數據顯示 "剩男"危機論還爲時尚早
The number of 30-plus bachelors, or "leftover men", in China's rural areas is astonishing. Some demographers estimate there may be 30 million, even 50 million of them thanks to the widening sex ratio at birth. But such estimation, to some extent, overstates the reality of rural residents' marital status.
在中國農村地區，三十歲以上的單身男性（俗稱“剩男”）的數量非常驚人。一些人口統計學家預測，由於男女比例失調日益嚴重，這一數字將會達到三千萬，甚至五千萬。但是這種對於農村地區人民的婚姻狀況的推斷在某種程度上有些言過其實。The gender imbalance may indicate the number of unmarried men, not necessarily "leftover men", is higher than women. But since a husband can be five years older than his wife, and vice-versa, the age gap is not a major concern in marriage.
男女比例失調也許可以預測未婚男子的數量（不一定都是“剩男”）比女性高。但是這沒有考慮到年齡差距在婚姻中並不是主要影響因素，例如丈夫可能會比妻子年長五歲，反之亦然。The gender imbalance at birth started widening in 1995 and peaked about 10 years later. In other words, most of those born during this period are less than 20 years old－and hence not old enough for marriage－and will reach the "leftover men's threshold" after only about 10 years.
男女出生率失衡是在1995年開始擴大的，並在十年後達到頂峯。也就是說，這段時間出生的人現在還不滿二十歲，尚未到達結婚年齡，而要等到十年後才能討論是否爲“剩男”。
Therefore, the nearly 20 million men in rural areas who remain unmarried despite crossing their 30s have little to do with the gender imbalance at birth. The problems they face in getting a wife, too, vary from region to region.
因此，現在造成近二百萬的農村大齡未婚男子出現的原因跟男女比例失衡關係不大。他們面臨的找媳婦問題是因地而異的。
One thing is certain, the causes behind the serious problem of "leftover men" are complicated and abnormal. About 30 percent of them couldn't get married at the socially accepted marriageable age because of physiological or psychological defects, with another 30 percent having failed because they kept waiting for their "dream partners".
有一點可以確定的是，引發如此嚴重“剩男危機”的原因是複雜和不尋常的。他們當中，有30%的人沒能在正常年齡結婚是因爲存在生理或心理方面的缺陷，另外還有30%的人是在等待自己的夢中情人的出現。Only 10 percent or so of the "leftover men" failed to find a wife because of their "background"－which mostly happened before the mid-1980s for certain historical reasons. The highest percentage of "leftover men"－almost 60 percent－couldn't get married because they couldn't afford to pay the dowry for a bride.
只有大約10%的男性是由於八十年代中期的歷史因素未能結婚的。而由於擔負不起高額的嫁妝而不能結婚的“剩男”最多，佔總數的60%。The gender imbalance at birth has played a limited role in the "leftover men" problem. They, however, could trigger an even greater crisis－a situation in which more men in their 30s or 40s remain unmarried in the next decade or so.
男女出生比例失衡在“剩男”這一問題當中作用不是很大，但是，它卻可以加重這一現象，從而引發更嚴重的危機。在接下的十幾年甚至更長的時間裏，將會出現越來越多的30歲到40歲的未婚男性。
