.”

“我們的國際可信度和影響力正受到威脅。”他說，“為了保持我們在IMF的領導力，批准這些改革是至關重要的。不然的話，美國將在一定程度上失去影響力，失去塑造國際規範和慣例的能力。”

Mr Lew’s warning came as a growing number of Washington’s European allies, led by the UK, have signed on to become founding members of the new, China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank despite vigorous US lobbying to stop them joining.

盧發出這一警告之際，在英國帶頭之下，美國在歐洲的越來越多的盟國申請加入中國主導的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank，簡稱：亞投行），以成為這家新機構的創始成員國，儘管美國大力遊說阻止它們這麼做。

The decision by the Europeans to join the new bank has left the Obama administration scrambling for a new approach towards the AIIB, which US officials fear could end up being used as a tool of Chinese foreign policy in the region.

歐洲國家紛紛決定加入亞投行，使奧巴馬(Obama)政府忙於尋找一種對待該行的新姿態。美國官員擔心，該行最終可能被用作中國在亞洲的對外政策工具。

As well as the UK, France, Germany and Italy, which have all indicated they will become founding members of the AIIB, Australia and South Korea are now thought likely to join. The initial British move to sign up for the bank last week brought accusations from Washington about London’s “constant accommodation” of China.

繼英國之後，法國、德國和義大利都已表示，他們將成為亞投行的創始成員國。澳大利亞和韓國現在被認為很可能加入。上週英國最先作出加入亞投行的決定，此舉招致華盛頓方面指責英方“不斷遷就”中國。

The dispute over the AIIB is part of what the US sees as a broader strategic contest with China for control of the rule-setting bodies for the international economy.

圍繞亞投行產生的紛爭，在美國眼裡是其與中國全面戰略較量的一部分，目的是控制那些為國際經濟制定規則的機構。

Beyond its efforts to defend the power of the IMF and the World Bank, the US is negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal with Japan and 10 other economies which pointedly does not include China.

除了努力捍衛IMF和世行的影響力，美國正同日本以及另外10個經濟體談判《跨太平洋夥伴關係》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP）協定，該協定刻意把中國擋在門外。

Speaking at a congressional hearing on Tuesday, Mr Lew said the US was not opposed to the creation of the AIIB and recognised the need for greater infrastructure spending in Asia.

盧週二在國會聽證會上發言時表示，美國並不反對建立亞投行，而且認識到亞洲有必要加大基礎設施建設支出。

But he said the US was concerned that the new bank would not live up to “the highest global standards” for governance or lending and urged those now joining the bank to consider that.

但他表示，美國擔心這家新的銀行在治理或放貸方面達不到“全球最高標準”，並敦促那些正在加入該行的國家考慮這一點。

“Anyone joining needs to ask those questions at the outset,” he said.

“決定加入的任何國家，都需要在一開始就問這些問題，”他表示。

Eswar Prasad, a former head of the IMF’s China department, said the Obama administration’s inability to get Congress to back the 2010 IMF reforms that it had pushed for was steadily eroding its credibility with allies.

前IMF中國部負責人埃斯瓦爾•普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示，奧巴馬政府未能爭取到國會支援其在2010年推動的IMF改革，這正在日益削弱美國在盟友心中的可信度。

“When the US exercises leadership but then fails to deliver at the finish line that does lead to a marginalisation of US influence,” he said. “The fact that the old players like the UK and Germany are falling over each other to prostrate themselves before China is certainly a sign of the new world order.”

“美國行使領導力，但隨後卻在終點線上不了了之，這的確會導致美國的影響力被邊緣化。”他表示，“英國和德國等老牌國家如今競相對中國頂禮膜拜，這個事實無疑是世界新秩序的一個標誌。”

Daniel Blumenthal, director of Asia studies at the American Enterprise Institute, said that the administration had been giving too much attention to the AIIB, which was a much less important part of the region’s emerging economic architecture than the TPP trade deal.

美國企業研究所(American Enterprise Institute)亞洲研究部主任卜大年(Daniel Blumenthal)表示，奧巴馬政府對亞投行關注過頭了，作為亞洲正在形成的經濟架構的組成部分，該行的重要性遠遠不如TPP貿易協定。

“The administration should stop its pattern of lecturing our closest allies and instead finish the TPP which offers a real economic vision for Asia,” he said. “The AIIB is just a stagnating China’s way of recycling dollars.”

“奧巴馬政府應停止對我們最密切的盟友說教，並抓緊完成TPP談判，後者為亞洲提供了一個真正的經濟願景。”他說，“亞投行只不過是正陷入停滯的中國迴圈利用資金的一種方式。”

Matthew Goodman, a former senior White House official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that China would probably end up with some form of veto power at the new bank, given that it will be the main shareholder.

華盛頓戰略與國際問題研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)學者、前白宮高階官員馬修•古德曼(Matthew Goodman)表示，中國最終很可能在亞投行擁有某種形式的否決權，因為中國將是主要股東。

However, the new European members would likely influence the way the bank is run over issues such as procurement rules, the social and environmental standards attached to new loans and the ability of borrowers to repay loans — all of which would make it harder for China to use the AIIB as a tool of economic diplomacy.

然而，新加入的來自歐洲的成員國將有望在採購規則、附加於新貸款的社會和環保標準、以及借款人償貸能力等問題上影響該行的運作方式——這一切將使中國更難把亞投行用作經濟外交工具。

“The US has lost a round in this match, but the irony is that the entry of the Europeans is likely to push the bank in a direction that is more favourable to US interests,” he said.

“美國在這場比賽中輸掉了一局，但諷刺的是，歐洲人的加入很可能推動該行轉向更有利於美國利益的方向，”他說。

Ted Truman, a former assistant Treasury secretary for international affairs, said the Obama administration had made a tactical error in not trying to join the AIIB. “If you want to influence that [the bank’s lending standards] you should be inside the tent rather than outside the tent,” Mr Truman said. However, the US Congress would block any US effort to join.

前美國財政部負責國際事務的助理部長泰德•杜魯門(Ted Truman)表示，奧巴馬政府沒有嘗試加入亞投行是一個戰術性錯誤。“如果你想影響（該行的放貸標準），你應該在帳篷裡面，而不是在帳篷外面，”杜魯門說。然而，美國國會將阻止美國加入亞投行的任何努力。

“The US to some degree is withdrawing from the world and it’s true that our role in the world is going to continue to shrink and it’s difficult for us to accept it,” he said.

“美國在一定程度上正在退出世界舞臺，的確，我們在世界上發揮的作用將繼續減弱，我們很難接受這一點，”他說。