經濟廣角:雷曼、AIG股票變賭場

Traders Seek Fortune In AIG Stock
American International Group Inc., a symbol of the financial crisis, has morphed into a playground for speculators.

At a traders meeting before the market opened on Monday, Scott Redler, chief strategist at hedge fund T3 Capital Management, noted that AIG's stock hadn't moved much for days and was ripe for a breakout. Whether it headed up or down, he said, the traders should be ready.

AIG shares, trading below $40 at the opening bell, climbed within 15 minutes to $41, then above $42. 'This thing's going to $45,' T3 President Marc Sperling said, watching his six computer monitors. 'It's on every trader's radar screen across the country.'

AIG shares rose 21% for the day, and T3's traders did 'great,' said Mr. Redler. Since Aug. 5, the shares -- deemed highly risky by most analysts -- have more than tripled. 'The stock paid the traders' bills all summer,' Mr. Redler said.

A year after the government sought to avert a market meltdown by rescuing some of the country's biggest financial firms, speculative traders are feasting on these companies' remains. Shares of two government wards, mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, bounced between about 60 cents and $2 in August. Shares of Lehman Brothers, left to fail by the government and currently in bankruptcy proceedings, rose from five cents to 20 cents in recent weeks.

AIG, arguably, has been the biggest casino of all. In the past seven weeks, its common shares have careened between $13 and $55, surging past $54 on Tuesday before closing at $45.80.

The extraordinary price action is a dramatic display of an unintended consequence of the U.S. bailout of AIG. Last Sept. 16, the government propped up the faltering company by trading $85 billion in loans for an 80% stake in AIG in the form of preferred shares, which don't trade on the market. It allowed the other 20% of the company's equity -- its millions of common shares -- to continue to trade publicly.

Some analysts declared the deeply indebted company's common shares basically dead money. Many buy-and-hold investors bailed out. That has left AIG's common shares -- $6.2 billion worth, as of Tuesday -- trading most actively between short-term traders, who buy and sell based on market momentum and bet against each other in risky options trades. Often they use borrowed funds, amplifying their gains and losses.

Dominating the recent move in AIG stock were professional day traders like those at T3. But Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. also owned AIG shares during the run-up, according to people familiar with the matter. Fund managers including AllianceBernstein LP and Davis Selected Advisers also held the shares during a portion of the run-up, according to fund documents.

Taxpayers aren't profiting, or taking a hit, from the movement in AIG's common stock. That's because the securities the government owns, preferred shares, aren't traded. The government will recoup most of its investment if AIG can repay its debts through asset sales or profits. While a run-up in common shares would typically reflect an increase in expectations of a company's overall value, in this case, AIG has to repay roughly $80 billion before holders of common stock can expect to see their share of profits.

Alex Herrera, head of Soldier Capital LLC, a 26-member day-trading firm in Ramsey, N.J., has been among those buying and selling AIG. A former floor trader on the New York Stock Exchange, Mr. Herrera says he often trades blocks of 100,000 shares, using funds he borrows through the firm to make bets of as much as 15 times the size of his portfolio.

On some days during the past month, AIG trading volume topped 130 million shares -- nearly equaling the total number of existing common shares -- up from less than 10 million a day in early August. Trading by firms such as Soldier Capital is 'one of the reasons you're seeing all this volume,' says Mr. Herrera, 40 years old.

堪稱金融危機標誌的美國國際集團(American International Group Inc., AIG)已經變成了投機者的樂園。

對衝基金T3 Capital Management的首席策略師瑞德勒(Scott Redler)在週一股市開盤前的交易員會議上說，AIG的股票多日未見波動，已到了大幅漲落的時候。無論是漲是跌，交易員們都應當有所準備。

T3總裁斯佩林(Marc Sperling)看着自己面前的6個電腦顯示器說，這支股票會漲到45美元，美國各地的交易員都在密切注意它。

瑞德勒說，AIG股票當天上漲21%，T3的交易員收穫頗豐。8月5日以來，被大多數分析師認爲風險很高的AIG股票上漲了兩倍以上。瑞德勒說，交易員們整個夏天的收入全靠它了。

美國政府爲避免市場崩潰而對一些規模最大的金融機構展開救助已有一年，如今投機者正借這些公司實現暴利。今年8月，受政府保護的兩家抵押貸款巨頭房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)的股價從0.6美元左右反彈至2美元。沒有得到政府救助而崩潰的雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)目前正處於破產程序，其股價近幾周從0.05美元上漲至0.2美元。

AIG堪稱其中最大的賭場。過去7周，AIG普通股在13美元-55美元之間波動，週二飆升54美元上方，隨後收於45.8美元。

這種不同尋常的價格行爲戲劇性地展示了美國政府救助AIG的一個意外結果。去年9月16日，美國政府以850億美元貸款換取了AIG80%的股權，以優先股的形式持有，不上市交易，以此支撐起這個搖搖欲墜的公司。政府允許AIG其餘的20%資產（數百萬股普通股）繼續公開交易。

一些分析師宣稱負債累累的AIG的普通股基本上已經不值錢了。許多采用買進並持有策略的投資者拋售該股。這使得AIG普通股（截止週二價值62億美元）在短線交易員之間交易最爲活躍，這些交易員根據市場趨勢買賣股票，相互做高風險的期權交易。他們通常會用借貸的資金交易，從而放大收益或損失。

像T3的交易員這類的專業短線交易員最近主導了AIG股價的波動。但知情人士說，高盛集團(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)和摩根大通(an Chase & Co.)在上漲階段也持有AIG股票。AllianceBernstein LP和Davis Selected Advisers等基金管理機構的文件顯示，這些機構在上漲過程中也一度持有AIG股票。

AIG普通股的漲跌對納稅人沒有影響。因爲政府所持有的優先股不能交易。政府只有在AIG通過出售資產或實現盈利償還債務時收回大部分投資。雖然普通股上漲通常反映出一家公司的整體價值預期增長，但對於AIG來說，它必須歸還大約800億美元，然後普通股股東才能分享利潤。

位於新澤西州的短線交易公司Soldier Capital LLC有26名成員，其負責人赫雷拉(Alex Herrera)一直在買賣AIG股票。曾爲紐約證券交易所場內交易員的赫雷拉說，他通過公司借入交易資金，通常以10萬股爲單位進行交易，做出15倍於自己投資組合規模的押注。

過去一個月中的幾天，AIG股票交易量一度超過1.3億股，幾乎相當於現有普通股的總量，而8月初該股日交易量不到1,000萬股。40歲的赫雷拉說，Soldier Capital這類公司的交易操作是該股交易量如此巨大的一個原因。