Boeing has forecast that China will overtake the US as the world’s largest aviation market, extending a surge in single-aisle aircraft demand. Randy Tinseth, a Boeing vice-president, said the reordering of the market would occur by 2033. Chinese air travel, as measured by revenue passenger kilometres, is only about half as large as the US and Canada’s combined. In its annual China market forecast, Boeing projected that Chinese airlines would buy 6,000 aircraft worth $870bn in the next 20 years, with single-aisle aircraft accounting for more than two-thirds of demand. The size of China’s fleet is expected to triple, to about 7,000 aircraft, over the same period. Boeing’s previous forecasts have underestimated purchases of single-aisle aircraft. “I don’t think we anticipated the demand in emerging economies and from low-cost carriers,” said Mr Tinseth, whose forecast echoes similar predictions by rival Airbus. The growth of low-cost China carriers is expected to be an important source of demand. In July, China Eastern became the first of the big three airlines to launch a budget carrier. Boeing also expects new international routes to spur sales of the 787 Dreamliner. China Southern and Hainan Airlines took deliveries of their first Dreamliners last year, with Hainan deploying it on a new service from Beijing to Boston. Boeing has not outlined any plans to manufacture aircraft in the country, while China’s own Comac has struggled with product delays. “China is trying to do [what Airbus did in 40 years] in an accelerated manner,” Mr Tinseth said. 波音(Boeing)預測，中國將取代美國成爲世界最大的航空市場，單通道客機將因此在更長時間內面臨需求激增的局面。 波音副總裁蘭迪•廷塞斯(Randy Tinseth)說，市場規模排名的這一變化將發生在2033年。按客公里收入(RPK)計算，中國的民航運量僅約爲美國和加拿大之和的一半。 波音在其對中國市場的年度預測中預計，中國的航空公司會在未來20年裏購買6000架客機，總值8700億美元，其中單通道客機佔總需求的三分之二以上。 同期，中國的機隊規模將擴大至現在的3倍，達到7000架。波音此前的預測低估了單通道客機的購買量。“我認爲我們沒有預計到新興經濟體和低成本航空公司的需求，”廷塞斯說。他的預測呼應了波音競爭對手空客(Airbus)做出的類似預測。 低成本航空公司的增長預計將成爲需求的重要來源。7月份，中國東方航空(China Eastern)成爲中國三大航空公司中首家設立廉價航空公司的公司。 波音還預測，新的國際航線將刺激波音787夢幻客機(787 Dreamliner)的銷售。 中國南方航空(China Southern)和海南航空(Hainan Airlines)去年接收了它們的首批夢幻客機機型，海航將其用於北京至波士頓的新航班上。 波音還沒有擬定任何在中國生產飛機的計劃，中國本土的中國商用飛機公司(Comac)則在努力解決產品延遲交付的問題。“中國正在努力以一種加速的方式完成（空客在過去40年完成的工作），”廷塞斯說。
