中國外匯儲備9月縮水430億美元
China’s foreign exchange reserves fell another $43bn last month, suggesting continued intervention in the forex markets to support the renminbi.
上月中國外匯儲備下降430億美元，似乎表明中國當局爲支撐人民幣而繼續幹預匯市。
However, the pace of capital outflow slowed compared with August, when reserves fell $94bn, the sharpest monthly fall on record, as the People’s Bank of China sold down some of its formidable stockpile to support its currency after the August 11 devaluation.
然而，相比外匯儲備下降940億美元的8月份（中國外匯儲備有記錄以來降幅最大的一個月），資本外流的節奏有所放緩。8月11日人民幣貶值後，中國央行出售其令人生畏的外匯儲備中的一部分，以支撐人民幣匯率。
“The figure shows capital outflow continued but more slowly than last month,” said Ding Shuang, head of greater China economic research at Standard Chartered. “The government is trying to reassure the market that a large-scale renminbi devaluation won’t happen not only through words but also by action. We expect the intervention will generally slow down in the following months.”
“該數據表明，資本繼續外流，但是較8月有所放緩，”渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)大中華區經濟研究部主管丁爽稱，“政府正試圖通過言行向市場保證：人民幣大規模貶值不會發生。我們預計未來數月干預總體上將逐步放慢。”
The country’s forex reserves now stand at $3.514tn, the lowest since July 2013. Reserves have fallen by an average $36.5bn a month this year, with April the only month they grew.
中國的外匯儲備如今爲3.514萬億美元，這是自2013年7月以來的最低水平。今年以來，中國外匯儲備平均每個月下降365億美元，4月份是唯一有所增長的月份。
Analysts on Wednesday said actual outflows could be worse than the headline figure suggests.
分析師們週三表示，實際的資本外流情況可能比整體數據所表明的更糟。
“As the PBoC also intervened in the forward market in the past month, the foreign reserves will likely plunge again when these forward contracts mature,” said Zhou Hao, senior emerging market economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore. “In addition, Chinese residents will likely purchase a large amount of foreign currency in October to repay credit card bills, as overseas travel hit a new record during the October Golden Week holidays.”
“由於中國央行在過去一個月還干預了遠期外匯市場，當這些遠期合約到期時，外匯儲備很可能將再次大幅下降，”德國商業銀行(Commerzbank AG)駐新加坡的新興市場高級經濟學家周浩稱，“另外，由於十一黃金週假期的海外旅遊人數創下新紀錄，10月中國居民很可能將購買大量外匯來償還信用卡賬單。”
Ahead of the week-long holiday, which ends on Wednesday, state media forecast that the number of mainlanders taking overseas trips this year — and potentially needing to settle bills with foreign currency — would rise 11 per cent to 4m against the same time last year.
在一週長假於週三結束之前，官方媒體預測，今年中國大陸赴海外旅遊的人數——他們可能需要用外幣結算信用卡賬單——同比將增加11%，至400萬人。
The PBoC in August devalued the renminbi and switched to a more market-oriented exchange rate regime, prompting a 2.6 per cent decline in the currency that month.
今年8月，中國央行(PBoC)調低了人民幣匯率，並改用一種在更大程度上以市場爲導向的匯率形成機制，導致當月人民幣匯率下降了2.6%。
The central bank has been intervening in both the onshore and offshore markets to prevent the renminbi from falling too steeply, a strategy that drains reserves.
中國央行在境內和離岸兩個市場實施干預，以阻止人民幣貶值過度，這一戰略消耗了外匯儲備。
Driven by large trade surpluses, China’s reserves peaked at almost $4tn in June 2014. A fall of 12 per cent since then still leaves China with considerable firepower to prop up its currency.
在高額貿易順差的驅動下，中國外匯儲備於2014年6月達到近4萬億美元的最高點。雖然外匯儲備自那以來減少了12%，但中國仍有強大的火力支撐人民幣匯率。
