萬達院線收購萬達影視值得嗎
To judge by the premiere, every movie is a triumph. Wider audiences often take a different view. Yesterday, shares in Wanda Cinema Lines jumped one-tenth as it reopened from a trading suspension. Ignore the air-kissing on the red carpet: Wanda could have done better things with the $5.7bn it is spending to acquire Wanda Pictures Media from its parent group.
按照首映式判斷，每部電影都是成功佳作。廣大的觀衆則往往有不同的看法。昨日萬達院線(Wanda Cinema Line)股票復牌後，股價大漲十分之一。別理會紅地毯上的飛吻：萬達院線用來從母公司收購萬達影視(Wanda Pictures Media)的57億美元，本來可以派上更好的用處。
Wanda Pictures Media owns Legendary Entertainment, a US media group bought by Wanda in January for $3.5bn, as well as other content-related businesses. Wanda Cinema will issue new shares to its unlisted parent and other shareholders at a discount, raising $6.8bn.
萬達影視擁有傳奇娛樂(Legendary Entertainment)——萬達在今年1月斥資35億美元收購的美國製片集團——以及其他一些與內容相關的業務。萬達院線將向其未上市的母公司和其他股東折價發行新股，以募集68億美元。
Marrying content and distribution can make sense in mature or highly competitive distribution channels. Apple locks in users by providing ever more software and apps. Television networks, too, ensure viewers do not defect to rivals by offering exclusive content. But China’s cinema industry is far from mature. Box-office revenues have been growing at double digits annually; the market may overtake the US next year. The ratio of screens to population is less than one-fifth that of the US, according to HSBC.
將內容和發行融爲一體，對於成熟或高度競爭的發行渠道可能是合理的。蘋果(Apple)通過提供越來越多的軟件和app來鎖定用戶。電視網絡也通過提供獨家內容來確保觀衆不投奔競爭對手。但是中國的影院行業遠未成熟。票房收入近年以兩位數的年度增速增長；整個市場有望在明年超越美國。但據匯豐(HSBC)估計，中國的銀幕塊數與人口之比尚不及美國水平的五分之一。
The industry is also very fragmented. The top three players take one-third of ticket sales in China; in the US they control nearly twice as much of the market. Up to three-fifths of China’s cinemas lose money. Wanda, whose movie houses make more than twice the average cinema’s revenue, could gain much from buying and turning around the underperformers. Owning blockbuster studios whose movies can be distributed through affiliated cinemas may be more glitzy, but the hitherto steady growth of Wanda Cinema Lines looks less attractive with lumpy revenues from film hits (and misses) attached.
該行業還高度碎片化。前三大影院運營商佔中國票房總收入的三分之一；在美國前三大影院運營商的市場份額高出近一倍。多達五分之三的中國電影院處於虧損狀態。旗下影院收入超過行業平均水平一倍多的萬達院線，本來可以收購業績不佳的影院，然後將其扭虧爲盈，從中大賺一把。擁有大片迭出的製片廠、由自家旗下影院發行該製片廠出品的電影，這種模式也許比較光鮮，但萬達院線之前的穩定增長在與來自叫座或不叫座影片的不穩定收入綁定之後，看上去吸引力下降了。
Wanda has sweetened the deal by pledging to underwrite a minimum net profit contribution of $775m for three years. That does not make it worthy of the red-carpet treatment.
萬達爲了使這筆交易更誘人，承諾在三年裏保證最低7.75億美元的淨利潤。這並不使它配得上紅地毯待遇。
