年西方亂局背後 一場"白色"危機(下)

THE EFFECT OF RAPID CHANGE

飛速變化的效應

Social scientists, after crunching data from both sides of the Atlantic, have discovered something surprising: it’s not the amount of racial or ethnic diversity in a community that predicts white resentment and support of anti-immigrant policies, but the pace of change.

社會科學家們分析了來自大西洋兩岸的數據，發現了一些驚人的事情：在社區內，引起白人不滿，並令他們支持反移民政策的，並不是多樣化民族或種族的人數，而是變化的速度。

Denmark, for instance, is 88 percent white Danish today — hardly a majority in jeopardy. But a generation ago, in 1980, it was 97 percent white. The anti-immigrant Danish People’s Party is now the second-largest party in the Danish Parliament. In Germany, where the foreign-born population shot up by approximately 75 percent between 2011 and 2015, the anti-immigrant, populist Alternative for Germany party is now drawing record support.

以丹麥爲例，如今，88%的丹麥人口都是白人——這樣的多數地位很難動搖。但在1980年，也就是上一代人的時候，丹麥有97%的人口是白人。反移民的丹麥人民黨(Danish People’s Party)現在是丹麥議會中的第二大黨。在德國，從2011年到2015年間，非本土出生人口激增了大約75%，反移民的民粹政黨德國另類選擇黨(Alternative for Germany)如今獲得了破紀錄的支持率。

Britain saw a 66 percent increase in its foreign-born population between 2004 and 2014. Voters who chose “leave” in the recent referendum overwhelmingly cited immigration as their main concern.

在英國，從2004年到2014年，非本土出生的人口增長了66%。最近的全民公投中，投票選擇“離開”的人大都說移民問題是自己最大的顧慮。

Professor Kaufmann and a colleague, Gareth Harris, found that white Britons who lived in areas that are rapidly diversifying became more likely to vote for the right-wing British National Party. Daniel Hopkins, a professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, found a similar pattern of ethnic change leading to anti-immigrant politics in the United States.

考夫曼和同事加雷思•哈里斯(Gareth Harris)發現，居住在那些人種快速多樣化地域的英國白人更傾向於投給右翼的英國國家黨(British National Party)。賓夕法尼亞大學政治學教授丹尼爾•霍普金斯(Daniel Hopkins)在美國發現了相似的民族變化導致反移民政策的規律。

Immigrant populations in Arkansas, North Carolina and Tennessee have more than tripled since 1990, noted Lee Drutman, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, in an analysis for Vox. Anxiety over those changes may explain why the Republican Party became so much more focused on limiting immigration over that period — and why white voters in those states overwhelmingly support Mr. Trump.

新美國基金會(New America Foundation)高級研究員李•德魯特曼(Lee Drutman)在一份給Vox的分析文章中指出，在阿肯色州、北卡羅萊納州和田納西州，移民人口是1990年的三倍以上。圍繞這些變化產生的焦慮或許可以解釋共和黨爲什麼在這個階段更關注限制移民問題，還有這些州的白人投票者們何以壓倒性地支持特朗普。

THE WHITENESS TABOO

“白”之禁忌

For decades, the language of white identity has only existed in the context of white supremacy. When that became taboo, it left white identity politics without a vocabulary.

幾十年來，白人身份認同話語只存在於白人至上論的語境之中。當白人至上論成爲禁忌，白人身份政治就陷入一種失語狀態。

If you are a working-class white person and you fear that the new, cosmopolitan world will destroy or diminish an identity you cherish, you have no culturally acceptable way to articulate what you perceive as a crisis.

如果你是一個工薪階層的白人，擔心這個充滿國際性的新世界會摧毀或貶抑你所珍視的身份認同，那麼你並沒有一種在文化上能夠被接受的方式，去闡明自己內心感受到的危機。

Some of these people have instead reached for issues that feel close to their concerns: trade, crime, the war on drugs, controlling the borders, fear of Islamist terrorism. All are significant in their own right, and create very real fears for many people, but they have also become a means to have a public conversation about what society’s changes mean for white majorities.

這些人當中，有些人會藉助另一些問題表達他們的憂慮：貿易、犯罪、毒品戰爭、邊境控制、對伊斯蘭恐怖主義的恐懼。誠然，這些問題都很重要，也爲許多人帶來了真切的恐懼，但是它們已經變成一種方式，公衆藉助這些問題來討論社會變革對於佔多數的白人羣體的影響。

Professor Ivarsflaten cited the U.K. Independence Party, whose official platform focused on Brexit but whose pitch to voters emphasized immigrants’ effects on the economy and culture, as an example of an effective hybrid populist pitch.

伊法斯夫拉騰以英國獨立黨(U.K. Independence Party)爲例，它的官方平臺力主脫歐，但是面向選民的宣傳中又強調移民對經濟與文化的影響，她說這是一種混合了務實與民粹的論調。

The approach has in some cases moved from the political fringes into the mainstream. Some leaders from Britain’s center-right, governing Conservative Party, for example, helped push a British exit, and since the referendum the new Conservative prime minister, Theresa May, has signaled sympathy with white identity politics.

在許多情況下，這種做法已經漸漸從政界邊緣進入主流。比如說，英國的執政黨保守黨立場是中間偏右，它曾經推進英國脫歐，公投之後，新的保守黨首相特麗莎•梅(Theresa May)表現出對白人身份政治的同情。

Mrs. May’s government proposed a rule that would publicly shame employers who hired foreign workers. And her first major speech was full of barbs directed against multiculturalism, including a jab against people who claimed to be “citizens of the world,” whom she called “citizens of nowhere.”

梅的政府提出了一條規則，以公開羞辱僱傭外國工人的僱主。她的第一次重要講話中充滿了對多元文化主義的尖銳諷刺，比如諷刺那些自稱“世界公民”的人其實“哪兒的公民也不是”。

But the struggle for white identity is not just a political problem; it is about the “deep story” of feeling stuck while others move forward.

但是白人身份認同的鬥爭不僅僅是個政治問題，它也是一個“深藏的”故事，一個看到別人都在向前，自己卻感覺困在原地的故事。

There will not likely be a return to the whiteness of social dominance and exclusive national identity. Immigration cannot be halted without damaging Western nations’ economies; immigrants who have already arrived cannot be expelled en masse without causing social and moral damage. And the other groups who seem to be “cutting in line” are in fact getting a chance at progress that was long denied them.

迴歸白人佔統治地位的社會，實施排外的國民身份認同，這樣的事情不太可能發生。移民一旦停止，肯定會損害西方國家的經濟；如果大舉驅逐已經到達的移民，肯定會引起社會與道德上的損失。那些看似來“插隊”的人羣其實是在尋覓一個機會，加入到一個長久以來把他們拒之門外的進程中來。

Western whites have a place within their nations’ new, broader national identities. But unless they accept it, the crisis of whiteness seems likely to continue.

在西方國家更新、更廣泛的國民身份認同裏，白人們也有自己的一席之地。但是除非他們接受這一點，“白”的危機仍會持續存在下去。