卡斯特羅思想 仍在影響古巴

Fidel Castro would rather have been born in a bigger country than Cuba.

菲德爾.卡斯特羅(Fidel Castro)希望自己出生在一個比古巴更大的國家。

He knew Cuba’s economy would remain insignificant but he figured out how to make Cuba and himself noticed.

他知道古巴經濟無論怎樣發展都無足輕重，但他清楚如何讓古巴和自己引起注意。

No one man has shaped a country in modern times like Fidel.

當今時代，沒有一個人在塑造一個國家方面趕得上菲德爾。

When he said ‘this time the revolution is for real’, he meant it.

當他說這一次革命是當真的時，他真的是那個意思。

All that was in 1959.

這一切都發生在1959年。

Now Cuba has lost its most famous son.

如今，古巴失去了最出名的孩子。

The difference is that Fidel, his ideas and methods stayed around for more than 50 years.

差別在於，菲德爾、他的思想和道路延續了50多年。

Unlike Nelson Mandela, he never stepped down to give others a chance.

和納爾遜.曼德拉(Nelson Mandela)不同，他從未卸下權力把機會留給別人。

And in the past decade his brother Raúl has been left to try to make Fidel’s system work in the 21st century.

過去10年，他的弟弟勞爾(Raúl)受命嘗試讓菲德爾留下的制度在21世紀繼續運轉。

For Cubans, Fidel was how they learnt the alphabet — F for Fidel, Y for Yanqui.

對古巴人來說，菲德爾是他們最先學會的字母——F代表菲德爾，Y代表美國佬(Yanqui)。

He was how they thought, how they saw the outside world and how they earned their living.

他們如何思考、如何觀察外部世界、如何謀生，都要通過菲德爾。

His government made them dependent because they all worked for it.

他的政府讓人們變得依賴，因爲他們全都爲政府工作。

It was Fidel or nothing.

要麼擁護菲德爾，要麼一無所有。

Socialism or Death.

要麼選擇社會主義，要麼選擇死亡。

He never suggested he would ask the people what they wanted.

他從未提出他會問古巴人民想要什麼。

He told them and they believed.

他說什麼，他們就得相信什麼。

Now it is not clear what the ‘or’ is for Cuba.

現在不清楚古巴的另一種選擇是什麼。

Fidel proved a small country could stand up to its big neighbour and make a difference in spreading an ideology that offered hope to the poor.

卡斯特羅證明了，一個小國可以對抗強大的鄰國，可以在傳播給予窮人希望的意識形態方面有所作爲。

The leaders attending his funeral will show that many still remember those days.

出席卡斯特羅葬禮的各國領導人將證明，許多人仍然記得那些日子。

His imagination was matched by his ruthlessness.

他的冷酷無情和想象力一樣突出。

Just as he improved life for the poor and illiterate, he ruined the lives of many other Cubans who had something to lose.

在改善了窮人、文盲的生活水平之際，他也毀掉了其他許多有點資產的古巴人的生活。

Their choice was to accept repression or leave — many did.

他們只能選擇接受壓制或是離去——許多人選擇離開。

And Fidel’s major problem was that he never engineered a national economy prosperous enough to provide for his big plans.

卡斯特羅的主要問題在於，他從未使古巴國民經濟繁榮到足以實現他的宏大計劃。

He used other countries’ money to fund his revolution, first the Soviet Union, and latterly Venezuela.

他利用別國的資金爲自己的革命買單——首先是蘇聯，近年是委內瑞拉。

He used the US embargo to garner international sympathy.

他利用美國對古巴的貿易禁運博取國際同情。

So the question now about the ‘or’ is where does the money come from?

因此，現在關於古巴的另一種選擇的問題是，未來錢從哪裏來？

Cuba in 2016 offers little of the freshness and ambition that filled the air in 1959.

2016年的古巴早已沒有了1959年那種瀰漫全國的生機和雄心。

Though Cuba’s education and healthcare are still widely admired in the developing world, Fidel has bequeathed a country that is not projecting a clear vision.

雖然古巴的教育和醫療仍受到發展中世界的廣泛敬佩，但卡斯特羅留下的是一個不能投射清晰願景的國家。

Its main earners of foreign currency are tourism, medical services and remittances from families mainly in the US.

古巴獲取外匯主要依靠旅遊、醫療服務以及主要旅居美國的古巴人給家人的匯款。

That is not enough to fund socialist largesse.

這不足以支撐慷慨的社會主義事業。

And the only alternative seems to be a dismantling of some revolutionary controls, promoting foreign investment and the private sector to allow ordinary Cubans to get rich and build their lives.

唯一的出路似乎在於解除部分革命控制措施，推動外商投資和私營部門，允許普通古巴人致富，打造自己的美好人生。

Fidel always knew this would lessen their dependence on the government.

菲德爾當然知道，這樣將減少他們對政府的依賴。

Raúl has said there will be no shock therapy in Cuba.

勞爾已表示，古巴不會採取休克療法。

He knows that Fidel’s revolution would perhaps crumble under a scramble to make up for the years of economic decline.

他知道，急於在短時間內扭轉多年來的經濟衰敗，可能讓菲德爾的革命毀於一旦。

He has vowed to step down in 2018 but that may now be rethought.

他曾誓言在2018年卸任，但現在或許會重新考慮這一決定。

Without Fidel, Raúl could decide that the government’s shackles are holding Cuba back, and accepting new ideas would no longer be an embarrassment.

菲德爾去世後，勞爾可能得出結論：政府的枷鎖正在阻礙古巴進步，接受新思想將不再令人尷尬。

But the one-party system with thousands of bureaucrats trained to stifle change is not fitted to promote a smooth transition to a new economic rule book.

但是，擁有成千上萬依靠扼殺變革爲生的官僚的一黨制，不適合推進向着新經濟模式的平穩過渡。

Cuba is not yet Castroless.

古巴尚未實現去卡斯特羅化。

Beyond Raúl there are sons, sons-in-law and a daughter, Mariela.

除了勞爾，還有他的兒子、女婿以及女兒瑪麗拉(Mariela)。

For years to come there will always be the Fidel effect.

菲德爾的影響將在未來延續很多年。

Somehow Cuba has to emerge from all that and find new ideas that will not betray the revolution’s legacy.

古巴必須設法擺脫這一切，同時找到不會背叛革命遺產的新思想。

Fidel detested the Chinese model and Raúl has not accepted that it is good for Cuba and for ordinary Cubans to get rich.

菲德爾不喜歡中國模式，勞爾也並未認可中國模式對古巴及普通古巴人致富有好處。

But without Fidel, Cuba will be less likely to be given a free pass with other countries.

但菲德爾去世後，其他國家將不太可能再讓古巴搭便車。

Cuba will lose its allure and will have to talk the international language of business.

古巴將失去吸引力，不得不學會用國際商業語言商談。

Fidel has left a country trying to disentangle itself from its over-dependence on Venezuela and use the new US relationship to help revive its economy.

菲德爾留下的古巴，正嘗試擺脫對委內瑞拉的過度依賴，並利用與美國新建立的關係幫助重振國內經濟。

He opposed both of these options.

對於這兩個選項，菲德爾生前都表示反對。

Now Donald Trump, despite the widespread popularity of the Obama measures, seems keen to undo the Obama effect and side with Fidel.

如今，雖然奧巴馬政府的措施受到了廣泛歡迎，但唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)似乎熱衷於逆轉奧巴馬的政策，站在菲德爾一邊。

Just when Cuba has a chance to move ahead a familiar scenario looms.

就在古巴有機會向前邁進之際，熟悉的一幕正在浮出水面。

Fidel would have been amused and perhaps rather pleased.

菲德爾對此應會感到好笑，或許還會相當高興。