科技資訊:微軟Surface能否走紅?

Microsoft's Surface tablet is, for now, aptly named. We know what the product looks like, but don't know how it will perform, or sell, until it gets into consumers' hands. Reviewers can only debate the features (USB port; kickstand; thin keyboard; whoop-de-doo) and analysts will resort to new forms of bet-hedging ("execution will be key").

眼下來看，微軟(Microsoft)Surface平板電腦的名字很貼切。我們知道產品長什麼樣，但在它到消費者手中之前，我們不知道它的性能或銷量如何。評論者只能辯論各種功能（USB接口；支架；薄鍵盤；諸如此類），而分析師將求助於可進可退的新套話（"執行將是關鍵"）。

And the tablet has to perform beautifully because of an ugly catch 22: mobile devices become popular with consumers largely because of the available applications, but app developers only work on devices that are popular with consumers. The fact that it will run Microsoft Office's software suite, with which cubicle dwellers worldwide are sentenced to spend their days, does not mean Surface can crack this problem.

這款平板電腦必須有出色的表現，原因在於一對可惡的矛盾：一方面，移動設備能否受到消費者歡迎，在很大程度上要看可獲得的應用程序有多少；另一方面，應用開發者只針對人氣較高的設備開發應用。雖然Surface將運行全世界白領員工不得不使用的微軟Office套裝軟件，但這並不意味着這款平板電腦能夠解決上述矛盾。

Pricing will also be crucial. Microsoft's Lumia smartphone, released with Nokia, proved that a solid product with differentiating features can still struggle with consumers, especially if it is too dear. Microsoft, because it is making the Surface under its own brand, will have complete control of price. So far, it has said only that prices will be "competitive" with existing products. Why not discount aggressively, to break open the market? Assuming a $400 cost for the lower-end Windows RT version, the company could sell 10m of them at $300 (a big discount over the cheapest iPad) while sacrificing all of 4 per cent of pre-tax income.

定價也將很關鍵。微軟與諾基亞(Nokia)合作打造的Lumia智能手機表明，有着與衆不同功能的優秀產品，仍有可能難以獲得消費者的青睞，尤其是如果這款產品很貴的話。由於微軟藉助自己的品牌推出Surface，因此該公司對定價有着完全的控制權。迄今微軟僅表示，Surface的價格與現有產品相比將"具有競爭力"。爲什麼不推出咄咄逼人的折扣來打開市場呢？假設低端Windows RT版本的成本是400美元，那麼微軟能夠以300美元（比最便宜的iPad還便宜很多）的價格銷售1000萬臺，同時犧牲全部4%的稅前利潤。

Consumers tend to equate price and value, and Microsoft has a fledgling brand to protect. More important, Microsoft must consider the global PC makers, from Hewlett-Packardto Lenovo. They will not make Windows tablets if they are competing against a subsidised Surface. Microsoft will have to think carefully before alienating the partners who have helped make their software franchise one of the most profitable businesses of all time.

消費者往往把價格和價值等同起來，而微軟也需要保護初生的Surface品牌。更重要的是，微軟必須考慮從惠普(Hewlett-Packard)到聯想(Lenovo)的全球個人電腦(PC)製造商。若要與得到補貼的Surface展開競爭，他們將不會生產Windows平板電腦。在疏遠那些讓微軟軟件成爲史上盈利最豐厚行業之一的合作伙伴之前，微軟需要三思而行。