深挖黑莓集團股價飆升之謎

BlackBerry is far from what it used to be, but based on its stock performance this year, the smartphone maker isn’t ready for a burial just yet.

黑莓（BlackBerry）確實今不如昔，但根據今年的股價走勢，這家智能手機制造商看來還沒打算跟世界徹底告別。

BlackBerry shares have climbed nearly 45% this year to $10.94 on Tuesday. That’s pretty remarkable performance for any stock, let alone that of a company many shrugged off as irrelevant and nearly defunct. BlackBerry’s U.S. market share among smartphones is an anemic 2.3% versus Android’s 52.1% and Apple’s 41.9%, according to comScore.

今年初以來，黑莓的股價上漲了近45%，週二收盤時報10.94美元。對任何一隻股票而言，這樣的表現都相當出色，更不用說黑莓這樣的公司——在許多人眼中它已經無足輕重，而且瀕臨倒閉。數字領域分析機構康姆斯科（comScore）提供的數據顯示，黑莓在美國智能手機市場中的份額只有2.3%，而安卓（Android）和蘋果公司（Apple）的份額分別爲52.1%和41.9%。

Are rebounding shares one sign of a possible BlackBerry comeback? Not necessarily. Although investors are clearly excited about something happening over at Waterloo.

股價反彈是否意味着黑莓可能東山再起呢？未必。但這家公司的一些動向顯然讓投資者感到興奮。

“The primary thing they’ve done is cut costs,” says Ken Dulaney, a vice president at Gartner, a tech research firm. In May, BlackBerry began selling the Z3 smartphone exclusively in Indonesia. The 5-inch, touchscreen device is more notable for its affordability – it costs $190 – than features. It was also one of the first products to emerge from a partnership with Foxconn, the Taiwanese manufacturer responsible for churning out iPads, iPhones, and Kindle e-readers. Previously, BlackBerry contracted out its phone manufacturing, but a new partnership with Foxconn – a notoriously efficient business - is intended to be more cost-efficient in the face of declining revenues, which plunged 69% to $966 during BlackBerry’s first quarter.

科技行業研究機構高德納（Gartner）副總裁肯o杜拉尼說：“他們的主要成就是削減成本。”5月份，黑莓推出了專門針對印尼市場的Z3智能手機。這款5英寸觸屏手機最引人關注的是低廉的價格，而不是功能——它的售價僅爲190美元。這也是黑莓和富士康——iPad、iPhone和Kindle電子書閱讀器的臺灣代工廠商成爲合作伙伴後推出的首批產品之一。此前，黑莓曾將手機制造業務外包，而這次跟以效率聞名的富士康合作則是爲了在收入不斷下降之際提高成本效率。黑莓第一財季收入大幅下跌69%，下降到了9.66億美元。

“Investors don’t care if it [BlackBerry] goes out of business in the next two years,” explains Dulaney. “If there’s a perception that it’s doing better for a period of time, they can invest in it.”

杜拉尼解釋說：“投資者並不關心今後兩年（黑莓）是否會倒閉。如果人們覺得它的情況會在一段時間內得到改善，就會對它投資。”

Besides slashing costs, Chen has also expressed interest in finding new ways for BlackBerry to make money. It’s banking on new devices for emerging markets where the brand remains more widely-used, as well as better enterprise software that is due out by the end of the year.

除了削減成本，另一個讓人感興趣的問題是，黑莓能否找到賺錢的新途徑。這家公司寄希望於面向新興市場的新產品以及更好的企業軟件。在新興市場，黑莓手機仍然得到了比較廣泛的應用，改進後的企業軟件也將在今年底之前推出。

That may not be enough. While Dulaney suggests BlackBerry give up trying to own the software operating system its devices run for the more popular Android he suggests a more radical approach: splitting the company up so products like its messaging service, which still has 80 million-plus users monthly, have a better shot at surviving without the pressures of a larger company in turn-around mode.

但這些也許還不夠。杜拉尼認爲，這家公司應該放棄擁有黑莓手機操作系統的嘗試，轉而採用更受歡迎的安卓系統。他還提出了一個更大膽的建議：將黑莓拆分開來。這樣，它的某些產品，比如每月仍有8000多萬用戶的短信服務，就更有可能生存下來，而且不需要承受一家大公司在扭轉頹勢的過程中所面臨的壓力。

Adds Dulaney: “If BlackBerry wants to stay a single entity, they’ll need to sell millions and millions more devices.” Possible, but more and more unlikely as the competition’s prices continue to drop.

杜拉尼指出：“如果想保持完整，黑莓的手機銷量就得提高許多許多。”這有可能，但隨着競爭對手不斷降低產品價格，這種可能性正變得越來越渺茫。