悲情諾基亞:芬蘭 別爲我哭泣

It's a sad day for Finland. Or is it? Sure, much of the phonemaker's storied legacy -- and future -- is now in MicrosoFT's hands, a bitter pill to swallow for many Finns. And yes, 32,000 Nokia employees will become part of the Redmond-based tech giant's empire overnight, whether they like it or not. But Nokia's (NOK) downward spiral began a long time ago, and the company wasn't headed toward any kind of happy ending, with or without Microsoft (MSFT) swooping in to buy its devices and services business for $7.2 billion. What's more, the deal may actually give the Finnish brand a sliver of a chance to regain some of its lost momentum. Especially if Stephen Elop -- yes, the Nokia CEO and former Microsoft exec now blamed for this most recent turn of events -- lands the top job in Redmond.

微軟（Microsoft）收購諾基亞（Nokia）是不是芬蘭人的悲情一日？如今手機制造商諾基亞的傳奇和未來都握在微軟手中，這是許多芬蘭人不得不接受的痛苦現實。而且，在一夜之間，不論他們是否願意，32,000名諾基亞員工變成了雷德蒙德科技巨頭微軟的一份子。然而，諾基亞的業務從很早之前便開始持續下滑，即使微軟沒有突然出手，以72億美元收購其設備及服務部門，諾基亞也不會有什麼好下場。此外，這筆交易或許能夠給這家芬蘭品牌帶來一線生機，幫助它恢復昔日的勢頭。尤其是如果諾基亞CEO史蒂芬•埃洛普能得到雷德蒙德的最高職位的話，此種可能性就更大了。曾是微軟高管的埃洛普，如今被認爲是最近形勢突變的罪魁禍首。

Nokia, once the top smartphone manufacturer in the world, no longer cracks the top five. Sales of its Lumia line of phones have been growing, but not fast enough to offset massive drops in other products. In the company's most recent quarter, revenue fell 24% compared with the prior year. Its stock has been in decline for years. What happened? There were many causes for the downfall, but arrogance and a misguided focus on growing market share no matter the costs are two big ones. Like BlackBerry (BBRY), Nokia didn't take the iPhone's 2007 debut seriously. The U.S. market -- now home to the two leading smartphone operating systems in the world, Apple's (AAPL) iOS and Google's (GOOG) Android -- was merely an afterthought. And even as the world around them was changing, company execs clung to Symbian, Nokia's aging operating system, for far too long.

諾基亞曾是全球頭號智能手機制造商，如今卻連前五名也進不了。雖然它的非凡（Lumia）系列手機銷量一直在增長，但增長速度不足以抵消其他產品的大幅下跌。最近一個季度，這家公司的收益比之前一年減少了24%。近幾年，它的股票一直在持續下跌。到底發生了什麼？原因或許有很多，但傲慢自大和罔顧成本、一味追求市場份額的錯誤做法是最主要的兩個原因。與黑莓（BlackBerry）一樣，諾基亞並沒有認真對待2007年剛剛面世的iPhone手機。美國市場也是在後來才引起諾基亞的重視。如今，美國市場已經被全球領先的兩大智能手機操作系統，也就是蘋果（iPhone）的iOS和谷歌（Google）的安卓佔領。外面的世界日新月異，諾基亞高管們卻依然堅守着老化的塞班（Symbian）操作系統，結果浪費了太多的時間。

By the time Elop came on board in 2010, Nokia's reputation and market share were already tanking. "What has happened over the last couple of years is there has been a shift from a battle of devices to a war of ecosystems," Elop told an audience of mobile developers at a Qualcomm (QCOM) conference in 2011. Sure enough, soon after he took over the company, the CEO made a series of bold moves, most significantly hitching the company's fate to Microsoft's Windows operating system. The resulting offspring of that marriage is Nokia's Lumia line of phones. And while Elop's loyalties (and ability to lead the Finnish company) have been questioned, the Lumia smartphones are probably the best thing out of Espoo in a long time.

2010年，埃洛普加入諾基亞時，這家公司的聲譽與市場份額都已經遭受重挫。2011年高通（Qualcomm）召開手機開發者大會，埃洛普當時對聽衆們說：“過去兩年的趨勢是從設備競爭轉向生態系統競爭。”果然，埃洛普入主公司之後不久就採取了一系列大膽舉措，其中最重要的就是將公司的命運與微軟的Windows操作系統捆綁在一起。諾基亞非凡系列手機便是兩家公司聯姻的結晶。雖然埃洛普的忠誠（和領導公司的能力）一直備受詬病，但非凡系列智能手機應該是諾基亞很長一段時間來最出色的一款產品。

Elop's tenure at Nokia has been controversial, but unlike insiders he had the ability to divorce the company from Symbian and make a much-needed bet on a more viable operating system (albeit not a very popular one). It may have been too little, too late, and the "turnaround" Elop has subsequently led hasn't been flawless, to say the least. But this week's sale to Microsoft isn't surprising given the trajectory laid out in 2011. Investors are welcoming the deal, sending Nokia's share price up over 40% Tuesday morning.

埃洛普在諾基亞的任職一直飽受爭議，但與內部人員不同，他可以使公司放棄塞班，把賭注押在更可行的（雖然並不是很受歡迎的）操作系統上。雖然這可能是杯水車薪，而且爲時已晚，而且埃洛普隨後帶領公司進行的轉變也並非完美無缺。但考慮到公司從2011年便已註定的發展軌跡，此次公司與微軟的交易也就不值得大驚小怪了。投資者對此次交易表示歡迎，諾基亞公司的股票在週二上午也暴漲超過了40%。

"We view this positively for Nokia, as we believe the path for the Device & Services business was fraught with peril given competitive forces and its limited product acceptance," Maynard Um, a senior analyst with Wells Fargo, wrote in a report. "This sale and the buyout of the Nokia Siemens Network (NSN) joint venture all but completes the transformation of Nokia into a network infrastructure-focused business." (The remaining Nokia will consist of the company's telecom equipment business, mapping technologies and an IP licensing division). What's more, added Um, the sale puts more "financial muscle" behind the combined Microsoft-Nokia portfolio of products. That is, of course, if Microsoft plays its cards right.

富國銀行（Wells Fargo）高級分析師梅納德•阿姆在一份報告中寫道：“我們認爲，此次交易對諾基亞更爲有利。因爲，我們認爲鑑於激烈的競爭和有限的產品接受度，諾基亞設備與服務部門的未來充滿了風險。此次交易和收回合資公司諾基亞西門子公司（Nokia Siemens Network，NSN）將使諾基亞完成向網絡基礎設施業務的轉變。”（諾基亞的剩餘業務包括通訊設備業務、地圖技術和專利許可部門）。阿姆補充說，更重要的是，這筆交易將增強微軟-諾基亞合作的產品組合的財政實力。當然，前提是微軟打好手中的牌。

The software giant doesn't have a good track record when it comes to hardware. Or acquisitions. But Elop's return into the fold could be helpful to the future of Nokia's handset line. Current Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer recently announced he will be stepping down in the coming months, and many have weighed in on the list of potential successors. It's no surprise that Elop is now a top contender as well. The former insider knows the company well (he once ran its Office division). But after three years at Nokia, he also knows the handset manufacturing world much better than most Microsoft execs. As part of Microsoft's acquisition, Elop will step down as CEO of Nokia and take on the devices and services division at Microsoft, a big chunk of which will be made up of the former Nokia business. That means Elop may become the handset business' (and former Nokia employees') greatest hope. If he becomes CEO of Microsoft in the months to come, that may bode even better for the handset manufacturer formerly known as Nokia, painful as that admission may be to the Finns.

軟件業巨頭微軟在硬件或者收購方面的成績並不盡如人意。不過，埃洛普迴歸微軟或許會對諾基亞手機業務的未來有所幫助。最近，微軟現任CEO史蒂夫•鮑爾默宣佈將在未來幾個月內退休，許多人都成了潛在繼任者的有力競爭者。埃洛普也是熱門人選，這並不奇怪。埃洛普曾經是微軟的老人，對微軟非常瞭解（曾負責Office部門）。而且在諾基亞任職三年之後，相比大多數微軟高管，他更熟悉手機生產。作爲微軟收購的條件之一，埃洛普將辭去諾基亞CEO的職務，擔任微軟設備及服務部門的負責人，其中大部分由原先的諾基亞業務組成。這意味着，埃洛普可能成爲手機業務（和前諾基亞員工）最大的希望。如果他能在幾個月後成爲微軟CEO，對於原來爲諾基亞生產手機的製造商而言，或許是更大的福音，儘管芬蘭人在心理上很難接受。