蘋果用iPhone撬動全球經濟

Gloomy economic news and the wild swings of the stock market may be getting you down. But at least you can count on this: We’ve entered the sweet spot of the iPhone cycle.

糟糕的經濟新聞和股市的劇烈波動可能會讓你感到失望。但至少有一件事可以指望：我們已經進入了iPhone產品週期中的最佳時刻。

Since Sept. 19, when the iPhone 6 and its larger sibling, the iPhone 6 Plus, went on sale, consumers have been ordering the gadgets faster than Apple can deliver them. The ripple effects are being felt throughout the economy — and they have been moving the stock market.

自從9月19日，iPhone 6和尺寸較大的iPhone 6 Plus上市以來，消費者下單訂購的速度就超出了蘋果公司(Apple)供貨的速度。它們的影響波及了整個經濟，甚至影響了股市。

“The iPhone is having a measurable impact,” said Michael Feroli, the chief United States economist for JPMorgan Chase. “It’s a little gadget, but it costs a lot and it seems that everybody has one. When you do the multiplication, it’s going to matter.” He estimates that iPhone sales are adding one-quarter to one-third of a percentage point to the annualized growth rate of the gross domestic product.

“iPhone的影響是顯著的，”摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的首席美國經濟師邁克爾·費羅利(Michael Feroli)說。“這個設備雖然小，但是價格很貴，而且似乎人人都有一部。乘一下就知道這是多大一筆收入了。”他估計，iPhone的銷售額能將國內生產總值(GDP)的年化增長率提高四分之一到三分之一個百分點。

You may not think of the iPhone as a financial powerhouse. After all, it’s just a consumer good — albeit a highly functional, high-end one that you can carry in your pocket or your purse. Sales typically surge every two years when, as now, Apple does a major iPhone upgrade. You may have the warm and personal relationship with the iPhone that Timothy D. Cook, Apple’s chief executive, described on Monday to Wall Street analysts during a conference call. Apple’s next three months will be “incredibly strong,” he said. And he spoke enthusiastically about the principal reason for this performance: “These iPhones are the best we have ever created and customers absolutely love them.”

你可能不會覺得iPhone能推動金融市場。畢竟，它只是一個消費品——儘管它是一款功能強大、可以裝在口袋或手包裏的高端設備。通常每過兩年，當蘋果推出iPhone重大升級時，比如現在，就會出現一次銷售額激增。你或許與iPhone之間存在一種溫馨的私人關係，就像蘋果首席執行官蒂莫西·D·庫克(Timothy D. Cook)在週一的電話會議上對華爾街分析師所說的那樣。蘋果的表現在未來三個月裏會“異常強勁”，他說。他熱情洋溢地談到了這種狀況的主要原因：“新的iPhone，是我們迄今爲止推出的最好機型，顧客絕對喜歡。”

Whether you love them or not, though, it’s a good moment to recognize their significance as a financial force.

但無論你是不是喜歡，現在都應該承認iPhone對於金融市場是一支重要的力量。

The iPhone’s financial impact starts, of course, with Apple, which is reaping enormous profit from it. As the company disclosed in data embedded in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Monday, it has been selling a broad mix of iPhone models at an average price of $603.

iPhone對金融的影響當然從蘋果開始，該公司從中賺取了鉅額利潤。蘋果本週一提交給證券交易委員會(Securities and Exchange Commission)的一份文件顯示，它銷售各款iPhone的均價是603美元（約合3690元人民幣）。

That’s not remotely close to the “starting price of $199” that Apple advertises, as I wrote last month. The full price is embedded in service agreements that many customers in the United States reach with phone carriers. And many of those carriers are stating that full price quite openly. The real starting price for a new, basic iPhone is $649, and models with more memory and bigger screens cost much more.

這和蘋果公司“199美元起售”的廣告相差懸遠，我上個月已經寫過這個話題。手機的全價包含在與手機運營商簽訂的套餐服務協議中。很多運營商都相當公開地報出了手機的全價，新的基本款iPhone真正的起價是649美元，存儲空間和屏幕更大的機型價格還要貴很多。

This price structure is lucrative for Apple. “The cost of building a basic phone has stayed at about $200 for years,” said Andrew Rassweiler, senior director for cost benchmarking services, at IHS Technology.

這種價格結構爲蘋果帶來了豐厚利潤。“多年來，基本款iPhone的成本一直保持在200美元左右，”安德魯·拉斯維勒(Andrew Rassweiler)說。他是研究機構IHS科技(IHS Technology)負責成本基準比較的高級總監。

That estimate doesn’t include many expenses, like research and marketing costs. But it’s a rough guidepost, and it helps explain how, as Apple disclosed in a court filing two years ago, its profit margins for the iPhone are roughly double those for iPads, which tend to be priced more cheaply.

以上估計數值沒有包含許多開銷，比如研發和營銷成本。但它可以作爲一個粗略的標準，幫助解釋爲什麼像蘋果兩年前在一份法庭文件中披露的那樣，iPhone的利潤率差不多是iPad的兩倍。iPad的定價往往要低於iPhone。

Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, says the gross profit margin for the iPhone is close to 50 percent. Because the iPhone is Apple’s most popular product — with more than 39 million sold in the last quarter — it accounts for a disproportionately large percentage of Apple’s overall profit, somewhere between 60 and 70 percent, Mr. Sacconaghi said.

桑福德·伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford C. Bernstein)的分析師託尼·薩克納吉(Toni Sacconaghi)說，iPhone的毛利率接近50%。他說，由於iPhone是蘋果公司最受歡迎的產品——上季度銷量超過3900萬部，它在蘋果總利潤中的比重格外大，在60%到70%之間。

“Apple is now so big that it takes a lot to make it grow appreciably,” Mr. Sacconaghi said. It’s producing an impressive interrelated ecosystem of products and services, including its forthcoming digital watches, its new digital payment system, its revived Mac line, refreshed iPads and new software operating systems. Even if all of its ventures succeed, none are likely in the next year or two to rival the financial impact of the iPhone. “The iPhone is the core of Apple right now,” he said.

“蘋果現在已經如此龐大，要想大幅成長，需要付出極大的努力，”薩克納吉說。蘋果正在創造一個不同凡響的生態系統，它由相互關聯的產品和服務組成，包括即將推出的智能手錶、新的數字支付系統、經過升級的Mac產品線、新版iPad，以及新的軟件操作系統。即使上述項目都大獲成功，在未來一兩年裏，它們產生的金融影響，也不可能與iPhone匹敵。他說，“iPhone目前是蘋果的核心。”

In a sense, it’s the core of the stock market as well. Apple is the biggest company, by market capitalization, in the world. Apple accounts for about 3.5 percent of the weighting of the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. And, through Thursday, because its stock has performed magnificently while the overall market has not, Apple accounted for 18 percent of the entire rise of the S.&P. 500 index this year, according to calculations by Paul Hickey, co-founder of the Bespoke Investment Group. And the engine driving Apple shares is the iPhone.

在一定意義上，iPhone也是股市的核心。蘋果是世界上市值最大的公司。蘋果在標準普爾500指數(Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index)中的權重爲3.5%左右。按照貝斯波克投資集團(Bespoke Investment Group)聯合創始人保羅·希基(Paul Hickey)的計算，截至週四，由於蘋果的股票表現不俗，而股市整體表現不佳，在標普500指數今年的漲幅中，18%是由蘋果推動的。而iPhone則是助推蘋果股價的引擎。

“The market is obviously counting on another strong sales performance for the new iPhone,” he said. So far, it’s getting that performance. And, he said, Apple’s invigorating effect is likely to continue.

“市場顯然認爲新的iPhone銷售業績仍會很強勁，”他說。迄今爲止，它的確接近這種表現。而且他說，蘋果對股市的刺激效果很可能會持續下去。

Because the iPhone is made mainly overseas and sold worldwide, it is stimulating the economy in other regions, particular in East Asia, Mr. Feroli observed, and it keeps a substantial amount of its cash abroad. Such factors make it harder to assess the company’s impact domestically.

費羅利說，由於iPhone主要在海外生產，而且在全球銷售，它還刺激着其他地區的經濟，尤其是東亞。此外，蘋果還把大量現金留在海外。綜合這些因素，蘋果在美國國內的影響就更加難以評估。

“It’s not like G.M. having a great quarter,” Mr. Feroli said. “It doesn’t translate directly into employment in the United States. It’s a more complex world today, and, in that sense, Apple is representative of that world.”

“這與通用汽車創造了很好的季度業績不是一回事，”費羅利說。“它不會直接轉化成美國的就業崗位。世界已經變得更加複雜，從這種意義上講，蘋果就是這個世界的代表。”

Apple, though, is having a powerful impact in the United States. Last month, for example, electronic and consumer appliance store sales jumped 3.4 percent while clothing sales fell 1.2 percent, according to Commerce Department figures. “People are buying iPhones, partly as a status symbol,” Mr. Feroli said. “They’re not buying as much clothing.”

不過，蘋果仍然對美國產生了巨大的影響。例如，商務部的數據顯示，上個月，電子產品和家電的銷售增長了3.4%，而服裝銷售下降了1.2%。“人們購買iPhone，一定程度上是把它當做身份的象徵，”費羅利說，“所以他們減少了服裝的購買。”

Even people who don’t buy iPhones and don’t own Apple shares have a stake in the company. I don’t own any Apple stock, for example, but I do have a stake indirectly through my 401(k) account. That’s because mutual funds in my portfolio own Apple shares as their biggest holdings. Nearly every pension fund holds some stock, and these days, there’s a good chance the biggest holding is Apple. And the most important financial lever at Apple is the iPhone.

即使沒買iPhone也沒有蘋果股票的人，也與這家公司利益攸關。例如，我就沒有蘋果的股票，但卻通過401(k)賬戶與蘋果有間接的利益關係。這是因爲我的投資組合裏的共同基金持有蘋果股票，而且是其資產中的最大部分。幾乎每支養老基金都持有一些股票，現如今，它們持有的可能大部分是蘋果股票。而在蘋果公司，最重要的金融槓桿就是iPhone。

All of that helps explain why Apple is such a formidable force, especially at this stage in its product cycle. And as the holiday shopping season approaches, and iPhones keep flying off the shelves, Apple may well keep moving the world.

以上種種都解釋了爲什麼蘋果有如此強大的力量，尤其是在其產品週期中的當前階段。隨着假日銷售季的臨近，以及iPhone的火爆銷售，蘋果完全可以繼續改變我們的世界。