疫情將使美國GDP未來十年縮水近8萬億美元
Fallout from the coronavirus pandemic will shrink the size of the US economy by roughly $8 trillion over the next decade, according to new projections released by the Congressional Budget Office on Monday.
美國國會預算辦公室本週一（6月1日）發佈的最新預測顯示，新冠肺炎疫情將使美國經濟產出在未來10年縮水近8萬億美元（約合人民幣56.8萬億元）。In a letter to US lawmakers, the CBO said the US economy will grow by $7.9 trillion less from 2020 to 2030 than it had projected in January. That amounts to a 3 percent decline in US gross domestic product compared to its initial estimate.
美國國會預算辦公室在寫給美國議員的信中表示，從2020年到2030年，美國經濟產出將較1月份時的預期減少7.9萬億美元。這相當於美國國內生產總值較最初估計下降3%。The stark illustration of the pandemic's potential economic impact comes one week after White House officials confirmed they would not release their own updated projections this summer in their annual "mid-session" budget review.
在美國國會預算辦公室公佈新冠肺炎疫情對經濟的潛在影響一週前，白宮官員證實，他們不會在今年夏天的年度中期預算審查中公佈對美國經濟的最新預測。
The pandemic will hamper US economic growth by reducing the amount of consumer spending and closing numerous businesses, the CBO said. Part of the impact will be mitigated by the more than $2 trillion the federal government has already approved in emergency spending for households and businesses.
美國國會預算辦公室表示，疫情將減少消費者支出，並導致大量企業倒閉，從而阻礙美國經濟增長。聯邦政府已經批准爲家庭和企業提供超過2萬億美元的緊急支出，這將部分緩解危機的影響。"Business closures and social distancing measures are expected to curtail consumer spending, while the recent drop in energy prices is projected to severely reduce US investment in the energy sector," said Phillip L. Swagel, the CBO director and former economic expert at the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right think tank.
美國國會預算辦公室主任、曾在中右翼智庫美國企業研究所任職的經濟專家菲利普·L-史威格說：“企業倒閉和社交隔離措施預計將削減消費者支出，而近期能源價格下跌將大量減少美國在能源領域的投資。”The pandemic's impact on the US economy has been swift. The unemployment rate jumped from 3.5 percent in February to 14.7 percent in April. Tax revenue plummeted, spending skyrocketed, and the economy quickly contracted after years of growth.
新冠疫情使美國經濟迅速受到影響。失業率從2月份的3.5%上升到4月份的14.7%。稅收收入銳減，支出激增，經濟在多年增長後迅速萎縮。
The CBO report was requested by Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer and Sen. Bernie Sanders, who serves on the Senate Budget Committee. The CBO had previously released forecasts for 2020 and 2021.
美國國會預算辦公室的報告是應參議院少數黨領袖查爾斯·E-舒默和參議院預算委員會成員、聯邦參議員伯尼·桑德斯的要求做出的。美國國會預算辦公室此前曾發佈2020年和2021年的預測。"Slower growth means higher unemployment, lower wages, and less income for people. What we are looking at is another decade of that," said Adam Ozimek, chief economist at Upwork.
Upwork的首席經濟學家亞當·奧茲梅克說：“經濟增長放緩意味着更高的失業率、更低的工資和更少的收入。未來10年很可能會這樣。”The White House said last week it would not be releasing its updated economic projections, such as GDP and unemployment statistics, because of the high level of volatility in the US economy. CBO and other economic analysts have been able to do so.
白宮上週表示，由於美國經濟的高度波動性，不會發布國內生產總值和失業統計等最新經濟預測。而美國國會預算辦公室和其他經濟分析人士已經做出了預測。The CBO's letter says while "real" GDP will fall by about $8 trillion, "nominal" GDP will fall by $16 trillion over the next 10 years. That measure is viewed by economists as less significant because it does not include the impact of inflation.
美國國會預算辦公室在信中說，在未來10年，“實際”國內生產總值將下降大約8萬億美元，“名義”國內生產總值將下降16萬億美元。經濟學家認爲這一指標不太重要，因爲它不包括通貨膨脹的影響。Lawmakers are debating whether to renew several federal aid programs set to expire, including a sizable increase in unemployment benefits that will lapse at the end of July. Congressional Democrats seized on the CBO's findings to argue additional emergency aid is urgently needed.
國會議員們正在討論是否延長几個即將到期的聯邦援助項目，其中包括將在7月底到期的大幅度增加失業救濟。國會民主黨人利用國會預算辦公室的調查結果爭辯稱，現在迫切需要更多的緊急援助。"In order to avoid the risk of another Great Depression, the Senate must act with a fierce sense of urgency to make sure that everyone in America has the income they need to feed their families and put a roof over their heads," Schumer said in a statement. "The American people cannot afford to wait another month for the Senate to pass legislation. They need our help now."
舒默在一份聲明中說：“爲了避免另一場大蕭條的風險，參議院必須以強烈的緊迫感採取行動，確保每個美國人都有足夠的收入來養家餬口，不至於無家可歸。美國人民等不了參議院用一個月時間通過法案了，他們現在急需我們的幫助。”
