Facebook用戶數量已趨於飽和
Facebook Inc. went public last month on its prospects for growth. But in some key areas, the social network's growth rates are already maturing.
憑藉着公司未來的增長前景，Facebook上個月得以上市。但是在一些關鍵領域，這家社交網站的增長已經開始趨於飽和。In particular, Facebook's user growth rate in the U.S. is slowing sharply. In April, U.S. unique visitors to the website increased to 158 million, up just 5% from a year earlier, according to research firm comScore Inc.
尤其需要指出的是，Facebook在美國的用戶增長速度正在迅速放緩。據研究公司comScore Inc.的數據，Facebook在美國的用戶數量4月份增長至1.58億，這比一年前的水平僅增加了5%。That was Facebook's lowest U.S. user growth rate since comScore began tracking the data in 2008 and was down from 24% growth in April 2011 and 89% in April 2010, comScore said.
comScore表示，自從該公司2008年追蹤Facebook的數據以來，4月份是Facebook美國用戶數增速最低的一個月。相比之下，2011年4月的同比增幅爲24%，2010年4月爲89%。
At the same time, the growth rate in the amount of time people spend on the social network -- otherwise known as engagement is also decelerating. In April, Facebook users spent more than six hours a month on the site, up 16% from a year earlier. But that compares with a 23% increase in 2011 and 57% in 2010, comScore found.
ReutersFacebook在美國用戶數量的增長正在急劇放緩。與此同時，人們花在這家社交網站上的時間雖然還在增長，的增速也已下降。4月份，Facebook用戶平均每月在該網站上花費的時間爲6小時以上，較一年以前的水平提高了6%。不過comScore發現，相比之下，2011年同期的增幅爲23%，2010年爲57%。
In some ways, the slowdown is to be expected. Facebook has already grabbed 71% of all 221 million U.S. Internet users, according to comScore. At the same time, people are on Facebook longer than any other site. The more than six hours a month that people spend on the social network exceeds the over four hours a month they spend on all Google sites including YouTube, and the 3 1/2 hours they spend on Yahoo sites, comScore said.
從某種程度上講，這些減速現象完全在意料之中。根據comScore的數據，美國2.21億互聯網用戶中，已經有71%註冊了Facebook。同時，人們在Facebook上花費的時間也比其他網站多。與Facebook每月6小時以上的水平相比，美國人每月花在包括YouTube在內所有谷歌網站上的時間爲4個小時以上，而花在雅虎網站上的時間爲三個半小時。With such a dominant presence and so much time already spent on the site, "declining growth rates are a natural part of the growth cycle,"said comScore analyst Andrew Lipsman.
comScore的分析師利普斯曼(Andrew Lipsman)說，鑑於Facebook已經贏得了絕大多數的互聯網用戶，並且用戶已經在其網站上花費了如此多的時間，增長速度的下降是其增長週期中一個必然階段。Still, the falling rates are significant given that Facebook has framed itself as a growth story to Wall Street.
儘管如此，考慮到Facebook已經向華爾街誇下海口，其增長速度的下降仍然非同小可。When it went public last month, the Menlo Park, Calif, company commanded a valuation of more than $100 billion, partly because investors expect Facebook to grow at triple-digit and double-digit rates much like Google Inc. did after its 2004 initial public offering of stock. Yet Facebook's shares are off 29% since they priced at $38 ending at $27.10 on the Nasdaq Stock Market at 4 p.m. Friday and the company's market capitalization has sunk to $73.17 billion.
這家位於加州的公司上個月上市時的估值達到了1,000億美元以上，其部分原因是投資者預計Facebook將實現三位數或兩位數的增長，就像谷歌在2004年首次公開募股之後所經歷的那樣。然而自從以每股38美元的價格公開發行股票以來，Facebook的股價已經下跌了29%。上週五，Facebook在納斯達克市場(Nasdaq Stock Market)的收盤價爲每股27.10美元，公司的市值也下降到了731.7億美元。Indeed, comScore's numbers illustrate how little room there is left for Facebook to grow in the U.S., which is the most important and lucrative market for the social network's two revenue-paying constituencies: advertisers and developers.
事實上，comScore的數據表明Facebook在美國已經幾乎沒有繼續增長的空間，而美國市場對於廣告客戶和程序開發者來說是最重要和最有利可圖的市場，廣告客戶和程序開發商又是Facebook的兩個主要收入來源。
Approximately 56% of Facebook's 2011 ad revenue of $3.1 billion came from the U.S. alone, according to the company's regulatory filings. "The U.S. is a dominant source of revenue for Facebook," said eMarketer analyst Debra Aho Williamson, who estimates that this year the nation will account for 51% of Facebook's revenue.
Facebook提交給監管機構的備案文件顯示，該公司2011年獲得的31億美元廣告收入中，大約56%來自美國。eMarketer的分析師威廉姆森(Debra Aho Williamson)說，美國是Facebook收入的最主要來源。他估計，Facebook今年的營收中將有51%來自美國。Morningstar analyst Rick Summer said comparing Facebook's growth rates to Google's post-IPO might not be an apt analogy given that Google went public at an earlier stage of the Internet's development. "Google had the advantage of increases in ad pricing, increases in the number of Internet users and stealing market share from other Web properties," he said. By contrast, he said, "Facebook is already a dominant Web platform and they've got significant Internet penetration today. Ad pricing is clearly going to be where their growth is going to come from."
Alison Yin for The Wall Street Journal從某種程度上講，這些減速現象完全在意料之中。根據comScore的數據，美國2.21億互聯網用戶中，已經有71%註冊了Facebook。圖爲上個月，Facebook加州門洛帕克辦公園區中的員工。晨星公司(Morningstar)的分析師薩莫(Rick Summer)說，拿Facebook的增長率與谷歌上市後的增長率作對比可能並不合適，因爲谷歌是在互聯網發展的較早階段進行IPO的。薩莫說，谷歌當時擁有諸如廣告定價存在上漲空間、互聯網用戶數量正不斷增長以及可從其它門戶網站搶奪市場份額等優勢。他說，相比之下，Facebook目前已是一個居主導地位的互聯網平臺，它的互聯網滲透率已經很高。只有在擁有業務增長空間的地方，廣告定價纔有上漲空間。Mr. Summer said he expects Facebook to be able to grow into its valuation over the long term. In the short term, however, he said the slowing user and engagement growth rates as well as slower ad-revenue growth are likely to pressure the stock for another year or two.
薩莫說，他認爲長期來看Facebook有能力證明其估值名副其實。不過他也說，短期而言，用戶數量和用戶在網站上停留時間(以及廣告收入)的增長放緩可能會讓Facebook的股票再承受一到兩年的壓力。Facebook still has growth sources. The comScore numbers don't take into account overseas markets and the mobile sector, which are categories where Facebook has room to expand. In its regulatory filings, the company has said it is experiencing substantial growth in countries such as India and Brazil, although ad rates in those countries are lower than in the U.S.
Facebook仍有增長點。comScore的數據不包括海外市場和手機上網用戶方面的情況，而Facebook在這兩個領域都有擴張空間。Facebook在遞交給監管機構的備案文件中說，公司在印度和巴西等國的業務正迅速增長，不過這些國家的廣告價格要低於美國。Facebook is still experiencing growth in the use of its site on mobile phones. In March, the company said its monthly mobile usage world-wide rose to 488 million users from 425 million in December.
通過手機登錄Facebook的人仍在增長。Facebook說，今年3月在全球範圍內通過手機登錄Facebook的用戶從去年12月的4.25億增至4.88億。Facebook acknowledged, however, that its mobile growth hasn't led to an increase in ad revenue because it earns almost no money from mobile ads. Last week, the company introduced new ways for advertisers to buy mobile ads.
然而Facebook也承認，移動用戶的增長並沒有帶動廣告收入的增長，因爲公司從移動廣告中幾乎賺不到錢。上週，Facebook向廣告客戶推出了購買移動廣告的新方式。It is still unclear whether Facebook's mobile growth is coming at the expense of personal computer usage, said comScore's Mr. Lipsman. ComScore began tracking mobile use of Facebook only several months ago, so there are no clear trends in the data.
利普斯曼說，目前尚不清楚Facebook移動用戶的增長是否是以個人電腦用戶的減少爲代價的。ComScore幾個月前纔開始追蹤Facebook的移動用戶數據，所以數據中還看不到明確的趨勢。Some advertising-agency executives said that Facebook's slowing U.S. user growth rate isn't a concern as long as the company can figure out how to give marketers more opportunities to reach users.
一些廣告公司高管說，不必擔心Facebook美國用戶增長率的放緩，只要該公司能想辦法給廣告客戶提供更多接觸用戶的機會就行。"The story line is less about the users themselves,"said Sarah Hofstetter, president of digital ad agency 360i, a unit of Dentsu Inc. "It's more about how they monetize their user base."
日本電通(Dentsu Inc.)旗下子公司、數字廣告公司360i的總裁霍夫施泰特(Sarah Hofstetter)說，這件事跟用戶本身的關係不大，主要在於如何將Facebook的用戶基礎貨幣化。
Others say that not all activity on Facebook takes place directly on . For example, websites and apps let Facebook users sign in with their Facebook identity, so users might be interacting with Facebook even when they aren't on the website.
有人說，Facebook上的活動並非都直接發生在其網站上。例如，Facebook用戶可以用自己的Facebook身份登錄其它網站和應用程序，這樣即使沒有登錄Facebook網站，他們可能也在與Facebook進行互動。"That can understate the real engagement on Facebook," said Brendan Wallace, co-chief executive of San Francisco-based professional networking site Identified, where users can log in with their Facebook user names and passwords.
舊金山職業社交網站Identified的聯席首席執行長華萊士(Brendan Wallace)說，這可能會給用戶在Facebook的實際停留時間打個折扣。人們可用自己在Facebook的用戶名和密碼登錄Identified網站。Still, Mr. Wallace said it is important for developers to take note of Facebook's slowing user growth rate.
但華萊士也說，程序開發商應注意到Facebook用戶數增速放緩這個現象。Identified, he said, caters primarily to young users, who are a large part of Facebook's audience. But for products that cater to older audiences, Mr. Wallace said Facebook might turn out to be "just one of many platforms that developers consider integrating with."
他說，Identified主要迎合年輕用戶，而這些人是Facebook的主要用戶。但他也說，在開發那些迎合年紀較長用戶的產品時，Facebook也許只是程序開發商考慮與之整合的衆多平臺中的一個而已。
