日本金價飆升推動拋售活動

Japan's gold holders may be preparing to cash out of some bullion after the yen's drop has sent domestic prices of the metal soaring.

在日圓貶值導致國內金價飆升後，日本黃金持有者可能正準備將部分金條換成現款。

But Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic overhauls could provide a fresh demand source in the country later this year if investors seek hedges against inflation.

但日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)的經濟改革可能會在今年晚些時候讓日本國內出現新的黃金需求，如果投資者爲對抗通脹而尋求資產保值的話。

The price of gold within Japan hit a record high this week. It has jumped 4.2% since the start of the year and about 10% since late November, when Mr. Abe sparked a slide in the yen by pushing for further monetary easing to boost the sluggish economy.

日本國內的金價本週達到破紀錄的高位，年初至今漲了4.2%。去年11月末以來，漲幅更是超過10%。當時安倍晉三爲刺激日本疲弱的經濟，推動進一步放寬貨幣政策，引發日圓下跌。

While global benchmark prices of gold in dollars are little changed this year, the yen's retreat against the dollar has made the metal more expensive for buyers in Japan.

按美元計算的全球黃金基準價今年幾無變化，而日圓兌美元的下跌讓黃金對日本國內買家來說更顯昂貴。

Those higher prices, traders say, have spurred increased selling activity in recent weeks, including stepped-up inquiries from retail investors. In the past, the race to sell gold has gotten intense at times; investors formed queues outside jewelers in downtown Tokyo five years ago and again in September 2011, when gold prices hit peaks, though that hasn't yet happened this time around.

交易員說，在金價走高的影響下，這幾周黃金拋售活動增多，其中散戶的諮詢也有所增加。過去，競相出售黃金的情況時有發生，有時氣氛搞得還很緊張。五年前，投資者曾在東京市中心的珠寶行外排起長隊，而這一景象在2011年9月金價達到峯值時再次出現。不過這次到目前爲止，還沒有出現拋售潮。

'We initially expect a lot more selling back of gold, including used jewelry, before we see new buying,' said Naoto Mizuki, general manager of the marketing department at Tanaka Kikinzoku Jewelry, a major gold dealer and retail store.

日本大型黃金交易商和零售店田中貴金屬珠寶株式會社(Tanaka Kikinzoku Jewelry)營銷部總經理水木直人(Naoto Mizuki，音)說，最初我們以爲在新一輪購買潮到來前，會有比現在規模大得多的黃金回售活動，包括二手首飾。

Japan's investors don't have the same voracious appetite for gold as those in China and India, which are the world's top two gold buyers. As such, changes in Japanese buying or selling patterns are unlikely to become major drivers for international gold prices.

相比中國和印度這兩個全球最大黃金買家，日本投資者對黃金的需求並沒有那麼貪婪。就這一點而論，日本人買賣模式的變化不太可能成爲影響國際金價的主要因素。

Still, Japan is awash in gold thanks to hefty imports during the country's bubble economy in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In 1993, gold imports to Japan totaled more than 160 metric tons, including heavy buying of coins and jewelry, but a decade later imports had fallen to about 55 tons, according to data from gold dealer Tanaka and precious-metals consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS.

但日本的黃金存量仍然很大，原因是日本在上世紀80年代末和90年代初經濟泡沫期間的大量進口。據黃金交易商Tanaka和貴金屬諮詢機構Thomson Reuters GFMS統計，1993年日本進口的黃金總計超過160噸，其中包括對金幣和首飾的大舉採購；但10年後，日本進口的黃金降至約55噸。

However, Mr. Abe's push to boost inflation, and the appeal of hard assets such as gold that hold their value in times of currency weakness, may bring some new buyers to the market.

不過，安倍晉三推高通脹的努力以及貨幣疲軟時黃金等硬資產的保值吸引力也許會爲日本黃金市場帶來一些新買家。

'As inflationary pressures pick up, you could see more people looking to hedge against the erosion of value in their portfolios,' said Nicholas Trevethan, senior commodities strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. +1.06% 'The first product people think about when it comes to inflation is gold: it's a very obvious trade.'

澳新銀行(Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.)大宗商品高級策略師特勒維森(Nicholas Trevethan)說，隨着通脹壓力的增大，可能會有越來越多的人希望保護其資產組合價值不受侵蝕，而談到抗通脹，人們想到的第一個產品就是黃金：這是個顯而易見的交易。

Japan's benchmark Tokyo Commodity Exchange yen-denominated gold contract has outperformed the dollar-denominated gold price that is used in the international market. London gold was at $1,679.75 a troy ounce Wednesday, down 0.1% since the start of the year.

東京商品交易所(Tokyo Commodity Exchange)以日圓計價的基準黃金合約價格高於國際市場上以美元計價的黃金價格。週三，倫敦金價爲每盎司1,679.75美元，較年初下跌了0.1%。

'There is certainly buying out there, it's just that it's outweighed by the selling that there is,' said David Jollie, a strategic analyst at trading-house Mitsui Precious Metals. 'One thing you have is a generational difference, with young people who have disposable income buying gold, and selling by the older generation [who were the original importers of Japan's gold stock], so there's going to be a bit of a battle between those two sides.'

貿易公司三井貴金屬(Mitsui Precious Metals)的策略分析師喬力(David Jollie) 說，日本國內肯定有人在買黃金，只是現在拋售佔了上風而已。他說，其中有一點是代際差異，也就是說那些有可支配收入的年輕人在買黃金，而年紀大的人(也是當初進口黃金的人)在賣黃金，所以說有點像是這兩撥人在進行拉鋸戰。

Over the last three to five years, more young Japanese people have become interested in gold, partly due to scant returns in the property and equity markets. After years of deflation, though, it is hard to predict how Japan's investors will react to an inflationary environment.

過去三到五年，對黃金感興趣的年輕人漸多，原因之一是房地產和股票市場提供的回報並不理想。不過在經歷了多年通縮之後，現在很難預測日本投資者將對通脹環境作何反應。

'It takes time to turn around an economy and change fiscal conditions,' said Takahiro Morita, director of investment for the World Gold Council in Japan.

世界黃金協會(World Gold Council)駐日本的投資負責人森田隆大(Takahiro Morita)說，扭轉經濟並改變財政狀況，這是需要時間的。