住在紐約的機遇與問題

Behind the facade of many a New York City apartment building is the dissonant sound of residents complaining. The gripes that make their way to the inbox of my Ask Real Estate column offer a glimpse into how residents cope with the myriad irritations that come with living in cramped and costly homes. They include the co-op shareholder horrified by a neighbor’s rats’ nest; the parents whose building has barred them from using a stroller in the elevator; and the renter whose kitchen cabinets fell from the walls.

在紐約市許多公寓樓的大門背後，充斥着居民們不協調的抱怨聲。從我的“房地產答疑”(Ask Real Estate)專欄所收到的抱怨信中，我們可以一窺居民們是如何應對生活在擁擠、昂貴的住房中的種種不順心的。比方說，有個合作公寓的股東被鄰居家的老鼠窩嚇壞了；有一對父母被禁止將嬰兒車推進樓內的電梯；有個租戶廚房裏的櫥櫃從牆壁上掉了下來。

In short, some New Yorkers dislike their neighbors almost as much as they do their landlords. Co-op and condominium boards beware: You do not fare much better.

有些紐約人就像討厭房東一樣討厭鄰居。合作公寓和共管公寓的管委會要小心了：你們也好不到哪去。

The questions New Yorkers ask the column are dictated not only by their individual circumstances but also by the larger issues of the day, like rising housing costs, gentrification and shoddy construction. In the end, 2014 was a year of things going up — home prices, rents and, above all, buildings, with 16,700 units approved for construction through October, according to the Real Estate Board of New York.

紐約人向專欄提出的問題，不僅取決於他們的個人情況，還取決於當今的重大問題，比如住房成本上升、士紳化、豆腐渣工程。最終，2014年成爲了一個一切都在增長的年份，增長的包括房價、租金，以及最重要的——樓盤數量。根據紐約房地產委員會(Real Estate Board of New York)的數據，10月批准建設的單元達到了16700套。

So what forces will shape the questions asked next year? It depends on who (and where) you are. While buyers should brace for another year of high-stakes bidding wars, residents of the city’s far-flung neighborhoods (I’m talking about you, Grand Concourse) should be ready for an onslaught of prospective residents seeking bargains — bargains, that is, relative to the gilded ZIP codes that are out of the reach of most mortals.

那麼，何種力量將決定大衆明年提出的問題？這取決於你的身份（和居住地）。雖然購房者在新的一年裏還將迎來高風險的競購戰，但是紐約市的偏遠社區（說的就是你，大廣場區[Grand Concourse]）將會有大量尋求廉價住宅的潛在居民——所謂廉價，也只是針對那些令多數普通人可望而不可及的黃金地段，相對而言的。

For the New Yorkers who have turned their apartments into bed-and-breakfasts, the battle over illegal inns could reach a fever pitch. On top of it all, Mayor Bill de Blasio’s 10-year affordable housing plan will take shape just as legislation in Albany threatens to strain the pocketbooks of renters. These are among the game-changers looming as we ring in the New Year.

對於那些已把自家公寓改造成B&B旅店的紐約人，圍繞非法住宿的論戰可能會趨於白熱化。而在這一切之上，市長比爾·白思豪(Bill de Blasio)的十年保障性住房計劃將初具規模；與此同時，本次奧爾巴尼會議(Albany)的立法將給租房者的錢包造成重負。隨着我們邁向新的一年，這類改變遊戲規則的因素也正在日益迫近。

Neighborhoods

居民社區

This year, the average sales price for an apartment in New York City topped $1 million, a milestone with far-reaching implications. As the city’s population soars, prices and buildings are rising in neighborhoods that missed the last housing boom.

今年，紐約市公寓的平均售價突破了100萬美元（約合人民幣623萬元），這是一個影響深遠的里程碑。隨着城市人口的激增，錯過了上一輪樓市繁榮期的社區，都見證了房價和樓盤數量的增長。

“When I started in this business, Brooklyn was the alternative. Now it is a choice,” said Diane M. Ramirez, the chief executive of Halstead Property. “I see Queens becoming that way. The Bronx is not that far down the line.”

“當我剛開始創業的時候，布魯克林還是個替代選項；而現在，它已經成爲一個優選地段了，”霍爾斯特德房地產公司(Halstead Property)的首席執行官黛安娜·M·拉米雷斯(Diane M. Ramirez)說，“我看到皇后區(Queens)正在朝這個方向發展,布朗克斯(Bronx)也不遠了。”

Of the 6,527 new rentals scheduled to hit the market in Brooklyn next year, 1,442 are in Bedford-Stuyvesant, Bushwick and Clinton Hill, all considered off the beaten path not that long ago, according to data provided by Citi Habitats.

根據花旗居屋(Citi Habitats)提供的數據，在布魯克林擬於明年投放市場的6527套新出租屋中，有1442套分佈在貝德福德-斯圖文森(Bedford-Stuyvesant)、布什維克(Bushwick)和克林頓山(Clinton Hill)。就在不久前，這些社區都還被視爲不熱門的地區。

For newcomers, these changes provide fresh housing options. But for residents, they can spell displacement. The same is true for shops such as De Robertis Pasticceria and Caffe in the East Village, which just closed after a 110-year run. And next year, the Union Square Cafe will likely conclude its 30 years in Union Square.

對於新來的買家，這些變化能夠給他們帶來新的住房選擇。但是對於既有居民而言，這可能意味着他們必須搬走。這點同樣適用於De Robertis Pasticceria and Caffe等商鋪。這家咖啡館已經在東村(East Village)持續經營了110個年頭，最近剛剛關門歇業。到明年，聯合廣場咖啡廳(Union Square Cafe)也可能會結束其在聯合廣場30年的運營。

“New Yorkers have been waking up and realizing this long period of prosperity has wreaked a little bit of havoc on things that we think of as classic New York,” said Simeon Bankoff, the executive director of the Historic Districts Council, noting that 2015 will mark the 50th anniversary of the New York City landmarks preservation law. “Things we always thought were going to be there are just closing left and right.”

“紐約人正逐漸意識到，這一漫長的繁榮期已對我們眼中的經典紐約市容造成了破壞，”歷史街區保護委員會(Historic Districts Council)的執行董事西蒙·班考夫(Simon Bankoff)說，他同時指出，2015年將是紐約市通過《地標建築保護法》的50週年。“環顧左右，那些總被我們認爲是一成不變的東西，卻都在紛紛關門閉戶。”

Next year, the mayor’s affordable housing plan, which calls for building or preserving 200,000 units of affordable housing over the next decade, will begin to take shape. It hinges on a policy that requires developers to build affordable housing in exchange for being allowed to construct taller and denser buildings in neighborhoods rezoned by the city. Developers and housing advocates alike are waiting to see what it will look like once the administration adds muscle and flesh to the bones of the proposal.

明年，市長的保障性住房計劃將初具規模，該計劃要求在未來十年裏，修建或保留20萬套保障性住房。這一目標的實現取決於一項政策，它要求開發商通過修建保障性住房，來換取在市政府重新規劃的社區修建更高、更密集樓盤的資格。至於政府將會如何在這項提案的雛形上添磚加瓦，開發商和保障房倡導者們都在拭目以待。

“Our goal is to produce as many units as we can and, at the same time, make sure that we do it in a way that maintains and enhances the health of neighborhoods,” said Carl Weisbrod, the director of the Department of City Planning.

“我們的目標是修建儘可能多的單元，同時確保這樣做能夠維持和提高居民社區的健康運轉。”城市規劃部(Department of City Planning)部長卡爾·魏斯布羅德(Carl Weisbrod)說。

East New York in Brooklyn will be the test case when the Department of City Planning presents initial recommendations early next year. After that, the rezoning process could begin for the neighborhood, among the city’s poorest. A proposal for west Flushing in Queens is next.

當城市規劃部門明年初（2015年——譯註）提出初步的建議方案時，布魯克林的東紐約(East New York)地區將被列爲試點。隨後，重新區劃進程就將在該處全市最窮社區之一內展開。而緊隨其後的，將是針對皇后區的西法拉盛(Flushing)的提案。

“We need to do what the mayor wants everybody to do, and that is build more housing,” said Steven Spinola, the president of the Real Estate Board of New York. However, “if the numbers don’t work, if the rent that is coming in is less than the cost of maintaining the building, then you are not going to do it.”

“我們需要做市長希望大家做的事——建造更多住房，”紐約房地產委員會主席史蒂芬·斯皮諾拉(Steven Spinola)說，但是，“如果數據上不可行，如果收回來的租金低於建築的維護成本，那你就不會這麼做了。”

Housing advocates worry that if rezoning is not done carefully, communities could quickly gentrify. “Look at what happened in Williamsburg,” said Harvey Epstein, the director of the community development project at the Urban Justice Center, referring to price escalations. “I don’t know why it wouldn’t happen in East New York or the Bronx or in Flushing.”

保障房倡導者們則擔心，如果重新區劃做得不認真，那麼居民社區或將迅速士紳化。“看看威廉斯堡(Williamsburg)發生了什麼吧，”城市正義中心(Urban Justice Center)的社區開發項目負責人哈維·艾普斯坦(Harvey Epstein)說，他指的是房價上漲，“我不明白，它怎麼就不可能發生在東紐約、布朗克斯或者法拉盛呢。”

Buyers and Sellers

買家和賣家

All-cash buyers. Skittish lenders. Skyrocketing prices. Anemic listings. These realities haunt buyers, turning the house hunt into a demoralizing slog. Unfortunately, buyers will probably have to soldier through another year of a market that favors sellers.

現金全款購房者。難以取悅的貸款人。暴漲的價格。匱乏的掛牌信息。這些現實，都困擾着購房者，使找房子的過程讓人倍受打擊。不幸的是，在新的一年，購房者們可能依舊需要在賣方市場裏打拼。

“Our population and employment is at an all-time high and growing. That puts significant pressure on rents and prices,” said Mark Willis, the executive director of the New York University Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy. “There is no reason now to think that these trends are likely to change.”

“我們的人口和就業正處於歷史高位，並在不斷增長。這給租金和房價施加了很大壓力，”紐約大學富曼房地產及城市政策中心(Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy of New York University)的主任馬克·威利斯(Mark Willis)說，“現在沒有理由認爲這些趨勢可能發生改變。”

It is not all bad news for buyers: Prices will still head north next year, but the pace will likely slow from a sprint to a saunter. “Prices can’t just keep going up, up, up on this steep climb,” said Pamela Liebman, the chief executive officer of Corcoran. “Buyers get a little fatigued.”

對於購房者，也不都是壞消息：房價明年（2015年——譯註）仍將上漲，但步伐可能會從飆漲趨於平緩。“房價不會一味地陡然上漲，”柯克蘭集團(Corcoran)的首席執行官帕梅拉·利伯曼(Pamela Liebman)說，“買家都有點疲勞了。”

Buyers looking for new construction will have more options next year, as the number of new condos hitting the market in Manhattan, Brooklyn and Long Island City, Queens, is expected to more than double to 8,366 from 3,444 in 2014, according to data provided by Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group.

明年，尋找新樓盤的買家將會有更多的選擇。根據科克倫陽光營銷集團(Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group)提供的數據，明年（2015年——譯註）曼哈頓、布魯克林和皇后區長島市(Long Island City)新上市的共管公寓預計將增加一倍以上，從2014年的3444套增加到8366套。

But a quick look at the changing skyline betrays a frustrating reality: Those shiny new towers have failed to deliver the type of housing most New Yorkers can afford. “There is a disconnect between what we’re building and what we need to build,” said Jonathan J. Miller, the president of the appraisal firm Miller Samuel. “2015 is going to be more of that.”

但是，只要快速掃一眼日益變化的天際線，我們就能發現一個令人沮喪的現實：那些光鮮亮麗的新大廈，未能提供大部分紐約人買得起的房型。“我們正在修建的房屋，跟我們需要修建的房屋之間存在着脫節，”房地產估值公司米勒·塞繆爾(Miller Samuel)的總裁喬納森·J·米勒表示，“2015年，這一現象會更加明顯。”

Homeowners in neighborhoods like the Grand Concourse in the Bronx or Elmhurst in Queens could enjoy new attention from buyers eager to find the next untapped market. “When have you heard talk about Kingsbridge in the Bronx?” asked Ms. Ramirez of Halstead. “The people who are smart are getting out there and buying it up at wonderful prices.”

布朗克斯大廣場區或皇后區埃爾姆赫斯特(Elmhurst)的業主們，即將迎來急於尋找下一個未開發市場的買家們的新關注。“你什麼時候聽到別人談論過布朗克斯的金斯布里奇(Kingsbridge)？”霍爾斯特德房地產公司的拉米雷斯問，“聰明人正在涌向那裏，以實惠的價格買下房子。”

Renters

出租房

Here is a silver lining: Market-rate rents are so high that they probably will not climb much higher next year. “The good news is rents aren’t rising anymore,” Mr. Miller said. “The bad news is they are probably not going to fall.”

下面這條消息，可以給人帶來一線希望：市價房的租金太高了，它們明年可能漲不了多少。“好消息是，租金不會再漲了，”米勒說，“壞消息是，它們很可能也不會下降。”

New construction will provide luxury options for renters with deep pockets, mostly in the boroughs outside Manhattan. In Brooklyn, 6,527 new rental units are expected to hit the rental market next year, nearly twice the 3,802 units anticipated for Manhattan, according to Citi Habitats.

新建的房產將給那些財大氣粗的租房者提供奢華的居住選擇，它們大多位於曼哈頓以外的行政區。根據花旗居屋的數據，在布魯克林，預計有6527個新的出租單元，將於明年（2015年——譯註）投放租賃市場，比曼哈頓3802個單元多出近一倍。

One such development is 60 Water Street in Dumbo, a 290-unit rental with a 24-hour concierge and a roof deck offering Manhattan views. Leasing begins next month, with rent for a two-bedroom starting at a jaw-dropping $6,018 a month. “People want that condo-like living, even though they’re renting and not owning,” said Jodi Ann Stasse, the managing director of new developments for Citi Habitats.

這類開發項目之一，是鄧波區(Dumbo)的沃特街(Water Street)60號，一個包含290個單元的出租樓盤，帶有24小時門房服務和一個可坐擁曼哈頓景觀的屋頂平臺。房屋租賃將於下個月開始，兩居室的每月房租起價達到了令人瞠目結舌的6018美元（約合人民幣3.7萬元）。“人們想要體驗住在共管公寓的生活，即使他們是租房而不是買房。”花旗居屋負責新開發項目的董事總經理喬迪·安·斯塔斯(Jodi Ann Stasse)說。

Meanwhile, New Yorkers living in the city’s nearly one million rent-stabilized apartments should brace for a fight in Albany in June, when the rent-stabilization law expires. Housing advocates hope to see a reversal of a rule that allows landlords to deregulate vacant units if the rent reaches $2,500 a month.

與此同時，居住在近百萬套租金管制型公寓裏的紐約人應該準備好，於明年（2015年——譯註）6月在奧爾巴尼放手一搏，那個時候，租金管制法就要到期了。保障房的倡導者們希望看到這樣一項規定的撤銷——該規定允許業主在租金達到每月2500美元（約合人民幣1.6萬元）的情況下，取消對空置單元的租金管制。

Over the past 20 years, at least 133,000 units in the city have gone market rate because of this rule, according to the Rent Guidelines Board. If the trend continues, rent stabilization could be further weakened, undermining Mayor de Blasio’s efforts to preserve affordable housing, say supporters of the policy.

根據租金指導委員會(Rent Guidelines Board)的數據，在過去20年裏，紐約市至少有13.3萬個單元因這項規定而變成市價房。政策的支持者表示，如果這一趨勢持續下去，租金管制政策會被進一步削弱，從而對市長保留保障房的努力構成阻礙。

“This is our make or break moment for the tenant movement,” said Ilana Maier, the program director for the Metropolitan Council on Housing. “If we aren’t able to drastically strengthen the rules now, none of this will matter in 10 years.”

“這是我們租戶運動生死攸關的時刻，”大都會住宅委員會(Metropolitan Council on Housing)的項目總監伊拉娜·邁爾(Ilana Maier)說，“如果我們現在不能大舉強化規定，那麼這些政策在十年內都發揮不了作用。”

But with a Republican-controlled State Senate, opponents of rent stabilization doubt that 2015 will be a watershed year for the tenants’ movement. Sherwin Belkin, a lawyer who represents landlords, said: “Landlords view this as an opportunity to make some much-needed changes to rent regulation.”

但是，租金穩定政策的反對者懷疑，在共和黨人把持州議會的情況下，2015年將不會是租戶運動的分水嶺。舍溫·貝爾金(Sherwin Belkin)是一名代表業主利益的律師，他說：“業主們認爲可以藉此機會對租金管制政策做一些亟需的改變。”

One suggested change: require rent-stabilized tenants to verify their income.

其中一項被提議的改變是：要求租金管制型房屋的租戶提供收入證明。

Airbnb Showdown

Airbnb的緊要關頭

In New York it is illegal for anyone to rent out a room in an apartment in a multifamily building for less than 30 days if a tenant is not present. Yet almost weekly, someone writes to Ask Real Estate seeking advice on how to skirt the rules. What if I swap apartments? What if nothing is in writing?

在紐約，任何人不得將多戶建築中的一套沒有租戶的公寓單間以短於30天的租期出租，這是非法的。然而，幾乎每週都有人寫信給“房地產答疑”專欄，諮詢如何繞開這些規定。如果我交換公寓呢？如果沒有書面形式的約定呢？

A reckoning could come next year as the state and city attempt a crackdown on renegade hoteliers while the online company Airbnb lobbies for a change to the law. “You are going to see an increased push to regulate this,” said Samuel J. Himmelstein, a lawyer who represents tenants.

由於州政府和市政府試圖打擊不法的旅館經營者，明年可能會出臺一項規定。而與此同時，房產租賃網站Airbnb將遊說政府改變法規。“你會看到，規範這一市場的要求會變得更加迫切。”代表租戶的律師塞繆爾·J·希莫爾斯泰因(Samuel J. Himmelstein)說。

Making Airbnb go away might not be so easy. A recent Quinnipiac poll found that 56 percent of the responders thought New Yorkers should be allowed to rent rooms out to strangers. “We don’t want to turn into hotels, but at the same time people want to rent out their apartments sometimes,” said Paul R. Gottsegen, the president of Halstead Management Company, which manages 250 residential properties in the city.

要讓Airbnb退市，可能沒那麼容易。最近，昆尼皮亞克大學(Quinnipiac)開展的一項民意調查表明，56％的受訪者認爲，應該允許紐約人將房間租給陌生人。“我們不想把房子變成旅館，但是與此同時，人們有時會想把自己的公寓租出去。”霍爾斯特德管理公司(Halstead Management Company)的總裁保羅·R·戈特塞根(Paul R. Gottsegen)說。該公司打理着紐約市250處住宅物業。

Condos and co-ops have been laying down the law, writing warning memos and fining wayward residents. For renters, breaking the rules could jeopardize a lease. Condos are tightening security, asking doormen to scrutinize visitors and requiring residents to sign authorization forms for guests. The practice has also raised insurance concerns.

共管公寓和合作公寓一直在嚴令整頓，編寫警告備忘錄，對違規居民罰款。對於租房者來說，打破規則就可能會危及租約。共管公寓正在加強安保措施，要求門衛仔細觀察來訪者，同時要求居民爲來訪的客人簽署授權表格。這類操作還引起了保險界的關注。

“What happens if one of these Airbnb guests starts a fire?” asked Phyllis H. Weisberg, chairwoman of the Cooperative and Condominium Law Committee at the New York City Bar Association. “Who’s paying for that?”

“萬一有個通過Airbnb投宿的客人放火了怎麼辦？”紐約市律師協會(New York City Bar Association)合作公寓和共管公寓法律委員會(Cooperative and Condominium Law Committee)的會長菲利絲·H·韋斯伯格(Phyllis H. Weisberg)問，“誰來賠償損失？”

Nevertheless, as New Yorkers grow accustomed to a sharing economy, buildings might ultimately have to embrace it.

不過，隨着紐約人日益習慣於共享經濟，各處樓盤可能最終也不得不接受它。

“Airbnb is here to stay,” Mr. Gottsegen said. “Instead of fighting it, we should wrap our arms around it and make it better.”

“Airbnb將生存下去，”戈特塞根表示，“與其抗拒它，我們不如擁抱它、改善它。”

Co-ops and Condos

合作公寓和共管公寓

From maintenance to flip taxes, condo and co-op owners often complain of boards bleeding them dry. Unfortunately, the cost of running a building will not get any cheaper anytime soon.

從物業費到倒賣稅，共管公寓和合作公寓的業主經常抱怨，管委會要將他們榨乾了。不幸的是，運營建築的成本在短時期內不會下降分毫。

Over the next few years, large residential buildings will have to comply with Local Law 87, which requires them to audit energy usage and keep systems running at peak efficiency. Residential buildings are the city’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 37 percent of the total. “The one hot-button topic is energy. How do buildings become more energy efficient?” said Dan Wurtzel, the president of FirstService Residential New York, which manages more than 500 properties. “If a third of your operating budget is related to energy and you can now reduce that cost, you can take pressure off the need for a maintenance increase.”

在接下來幾年裏，大型住宅樓盤必須遵守第87號本地法(Local Law 87)——該法要求樓盤審覈能源使用量，並保持系統以最高效率運行。住宅樓是紐約市最大的溫室氣體排放源，其排放量佔總量的37%。“能源是一大熱門話題。樓盤怎樣提高能源效率？”管理着超過500處房產的FirstService Residential New York的總裁丹·沃澤爾(Dan Wurtzel)說，“如果運營預算的三分之一來自能源耗費，而現在你可以降低這塊成本，那麼上漲維護費的壓力就減輕了。”

Complying with the law may prove challenging, even if improvements ultimately reduce long-term costs. In addition, 2015 is the deadline for buildings to convert from No. 6 heating oil to No. 4 oil, which is less polluting.

即便這些改進最終會降低長期成本，遵守這條法律可能還是頗具挑戰性。此外，2015年是各樓盤停用6號取暖油、改用污染更少的4號油的最後期限。

“Who’s going to pay for that?” said Marc J. Luxemburg, the president of the Council of New York Cooperatives and Condominiums. “This has a real-world cost for many buildings.”

“誰來支付由此產生的成本呢？”紐約合作公寓和共管公寓委員會(Council of New York Cooperatives and Condominiums)的主席馬克·J·盧森堡(Marc J. Luxemburg)表示，“這會給許多樓盤帶來真真切切的成本。”

Although various public incentives exist, many come in the form of tax breaks, low-interest loans or rebates. So a building might have to levy an assessment or raise maintenance to cover initial costs. “You run into the problem of nobody giving you the money upfront,” Mr. Luxemburg said.

雖然也有各種各樣的政策鼓勵，但許多會採取減免稅務、低息貸款或退稅的形式。因此，樓盤運營方或許將不得不從估價中徵稅，或增加維護費，以此打平樓盤運營的初始成本。“你會遇到沒人爲你提供前期資金的問題，”盧森堡說。

These are just some of the issues that will face New Yorkers next year. And then there’s the new drum set the neighbor’s son received for Christmas ...

這些，都只是紐約人2015年將會遇到的部分問題。而且，鄰居家的兒子在聖誕節收到了新的爵士鼓，你又免不了要頭疼了……