美國總統大選 準備好迎接特朗普總統了嗎
German magazine Der Spiegel sparked international controversy in February when it published an editorial under the headline “Donald Trump is the world’s most dangerous man”.
今年2月，德國雜誌《明鏡週刊》(Der Spiegel)發表了一篇題爲《唐納德•特朗普是世界上最危險的人》(Donald Trump is the world’s most dangerous man)的社論，在國際上引發爭議。
Within three months of the publication of the article, Mr Trump has defied critics and pundits to become the presumptive Republican candidate in the US presidential election this November.
在文章發表後的3個月內，雖然遭受批評者和評論人士的抨擊，但特朗普仍然成爲了今年11月美國總統大選的共和黨假定被提名人（編者注：據美國媒體5月26日報道，特朗普已獲得被黨內提名所需的選舉人票）。
Most observers — including the global asset management industry — doubted the US billionaire would ever get this far.
大多數觀察人士（包括全球資產管理行業）都沒有想到這位美國億萬富翁能夠走到這一步。
But his unexpected ascent in America’s political hierarchy has raised some difficult questions for many of the world’s largest investors about just how dangerous, or beneficial, he could be for their portfolios.
但是對許多全球最大的投資者而言，特朗普在美國政治體系中的意外崛起，引發了難以解答的問題——他對於他們的投資組合有多麼危險，或者有多大益處。
Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund manager, believes Mr Trump is “all but certain” to receive the Republican nomination at the party’s convention in July, now that his two closest rivals, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, have dropped out of the race.
全球最大的債券基金管理公司——太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO)認爲，既然特朗普的兩個最大的競爭對手特德•克魯斯(Ted Cruz)和約翰•卡西奇(John Kasich)全都退選，那麼他“幾乎肯定會”在今年7月的共和黨全國大會上獲得共和黨總統候選人提名。
But Libby Cantrill, executive vice-president at the Californian asset manager, believes Mr Trump’s triumph provides few clues to investors about how they should react.
但這家加州資產管理公司的執行副總裁莉比•坎特里爾(Libby Cantrill)表示，特朗普的勝利爲投資者的投資策略提供不了什麼線索。
“A Trump candidacy does not make it easier for investors to anticipate the possible economic and market implications of a Trump presidency if he were to win the US general election in November,” she says.
她說：“特朗普獲得候選人提名並不會讓投資者更容易預測，假如特朗普在今年11月贏得大選，可能帶來什麼經濟和市場影響。”
James Clunie, manager of the absolute return fund at Jupiter, the UK-listed asset manager, believes international investors have been woefully slow to consider the ramifications of a Trump victory in November.
英國上市資產管理公司Jupiter的絕對回報基金的經理詹姆斯•克盧尼(James Clunie)認爲，國際投資者在考慮特朗普11月贏得大選的影響方面遲緩得可悲。
“A lot of people in the investment community think it is so inconceivable he could become president that [they] are not thinking about hedges. That is, collectively, a big mistake.
“許多投資人士認爲他當選總統是不可想象的，因此沒有考慮對衝。把他們合在一起來看，這是一個嚴重的錯誤。”
“[The US election] should be the talk of the town, but it’s not. Trump is a good wake-up call to stop thinking everything is fine [in the US], as we have done for the past six years. It is a good time to think about fragility in the States.”
“（美國大選）本應是熱議的話題，但它現在不是。特朗普是一記很好的警鐘，提醒人們不要以爲（美國）還像我們過去6年來認爲的那樣一切都好。現在是時候考慮美國的脆弱了。”
To prepare for the possibility of Mr Trump winning in November, some asset managers are beginning to take a careful look at the potential impact of the controversial policies the US businessman has endorsed so far.
爲了應對特朗普今年11月贏得大選的可能性，一些資產管理公司開始認真考慮這位美國商人迄今支持的有爭議政策的潛在影響。
These include pursuing a protectionist economic agenda by scrapping the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, and imposing high tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports.
這些政策包括丟棄擬議的《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)來實施保護主義經濟議程，並對來自中國和墨西哥的進口產品徵收高關稅。
Mr Trump has also indicated he wants to cut the top rate of corporate income tax from 39 per cent to 15 per cent, but will clamp down on the use of “inversion” deals that allow companies to shift their tax bases overseas.
特朗普還暗示稱，他希望將企業所得稅最高稅率從39%降至15%，但會打擊讓公司將稅基轉到海外的“稅收倒置”協議。
Both Mr Trump and Hillary Clinton, the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination, have pledged to plough money into infrastructure, and to ditch a tax break worth billions of dollars to private equity and hedge fund managers.
特朗普和民主黨總統候選人提名領跑者希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)都承諾向基礎設施投入大量資金，並取消給私人股本和對衝基金公司的價值數十億美元的稅收優惠。
Some investors highlight healthcare as a sector that could suffer under Mr Trump, who has repeatedly promised to abolish Obamacare, the law that expanded access to care and the biggest medical programme for the poor in the US.
一些投資者強調，如果特朗普當選總統，醫療行業可能遭受影響，因爲他多次承諾要廢除“奧巴馬醫改”(Obamacare)。奧巴馬醫改擴大了醫療服務和美國最大醫保計劃對窮人的覆蓋範圍。
Other fund managers suggest shorting container shipping companies to prepare for a Trump presidency, as a break-up of trade agreements and the imposition of trade barriers could hurt trade, or betting against listed hedge funds and private equity firms in anticipation of more stringent taxation.
其他基金公司提議做空集裝箱航運公司以應對特朗普當選總統的可能性，因爲廢除貿易協定和施加貿易壁壘可能傷害貿易；或者做空上市的對衝基金和私人股本公司，因爲預計特朗普上臺將會推出更爲嚴厲的稅法。
Mr Clunie recalls the run-up to the 2014 Scottish referendum on independence from the rest of the UK, when few financiers were prepared for the possibility of Scotland opting for independence.
克盧尼回憶起2014年蘇格蘭就是否脫離英國舉行公投前的那段時期，當時很少有金融人士爲蘇格蘭可能選擇獨立做準備。
He took out a short position against Caixabank, the Spanish lender, before the referendum, based on the theory that if Scotland voted to leave the UK, it would increase the likelihood of Catalonia, a wealthy Spanish region with its own language and parliament, becoming independent.
他在公投前建立了對西班牙Caixabank銀行的空頭倉位，理由是如果蘇格蘭選擇脫離英國，就會增加加泰羅尼亞獨立的可能性。加泰羅尼亞是西班牙的一個擁有自己語言和議會的富裕地區。
Although Scotland chose to remain in the UK, the referendum was much closer than pollsters originally anticipated. Mr Clunie believes the US election could yield similar surprises.
儘管最後蘇格蘭選擇留在英國，但公投結果顯示支持脫英和支持留英陣營的比例要比民意調查機構最初預計的接近得多。克盧尼相信，美國大選可能同樣出人意料。
He has not found another “non-obvious” hedge to prepare his portfolio for a Trump presidency. But he points out other commentators have made the tongue-in-cheek suggestion of buying Canadian residential property on the basis that Americans could “flee” north of the border if Mr Trump wins.
他還沒有找到另一種“非明顯”對衝策略，使他的投資組合對特朗普當選總統做好準備，但他指出，其他評論人士半開玩笑地提議，鑑於如果特朗普贏得大選，美國人可能“逃往”邊境北部，人們應該購買加拿大的房地產。
Other investors point to the many sectors that could flourish under Mr Trump’s leadership, including banking and defence.
還有投資者指出有許多行業可能因特朗普當選總統而繁榮發展，包括銀行業和防務業。
Michael Gregory, chief investment officer at Highland Alternative Investors, the Dallas-based asset manager, says: “Less aggressive banking regulation would be a lift for the big banks. Trump sees banks as having a material role in economic growth and lending, and has called for the repeal of Dodd-Frank [the financial regulation legislation].
達拉斯資產管理公司Highland Alternative Investors的首席投資官邁克爾•格雷戈裏(Michael Gregory)表示：“銀行業監管的激進程度降低將對大銀行是個提振。特朗普認爲銀行在經濟增長和放貸中扮演着重要角色，並呼籲廢除（金融監管法）《多德-弗蘭克法》(Dodd-Frank Act)。”
“We could expect defence and aerospace spending to boom during a Trump presidency as he looks to strengthen the US military. Increased cyber security and intelligence networks will also serve to benefit defence IT and communications.”
“我們可以預計防務和航空航天支出將在特朗普任總統期間出現大幅增長，因爲他希望增強美國軍力。增強網絡安全和情報網絡也將讓防務IT和通信行業受益。”
Yet most fund managers are reluctant to begin putting hedges in place and fine-tuning portfolios before they have a clearer sense of Mr Trump’s final position on issues such as taxation, infrastructure and healthcare.
然而，大多數基金公司不願在更清晰地瞭解到特朗普在稅收、基礎設施和醫療領域的最終立場之前，開始建立對衝和微調投資組合。
The businessman’s existing policies are widely viewed as inconsistent and contradictory, making it difficult to predict what his ultimate position will be, although some suspect his final stance will be softer than the politician currently implies.
人們普遍認爲，特朗普當前的政策反覆無常且相互矛盾，這讓人們很難預測他最終的立場是什麼，儘管一些人懷疑這位政客的最終立場將比他目前顯示出的溫和。
Martin Moeller, head of equities at UBP, the Swiss private bank, says: “The campaign has focused on the entertaining and ridiculous statements, [but], once elected, there will be less need for media attention and more focus on finding consensus with other politicians to get things done.
瑞士私人銀行UBP的股票主管馬丁•莫勒(Martin Moeller)表示：“特朗普在選舉中致力於發佈有趣而荒誕的聲明，（但是）一旦當選，吸引媒體關注的必要性就會下降，他會更加致力於找到與其他政客的共識來做成事情。”
“I think President Trump would be more realistic and reasonable than Campaigner Trump.”
“我認爲‘總統特朗普’將比‘競選人特朗普’更加現實和理性。”
Investors are also torn over whether a Trump presidency is so unlikely that it is not worth preparing for or whether it is a viable possibility that warrants careful positioning.
投資者也產生了分歧，一種觀點認爲特朗普非常不可能當選總統，因此沒有必要做準備，另一種觀點是特朗普當選總統具有現實可能性，因此有必要認真建立相應頭寸。
Political surprises have abounded over the past two years, from the rise of the far-left Syriza party in Greece last year, to the UK Conservative party’s outright win in the 2015 general election. These unexpected developments have delivered painful lessons for investors and politicians alike.
過去兩年裏發生了太多的政治意外事件，從去年希臘激進左翼聯盟(Syriza)的崛起，到英國保守黨在2015年大選中大獲全勝。這些意外發展給投資者和政客帶來了慘痛的教訓。
Specifically in terms of the US election, Mr Trump is seen as a unique nominee who has so far broken all conventional rules about what makes a successful presidential candidate. This makes him extremely unpredictable.
具體就美國選舉而言，特朗普被視爲一名獨特的被提名人，迄今打破了關於成功的總統候選人的所有傳統規則。這讓他完全不可預知。
Sushil Wadhwani, investment manager at GAM, the Swiss fund house, who is a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, says: “Much of the historical work on elections and markets suggests that it is the party that matters.
瑞士基金公司GAM的投資經理蘇希爾•瓦德瓦尼(Sushil Wadhwani)表示：“大量關於選舉和市場的歷史研究表明，最重要的是黨派。”瓦德瓦尼曾經擔任英國央行(BOE)貨幣政策委員會委員。
“This time is different. Trump is an unusual candidate as he is not a typical Republican. We might need to rewrite the rules in this case.”
“這次有所不同。特朗普是一個與衆不同的候選人，他不是典型的共和黨人。我們這一回可能需要改寫規則。”
The consensus is that investors should not rule out the possibility of a Trump presidency in 2017.
共識意見是，投資者不應排除特朗普在2017年就任美國總統的可能性。
Over the past two weeks, his odds of winning the election have risen from 21 per cent to 28 per cent, according to Betfair, the gambling website. Mrs Clinton’s odds have fallen over the same period, from 75 per cent to 69 per cent.
博彩網站必發(Betfair)的數據顯示，在5月中的兩週，他贏得大選的機率從21%升至28%。同期希拉里的勝選機率從75%降至69%。
Steve Dexter, chief investment officer at Copper Rock Capital, a Boston-based asset manager, says: “Trump has repeatedly surprised. The talking heads like to discount his base as just a bunch of disaffected blue-collar rednecks, but in reality the post-election polls have shown that he has drawn significant support from middle- to upper-income college-educated segments of society.
波士頓資產管理公司Copper Rock Capital的首席投資官史蒂夫•德克斯特(Steve Dexter)表示：“特朗普屢次出人意料。評論人士喜歡將他的選民基礎貶損爲只是一羣心懷不滿的藍領工人，但實際上選舉後的民調顯示，他獲得了受過大學教育的中高收入階層的大力支持。”
“He also draws from both the Republican base and the Democrat. This means he could surprise and I would suggest most [investors] still view him as a long-shot loose cannon.”
“他還獲得了共和黨基層選民和民主黨的支持，這意味着他可能讓人大吃一驚，我建議大多數（投資者）還是將他視爲一個不容小視的危險人物爲好。”
