收成不佳導致全球茶葉價格飆升大綱

The price of tea has jumped to a 2½-year high as poor crops in some of the world's most important producers strain supplies.
茶葉價格跳漲至2年半高點，因一些最重要產茶國的歉收影響了供應。

Dry conditions, poor rains and frosts have hit tea production in Kenya, the largest exporter of black tea. A bad monsoon has reduced production prospects in India and Sri Lanka, two other major exporters.
天氣乾燥、雨水少以及霜凍影響了紅茶最大出口國肯尼亞的茶葉產量。降雨不足降低了其他兩個主要茶葉出口國——印度和斯里蘭卡的產量預期。

The wholesale price of the highest quality black tea – known as broken pekoe 1 or BP1 – has surged 41 per cent higher since the start of the year, last month surpassing $4 a kg, a level seen only once before in late 2009, when prices reached $5.45.
自今年年初以來，最高等級紅茶一級碎白毫(BP1)的批發價格已飆升41%，上月超過每千克4美元。這一水平以前僅在2009年末出現過一次，當時價格達到5.45美元。

The increase in prices will be felt the world over by drinkers of sweet brews in Cairo, milky cuppas in London and iced tea in Los Angeles. Tea lovers in poorer countries such as Afghanistan and Pakistan are likely to feel the greatest impact, analysts said, because retailer margins are lower than in the west.
開羅甜茶、倫敦奶茶以及洛杉磯冰茶的飲用者們將感受到茶葉價格上漲的影響。分析師表示，阿富汗和巴基斯坦等較貧窮國家的喝茶愛好者可能會受到最嚴重影響，因爲這些地方的零售商利潤率低於西方。

Kaison Chang, secretary of the intergovernmental group on tea at the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, said retailers were unlikely to pass on the full rise. "You would expect some impact on the retail level but the competition among all beverages at the retail level is pretty intensive," he said.
聯合國(UN)糧農組織(FAO)政府間茶葉小組祕書長常愷鬆(Kaison Chang)表示，零售商不太可能將全部漲幅轉嫁給消費者。他表示："預計這將對零售價格造成一些影響，但在零售領域，各種飲料之間的競爭相當激烈。"

Unlike coffee, tea does not trade in a futures exchange but via physical deals at weekly auctions in Mombasa, Kenya.
與咖啡不同，茶葉不在期貨交易所交易，而是在肯尼亞蒙巴薩每週舉行的拍賣會上進行現貨交易。

Traders and analysts believe that prices may climb further this year. Kenyan tea production was 158,000 tonnes in the first six months of the year, down 11.3 per cent from 2011, according to the Tea Board of Kenya. Indian and Sri Lankan output is likely to be 5-10 per cent lower than last year, according to Mr Chang.
交易商和分析師認爲，茶葉價格今年可能會繼續攀升。根據肯尼亞茶葉管理委員會(Tea Board of Kenya)的數據，今年頭6個月，肯尼亞茶葉產量爲15.8萬噸，較2011年減少11.3%。常愷鬆表示，印度和斯里蘭卡的茶葉產量可能會比去年減少5%至10%。

"Indications are that the price is going to go up pretty high," he said. The falls in production would support prices at a level of about $4.50 a kg, he added.
他表示："有跡象顯示，茶葉價格將升至很高水平。"他補充稱，產量下降將令茶葉價格在每千克約4.50美元的水平獲得支撐。

The biggest importers of tea – Russia, the UK, Pakistan and the Middle East – have stocked up in recent months, traders said, meaning that prices could ease in the short term as buyers step back from the market.
交易商表示，最近幾個月，最大茶葉進口國——俄羅斯、英國、巴基斯坦和中東國家——增加了庫存，這意味着，短期而言，隨着買家退出市場，價格可能會下跌。

In its most recent market report, Van Rees, a Dutch tea trader, said it expected prices to "take a breather before taking off again for winter".
荷蘭茶葉交易商Van Rees在其最新市場報告中稱，預計茶葉價格將"短暫休整一番，到冬季將再次上漲"。

But demand is rising quickly in India and China, traditionally large exporters. "The consumption level in China and India has been growing pretty rapidly over the last five years or so and that has contributed significantly to the increase in prices," said Mr Chang.
然而，在傳統茶葉出口大國——印度和中國，需求正快速升溫。常愷鬆表示："過去5年左右，中國和印度的消費水平一直在快速上升，這大大促進了價格的上漲。"