繁榮成爲德國不能承受之重
When last did a nation collapse under the unbearable weight of its prosperity? For a visitor in Berlin, Germany’s coalition talks straddled the line between complacency and smugness. Elsewhere, European politicians are struggling to balance the books by cutting education spending and capping pensions. Angela Merkel and her prospective coalition partners spent a fruitless month arguing about how to share out the rich spoils of economic success.
If you believe the headlines, the failure of the chancellor’s Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party, the CSU, to strike a deal with the economically liberal Free Democrats and the leftish Greens has plunged the nation into Crisis. No one has told the well-heeled Christmas shoppers crowding Berlin’s stores. Wages are high, unemployment is low and the government is awash with cash. Crisis, Germans are asking, what crisis?
如果你相信這些頭條新聞，德國總理領導的的基督教民主聯盟（CDU，簡稱：基民盟）及其巴伐利亞州的姊妹黨基督教社會聯盟（CSU，簡稱：基社盟）未能與奉行經濟自由立場的自由民主黨（Free Democratic Party，簡稱：自民黨）和左派的綠黨(Greens)敲定協議一事，已經使這個國家陷入危機。沒人把這件事告訴擠在柏林的商店內爲聖誕節購物的富人。工資高、失業率低，政府現金充裕。德國人在問：危機？什麼危機？The country has turned inward as well as rightward. The politics of plenty might have persuaded an earlier generation of postwar politicians to raise their sights to the future of Europe. Not this one. Now what you catch is a visible irritation with the troubles of Germany’s less fortunate partners in the eurozone. If they want to succeed, they should jolly well behave more like, well, Germany.
這個國家已經變得自我封閉，已經向“右”轉。經濟富足造就的政治局勢，可能說服了早先的一代戰後政治家把目光投向歐洲的未來。現在這一代政治家可不是這樣。現在，對於德國在歐元區內運氣沒那麼好的夥伴國面臨的麻煩，你看到的是顯而易見的惱怒。如果他們想成功，他們應該表現得更像，呃，德國。
What was it that Ms Merkel said not so long ago about picking up the torch for liberal democratic values and working with French president Emmanuel Macron to advance the cause of European integration? By the account of those inside the talks, the chancellor now professes indifference. A coalition agreement should say nothing to offend Mr Macron directly. On the other hand, it need not make any commitments.
默克爾不久前說的——接過自由民主價值觀的火炬、和法國總統埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)一起推進歐洲一體化事業——代表了什麼？據談判內部人士說，默克爾如今主張的是冷處理。組閣協議不應該包含任何直接冒犯馬克龍的內容。另一方面，它無需作出任何承諾。The breakdown of the talks was a shock to Berlin’s political establishment. A deal would be reached, everyone had previously agreed, because the alternatives of a minority government or another election were unthinkable. The Brexit vote in the UK, Donald Trump in the US, even the success of the nativist Alternative for Germany in September’s elections — these are things that should have taught us that politics is no longer played by the old rules.
談判破裂震驚了柏林政界。每個人之前都認爲，會達成組閣協議，因爲少數派政府和再舉行一次大選這兩個替代選擇都是不可想象的。英國退歐公投、美國的唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)、甚至奉行本土主義的德國新選擇黨(Alternative for Germany)在9月選舉中的成功——這些都應該告訴我們，政治的遊戲規則變了。Germany may have to get used to a new dynamic. By taking nearly 13 per cent of the vote, the AfD changed the arithmetic of traditional coalition building. Add its share to the 9 per cent score of the formerly communist Die Linke and more than a fifth of the seats in the Bundestag are now occupied by MPs shunned by the political mainstream. The permutations for workable coalitions have shrunk accordingly.
德國可能不得不習慣一種新節奏。德國新選擇黨拿到了接近13%的選票，這改變了傳統的組閣算法。再加上前共產主義政黨德國左派黨(Die Linke)拿到的9%的選票，德國聯邦議院(Bundestag)超過五分之一的席位如今都屬於被政治主流閃避的議員。可行的組閣方案也相應減少了。Political calculation on the part of the Free Democrats rather than irreconcilable policy collisions with the Christian Democrats and Greens scuppered Ms Merkel’s hopes for a Jamaica coalition — so called because the three parties’ colours match that of the Caribbean nation’s flag. There were real differences — about immigration controls, climate change, Europe, and tax and spending — but a mix of compromises and fudges had all but closed even the gaps between the Greens and the CSU.
扼殺默克爾組建“牙買加聯盟”（聯盟中三黨的代表色與這個加勒比國家的國旗顏色一致）希望的是自民黨方面的政治盤算，而不是它與基民盟和綠黨之間什麼不可調和的政策衝突。它們之間確實在移民控制、氣候變化、歐洲一體化以及稅收和開支等問題上存在分歧，但是就連綠黨和基社盟之間的分歧也幾乎快要憑藉一系列妥協和敷衍彌合了。
